Extremely Strong Fall Storm To Have Adverse Impacts

I know I don't usually blog about anything but snow storms, but considering the potential implications of this storm for SE Michigan, I have decided to post about it.

Essentially, good divergence in the jet stream has caused a low pressure system to form over Kansas. Over the next 24 hours this low will move NE into Northern Minnesota and strengthen rapidly before moving into Canada. In fact, this could be the strongest low pressure system ever in Minnesota, as seen below. This system will have adverse impacts on Michigan weather over the next two days.


There will be two main impacts with regards to the weather from this system: severe thunderstorms and non-thunderstorm wind gusts. I will explain each one separately, then explain the combined impacts to everyday life.

Thunderstorms: This system will send a strong cold front through SE Michigan tomorrow afternoon. Right along this cold front will be a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Although there will not be too much instability in the atmosphere, with such strong upper level dynamics, not much instability will be needed to form a long line of severe thunderstorms. With 100+ mph winds just above ground level tomorrow, it won't take too much to mix some very strong winds down to the surface, and the line of thunderstorms will do the trick. Therefore, 60+ mph wind gusts are extremely likely when the line of storms hit, with some areas potentially receiving 75+ mph wind gusts. A widespread damaging wind event seems quite likely with this line of storms. In addition, there will be some rotation in the atmosphere so I feel that there will likely be some isolated tornadoes reported as well. Please note that this most likely will not be a widespread tornado outbreak. The tornado threat is secondary to the damaging wind threat, but is worth mentioning. The threat of hail with this line of storms is essentially zero. At this time I feel that the most likely timeframe for this line of storms to impact Lake Orion is between 2-5 p.m. tomorrow afternoon.

Non-Thunderstorm Wind Gusts: Even besides the line of thunderstorms, the pressure gradient will be very large due to the extremely low pressure in Minnesota. A large pressure gradient means that winds will be strong, and I expect sustained winds of 30-40 mph after the cold front moves through tomorrow, with wind gusts from 50-60 mph. Winds will calm down tomorrow night, but will increase again on Wednesday, with the expected winds being similar to those on Tuesday.

Impacts:
- Power Outages
- Trees being blown over, shingles being torn off roofs, etc.
- Unsecured items being blown around

Essentially the impacts will be similar to those of most severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts that move through. I will say I believe there will be fairly widespread wind damage due to (a) the extremely strong wind gusts that will likely accompany the line of storms (b) the length of the high wind event of SE Michigan. There is a nonzero chance that you guys could have school called off on Wednesday due to a power outage; however, predicting power outages is futile. It's not a high chance, but it is worth mentioning.

That's all for now, thanks for reading.