Obviously, the severe weather portion of my forecast did not pan out. The problem was there was absolutely no instability over SE Michigan to bring the stronger winds down to the surface with the area of showers that moved over you guys on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously, this led to the forecast busting, despite the fact that there was a tornado watch over the area. There were a few tornado warnings and damaging wind reports with the showers, so I can't say that the forecast completely failed, but it still wasn't very good. Overall I'd give myself a "D" grade on the severe weather forecast.
As for the winds, I believe I did much better on those. About the only thing that I screwed up on, as far as I can tell, is that perhaps the peak wind gusts on Tuesday did not quite reach the 50mph I had forecasted. At the very least, they were still in the upper 40's though. Overall, I would give myself an "A" grade on the wind forecast.
Anyways, there will most likely be a fairly long break before my next post, as I seriously doubt there will be another low pressure system of this magnitude affecting you guys for a while, and climatologically, you guys are probably still a few weeks away from a storm system that will bring accumulating snow.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
"Nowcast" Update
The "nowcast" is in quotes because I can't really do true nowcast updates due to having classes and other stuff going on throughout the day today, but it is certainly worth mentioning that it now looks like the line of storms may affect the Lake Orion area a little earlier than I previously expected; somewhere between 1-3 p.m. Other than that the forecast remains on track with a good chance of some damaging winds and a chance of an isolated tornado when the line hits.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Extremely Strong Fall Storm To Have Adverse Impacts
I know I don't usually blog about anything but snow storms, but considering the potential implications of this storm for SE Michigan, I have decided to post about it.
Essentially, good divergence in the jet stream has caused a low pressure system to form over Kansas. Over the next 24 hours this low will move NE into Northern Minnesota and strengthen rapidly before moving into Canada. In fact, this could be the strongest low pressure system ever in Minnesota, as seen below. This system will have adverse impacts on Michigan weather over the next two days.
There will be two main impacts with regards to the weather from this system: severe thunderstorms and non-thunderstorm wind gusts. I will explain each one separately, then explain the combined impacts to everyday life.
Thunderstorms: This system will send a strong cold front through SE Michigan tomorrow afternoon. Right along this cold front will be a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Although there will not be too much instability in the atmosphere, with such strong upper level dynamics, not much instability will be needed to form a long line of severe thunderstorms. With 100+ mph winds just above ground level tomorrow, it won't take too much to mix some very strong winds down to the surface, and the line of thunderstorms will do the trick. Therefore, 60+ mph wind gusts are extremely likely when the line of storms hit, with some areas potentially receiving 75+ mph wind gusts. A widespread damaging wind event seems quite likely with this line of storms. In addition, there will be some rotation in the atmosphere so I feel that there will likely be some isolated tornadoes reported as well. Please note that this most likely will not be a widespread tornado outbreak. The tornado threat is secondary to the damaging wind threat, but is worth mentioning. The threat of hail with this line of storms is essentially zero. At this time I feel that the most likely timeframe for this line of storms to impact Lake Orion is between 2-5 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gusts: Even besides the line of thunderstorms, the pressure gradient will be very large due to the extremely low pressure in Minnesota. A large pressure gradient means that winds will be strong, and I expect sustained winds of 30-40 mph after the cold front moves through tomorrow, with wind gusts from 50-60 mph. Winds will calm down tomorrow night, but will increase again on Wednesday, with the expected winds being similar to those on Tuesday.
Impacts:
- Power Outages
- Trees being blown over, shingles being torn off roofs, etc.
- Unsecured items being blown around
Essentially the impacts will be similar to those of most severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts that move through. I will say I believe there will be fairly widespread wind damage due to (a) the extremely strong wind gusts that will likely accompany the line of storms (b) the length of the high wind event of SE Michigan. There is a nonzero chance that you guys could have school called off on Wednesday due to a power outage; however, predicting power outages is futile. It's not a high chance, but it is worth mentioning.
That's all for now, thanks for reading.
Essentially, good divergence in the jet stream has caused a low pressure system to form over Kansas. Over the next 24 hours this low will move NE into Northern Minnesota and strengthen rapidly before moving into Canada. In fact, this could be the strongest low pressure system ever in Minnesota, as seen below. This system will have adverse impacts on Michigan weather over the next two days.
There will be two main impacts with regards to the weather from this system: severe thunderstorms and non-thunderstorm wind gusts. I will explain each one separately, then explain the combined impacts to everyday life.
Thunderstorms: This system will send a strong cold front through SE Michigan tomorrow afternoon. Right along this cold front will be a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Although there will not be too much instability in the atmosphere, with such strong upper level dynamics, not much instability will be needed to form a long line of severe thunderstorms. With 100+ mph winds just above ground level tomorrow, it won't take too much to mix some very strong winds down to the surface, and the line of thunderstorms will do the trick. Therefore, 60+ mph wind gusts are extremely likely when the line of storms hit, with some areas potentially receiving 75+ mph wind gusts. A widespread damaging wind event seems quite likely with this line of storms. In addition, there will be some rotation in the atmosphere so I feel that there will likely be some isolated tornadoes reported as well. Please note that this most likely will not be a widespread tornado outbreak. The tornado threat is secondary to the damaging wind threat, but is worth mentioning. The threat of hail with this line of storms is essentially zero. At this time I feel that the most likely timeframe for this line of storms to impact Lake Orion is between 2-5 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.
Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gusts: Even besides the line of thunderstorms, the pressure gradient will be very large due to the extremely low pressure in Minnesota. A large pressure gradient means that winds will be strong, and I expect sustained winds of 30-40 mph after the cold front moves through tomorrow, with wind gusts from 50-60 mph. Winds will calm down tomorrow night, but will increase again on Wednesday, with the expected winds being similar to those on Tuesday.
Impacts:
- Power Outages
- Trees being blown over, shingles being torn off roofs, etc.
- Unsecured items being blown around
Essentially the impacts will be similar to those of most severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts that move through. I will say I believe there will be fairly widespread wind damage due to (a) the extremely strong wind gusts that will likely accompany the line of storms (b) the length of the high wind event of SE Michigan. There is a nonzero chance that you guys could have school called off on Wednesday due to a power outage; however, predicting power outages is futile. It's not a high chance, but it is worth mentioning.
That's all for now, thanks for reading.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
First Post Of The Season
Since I'm sure people will be coming over here due to the insanely bad "commercial" I posted, I guess it's probably time to make a post discussing what I will be doing RE: the blog for the 2010-11 school year. As most of you know, I have graduated from LOHS and, as some of you know, I am now a freshman at the University of Oklahoma pursuing a degree in meteorology. However, I would like to continue to gain experience in meteorology this year, and since all I am taking this year in school are gen-ed and basic meteorology courses, I have decided that it would be a good idea to keep myself "sharp" in meteorology by continuing to forecast snow amounts and snow days for the Lake Orion area. In addition, I had a few people still at LOHS tell me they would really appreciate it if I continued to predict snow days this year. Therefore, like I said after last winter was over, I will continue the blog this year, although this will most likely be the last year of the blog, as at some point I will have to move on from being a Lake Orion SuperSenior (I know, I know, it's sad).
I have two goals for the blog this year, one for accuracy and one for popularity. RE: Accuracy, I got every prediction right last year, so I would like to do that this year. RE: Popularity, I got ~ 10,000 views during February last year. Since the blog will run approximately 5 months (November thru March), I would like to get 50,000 views this year.
The approximate posting guidelines will be as follows: I almost certainly will not bother with posting about possible storms that are still farther than 7 days out, due to the fact that details change so much in the long range timeframe. Between 4-7 days out, I will usually post a brief 1-3 paragraph summary about possible storms. This will just be a simple overview, not very in-depth, perhaps with a few graphics. Between 0-3 days out, I will usually post a more in-depth discussion about possible storms, almost always with graphics, and with a snow day grade on the scale of A, B, C, D, E. In addition, once we get within ~48 hours of the storm, I will start posting maps with my forecasted snow totals for SE Michigan. In my final post before a storm hits, I will make a Yes/No prediction as to whether Lake Orion will get a snow day.
In addition to what I discuss in my posts, readers of this blog are welcome to use the comments section to post questions/comments. I moderate all comments because spammers have found out about this blog, but I will eventually check your comments and answer your questions.
Finally, if you would like to make a recommendation for additional things that I could include in this blog, feel free to notify me in some way. I have already received a request to do video forecasts, and will likely do a few of those during the season.
As always, thanks for reading.
-John Schlenner
I have two goals for the blog this year, one for accuracy and one for popularity. RE: Accuracy, I got every prediction right last year, so I would like to do that this year. RE: Popularity, I got ~ 10,000 views during February last year. Since the blog will run approximately 5 months (November thru March), I would like to get 50,000 views this year.
The approximate posting guidelines will be as follows: I almost certainly will not bother with posting about possible storms that are still farther than 7 days out, due to the fact that details change so much in the long range timeframe. Between 4-7 days out, I will usually post a brief 1-3 paragraph summary about possible storms. This will just be a simple overview, not very in-depth, perhaps with a few graphics. Between 0-3 days out, I will usually post a more in-depth discussion about possible storms, almost always with graphics, and with a snow day grade on the scale of A, B, C, D, E. In addition, once we get within ~48 hours of the storm, I will start posting maps with my forecasted snow totals for SE Michigan. In my final post before a storm hits, I will make a Yes/No prediction as to whether Lake Orion will get a snow day.
In addition to what I discuss in my posts, readers of this blog are welcome to use the comments section to post questions/comments. I moderate all comments because spammers have found out about this blog, but I will eventually check your comments and answer your questions.
Finally, if you would like to make a recommendation for additional things that I could include in this blog, feel free to notify me in some way. I have already received a request to do video forecasts, and will likely do a few of those during the season.
As always, thanks for reading.
-John Schlenner
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