Early first snow of season?

For several days now, the first snow of the season has looked to come this Sunday Night. Forecast models have shown a strong cold front moving through the area Sunday Morning, followed by a large upper level low gravitating down from Canada and sitting over the area in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe. This upper low will bring down cold air, likely dropping our low temperatures Sunday Night to around 30 degrees. This obviously would be cold enough for snow, and the upper low will bring enough moisture into the area to likely kick up some snow showers in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Now, this won't be a "pretty" snowfall. Expect the snow to mix in with rain at times on Monday, first of all. Also, even when the precipitation is falling as all snow, it likely won't stick to the ground due to the ground temperatures still being above freezing. So, accumulations will be minimal.

Here is my first call forecast on the potential snow event in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Chance of seeing our first flakes of the season: 60%
Reasoning: For several days, forecast models have shown this upper low bringing with it precipitation. If temperatures are cold enough to support snow, it will snow. The only question is, will temperatures actually be cold enough? If the system is weaker, temperatures will probably stay above freezing, and therefore no snow would fall.

Chance of a snowday: 0%
Reasoning: Don't even ask about a snowday. It. Won't. Happen. Even if we do get snow (and I really think we will) ground temperatures won't allow for any snow accumulation. All this will do is make the roads slippery, which would slow down traffic but not make conditions dangerous enough to warrant a snowday.

Predicted Accumulation: Less than 1"
Reasoning: Although the snow showers may at some time be heavy, as I've mentioned a couple of times before, the ground simply won't support snow accumulations.

Bottom Line: This is just a prototypical first snow event of the season, with minimal accumulations. Still, it's nice to see that the season may be starting a little earlier than usual this year.