Snow chances are just about over

Isolated showers are expected to develop today, but temperatures will warm enough so that all precipitation will fall as rain in Lake Orion. All in all, this event was a disappointment, as nearly all precipitation fell as rain. However, some areas, including my house, did see their first snowflakes of the season with this event.

Short Term "Snow" Event Forecast

The rain/snow showers for tonight have tapered off, and there is little to no chance of further precipitation until tomorrow. Then, pop up showers will once again develop, although there will be less moisture in the atmosphere so coverage should be more limited than today. There is once again a chance of snow in the showers tomorrow. Once again, showers should dissipate as the sun sets tomorrow. Wednesday will once again be cold, but with no chance for precipitation. A major warm-up will ensue by the end of the week, ending any chances of snow for the time being.

First snow of season!

Let the record show that the first snowflakes of the 2008-2009 winter season occurred at 5:07 p.m. on Monday, October 27th, 2008.

I'll be back with a more detailed forecast later tonight.

First snow still expected early next week.

There's not much new to speak of on the storm system that will affect our area next week. The first snow of the season is still expected early next week.

This may be my last post until Sunday Night or Monday Morning, as I will be at a wedding in Pennsylvania until Sunday Night. It all depends on if I'll have computer access or not there. If I do, I'll try to post once between now and when I get back, if I don't have computer access, then this will obviously be the last post until I get back.

Early first snow of season?

For several days now, the first snow of the season has looked to come this Sunday Night. Forecast models have shown a strong cold front moving through the area Sunday Morning, followed by a large upper level low gravitating down from Canada and sitting over the area in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe. This upper low will bring down cold air, likely dropping our low temperatures Sunday Night to around 30 degrees. This obviously would be cold enough for snow, and the upper low will bring enough moisture into the area to likely kick up some snow showers in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Now, this won't be a "pretty" snowfall. Expect the snow to mix in with rain at times on Monday, first of all. Also, even when the precipitation is falling as all snow, it likely won't stick to the ground due to the ground temperatures still being above freezing. So, accumulations will be minimal.

Here is my first call forecast on the potential snow event in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Chance of seeing our first flakes of the season: 60%
Reasoning: For several days, forecast models have shown this upper low bringing with it precipitation. If temperatures are cold enough to support snow, it will snow. The only question is, will temperatures actually be cold enough? If the system is weaker, temperatures will probably stay above freezing, and therefore no snow would fall.

Chance of a snowday: 0%
Reasoning: Don't even ask about a snowday. It. Won't. Happen. Even if we do get snow (and I really think we will) ground temperatures won't allow for any snow accumulation. All this will do is make the roads slippery, which would slow down traffic but not make conditions dangerous enough to warrant a snowday.

Predicted Accumulation: Less than 1"
Reasoning: Although the snow showers may at some time be heavy, as I've mentioned a couple of times before, the ground simply won't support snow accumulations.

Bottom Line: This is just a prototypical first snow event of the season, with minimal accumulations. Still, it's nice to see that the season may be starting a little earlier than usual this year.