Multiple Chances For Snow

The active pattern continues for Lake Orion.

First, a weak low pressure system is moving through the area right now, and it will give Lake Orion up to 1" of snow tonight, which could make the morning commute tomorrow somewhat slick.

Second, a slightly stronger low pressure system will track through the Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Michigan, likely giving Lake Orion about 1-3" of additional snowfall on Saturday.

Third, and most exciting, all major forecast models have shown some type of system affecting the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As is usual this year, the models have been maddeningly inconsistent with regards to the track of this system, but I am confident that Lake Orion will see some notable weather on Tuesday. At this time, I would lean towards the precipitation type being snow, although that could change. If everything works out, this could be a rather significant storm, and could give you guys a chance of a snow day on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. This is the main system I will be keeping an eye on, and I will have another post up tomorrow afternoon.

As always, feel free to leave questions/comments in the comments section below.

Final Prediction

I stand by pretty much everything I posted last night...the following video should supplement things nicely. I am predicting no snow day for Lake Orion tomorrow. Right now there is around 2.5" of snow on the ground...I am expecting us to end up with anywhere from 4-5" of snow...although isolated totals of over 5" of snow are possible, especially on the east side of town.

Quick Update

Just wanted to post a quick update to say that things are still on track with regards to this storm. The evening forecast models came in with similar solutions regarding snow totals in Lake Orion, and I am still expecting 4-6" here. I am still not sure why the National Weather Service is only forecasting 2-3" here, and I am also not sure why we aren't under a Winter Weather Advisory. I believe the models support what I am forecasting. So, either the NWS or I are going to be wrong, and I really think it's going to be them. The one change I saw with the evening forecast models is that the heavier snowfall amounts should extend slightly further north then I previously expected.

All in all, this looks to be a good plowable snowfall, albeit one that is unlikely to give you guys a snow day. I will have a more informative blog post or video up during the day tomorrow, and I will make my final snow day prediction around 8:30 p.m. tomorrow evening.

4-6" of snow to fall on Lake Orion

Question and comments are always appreciated and can be left below. The plan is to have a blog entry early tomorrow morning after the national championship game is over, then to have a video & final snowfall forecast/snow day prediction tomorrow evening.

Video Forecast

Questions and comments are always appreciated and can be left below. I plan on having another video forecast up around 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

Note: There should be a video forecast up around 9:00

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SE Michigan Returns To An Active Pattern

After nearly a month of only minor snow events, it is becoming increasingly likely that SE Michigan could see a notable snow event in about a week. For several days now, the major forecast models have shown the possibility of a low pressure system tracking through Minnesota/Wisconsin/The UP of Michigan and giving SE Michigan a potentially significant snow event. Seeing that this event is about a week out, I won't make any attempt to forecast snow events yet, but will explain what the models are showing and why I am starting to become confident in a winter storm affecting SE Michigan next weekend.

Also, I will warn people now that if this system gives SE Michigan a snowstorm, the most likely timeframe for the snowstorm to happen is next Saturday. Therefore, unless this is an extremely strong event, a snow day is unlikely with this storm. However, since I will be in Lake Orion until next Sunday, I will certainly be paying attention to this storm and blogging about it.

Now, for those of you who regularly follow the weather in SE Michigan, you are probably wondering just how a low pressure system can track through Minnesota, or Wisconsin, or the U.P., and still give SE Michigan a snowstorm threat. Normally, when a storm system takes that track, it means a rainstorm for SE Michigan. However, two things support this system being different. First, there is going to be a cold airmass over SE Michigan for over a week before next weekend's storm hits. This will make it harder for any warm air advection accompanying the low pressure system to push temperatures above freezing. Second, and in my opinion, more importantly, the energy associated with this low pressure system is what's known as a low amplitude wave. This means that the wave will not dig as much, resulting in less warm air advection, and allowing for snow to the south and east of the low track, unlike with most low pressure systems. However, I am still skeptical of SE Michigan getting snow from a low pressure track so far to the NW. Although all models have shown us getting snow despite the low pressure track, I cannot help but feel that it wouldn't take much of a change to give us potential mixing issues. At this time, potential mixing issues are the biggest problem I can see with this storm.

More certain to me is the track and strength of the storm. Again, if you've been following the weather this winter, you know that the main problem lately for SE Michigan is that storms have been tracking way to the south. That won't be an issue with this storm, as the energy associated with it will be entering the U.S. at a farther north latitude than other energy lately. With regards to strength, the GFS forecast model has consistently been showing a fairly strong (sub 1000 mb) low pressure system, so as of right now, I feel that it is likely that someone will get a good snowstorm out of this.

I will likely have another post up sometime tomorrow afternoon. Until then, feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments section below, they are always appreciated.