Storm Total

At my house, it was 9.9". Lake Orion received some of the highest accumulations from this event, as we were in the path of one of the heaviest bands of snow.

The bottom line is that this was a quick, intense snowfall event, with general accumulations ranging from 6-10", and some areas seeing as many as 13" of snow.

Snow Day?

In my opinion, we'll probably have school called in the next 15-30 minutes. Warren Consolidated Schools just closed, and they close maybe once a year, so I think we're good.

EDIT: And sure enough, we did get a snow day.

EDIT #2: We're probably heading for the upper end of my forecasted 6-10", and maybe more.

Final Snow Day Prediction

Well, here we go. My second possibility of why we might not get a snow day tomorrow may just happen. Here's that possibility (in the same form as I posted it yesterday).
Possibility Two: The storm slows down more than expected. The snow starts at around 4:00 a.m. Friday, and only 1-2" of snow is on the ground by 6:00 a.m. In this case we could have school, because our school got burned the last time they called a snow day on the expectation that significant snow accumulations would occur during the day. (That occurred on February 1st, 2008, when we were supposed to get 4-7" during the day and ended up only getting 3" of snow total.) If this possibility becomes reality, get ready for a long, long, long commute home Friday, as the bust potential on this storm is extremely low. However, I just don't think I can see our school not realizing that it would be extremely dangerous to send all students to school in near-whiteout conditions Friday Morning.





Well, guess what? The snow is now expected to start around, you guessed it, 4:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. It's always something that prevents the perfect snow day possibilities. However, I still think we'll have a snow day. This is because the heaviest snow will occur right during morning rush hour tomorrow. Whiteout conditions are possible, and roads will be horrible, as the road crews will not be able to keep up with the amount of snow that will fall.

Then, tomorrow afternoon, if we have school, we could easily end up snowed in, as drifts of well over a foot are possible because of 30+ mph wind gusts tomorrow. And my guess is that school officials don't want students driving to school in whiteout conditions, and that they also don't want students to be potentially snowed in after school tomorrow (although my guess is that if we had school, the school would do it's absolute best to make sure the the parking lots are as clear as possible after school). Therefore, my prediction is:

YES, we will have a snow day tomorrow.

Now, for the actual snow discussion:

A low pressure system will track from Eastern Colorado to Central Ohio. To the north and east of this low pressure system, a heavy precipitation shield will develop. Snow will start at around 4:00 a.m. Friday Morning, and quickly become heavy. Snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour are likely much of Friday Morning. In fact, in the stronger bands, thundersnow and snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour are possible. The thing that will limit snowfall accumulations is that this is a short-duration winter storm. Much of the snow will fall between 4:00 a.m. and noon tomorrow, with the snow tapering off to light snow showers tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, accumulations have been toned down from 8-12" to 6-10". However, I would expect our final total to be closer to 10" than 6".

Final Snowfall Map:

New Snowfall Map

Main discussion will be up by 5:00 p.m. tonight, but until then, here's my new snowfall map. I made a move to lower snowfall totals across the board by 2", because most forecast models have decreased the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall from this storm. Still though, Lake Orion should receive 6-10" of snow from this storm, with the potential for 12" or more of snowfall if we are in the path of one of the heavy bands of snow. Even the lowest snowfall amount that I have forecasted (and my forecast totals are lower than most other people's) is 6", which should still be enough to get a snow day tomorrow. Therefore, I will keep our snow day chances at very high.

Potentially Epic Snowstorm To Affect SE Michigan Tomorrow Night and Friday

Wow. That's all I have to say about the potential this system has. This should easily be our biggest snowstorm since the New Year's Day 2008 Blizzard (12" of snow at my house), and it has the potential to be even bigger than that. A snow day is extremely likely on Friday, and I have no qualms about raising the alert level to very high.

Here's what's going to go down:

Right now, the low pressure system that will affect us is over Los Angeles. It is so strong that snow is being reported in the hills of Southern California. From Los Angeles, this system will race to the ENE, eventually tracking from Northern Illinois to Northern Indiana to Northern Ohio on Friday. This forecasted track is further south than what was forecast this morning, so a lot more snow and a lot less ice is now expected. In fact, the ice storm threat for Lake Orion is nearly nil. The snowstorm threat however, is stronger than ever.

As the storm tracks ENE, it will run into a moist and unstable airmass over the Great Lakes. This will result in a favorable environment for heavy snow to occur in SE Michigan after about Midnight tomorrow. The snow will fall at a rate in excess of 1" per hour for much of Friday Morning, before tapering off Friday Afternoon and ending completely Friday Evening. When all is said and done, Lake Orion (and much of SE Michigan) will likely have in excess of 8" of snow.

Now, while only 2-5" of snow will be on the ground by 6:00 a.m. Friday Morning, there will be near-whiteout to whiteout conditions making driving nearly impossible. Also, there will be wind gusts of up to 30 mph, meaning that snow will be blowing across the main roads that are plowed, and drifting on the back roads that aren't plowed. Therefore, I feel confident that a snow day will occur on Friday.

There are only two possibilities in which I can't see a snow day occurring, and in my opinion the chances of each possibility are low.

Possibility One: The storm track moves further south, in fact, too far south. It would take a huge shift to the south, but it theoretically could happen. In this case, we would only get 4-8" of snow, with only 1-3" of snow falling before 6:00 a.m. Friday because the main precipitation shield would be too far to our south. However, I can't see such a huge shift occurring.

Possibility Two: The storm slows down more than expected. The snow starts at around 4:00 a.m. Friday, and only 1-2" of snow is on the ground by 6:00 a.m. In this case we could have school, because our school got burned the last time they called a snow day on the expectation that significant snow accumulations would occur during the day. (That occurred on February 1st, 2008, when we were supposed to get 4-7" during the day and ended up only getting 3" of snow total.) If this possibility becomes reality, get ready for a long, long, long commute home Friday, as the bust potential on this storm is extremely low. However, I just don't think I can see our school not realizing that it would be extremely dangerous to send all students to school in near-whiteout conditions Friday Morning.

So, all in all, we should have an extended Christmas Break due to a likely snow day on Friday.

Here's my snow map for SE Michigan. Note that there will likely be some 12+" totals where convective banding of snow occurs. Where convective banding of snow occurs, there will be thundersnow and the potential of snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour.

Snow Day Likely on Friday

I'll post a more complete discussion this afternoon, but for now, here's my snow and ice maps for the Thursday Night - Friday winter storm.

The labeling is a little unclear, but I have Lake Orion in the 6-10" snow accumulation zone and the 0.01-0.1" ice accumulation zone.

Complete discussion will be up at around 6:00.

Tonight's Forecast

A weak low pressure system will track from Tennessee up to Cleveland by tomorrow morning. To the north of this system, snow is occurring. The snow is currently edging into SE Michigan, and should reach the Lake Orion area in around 3 hours. After the snow starts, it will quickly become heavy, with snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour occurring. Still though, I don't expect a snow day tomorrow. The snow will only fall for 6 hours or so, with total accumulations in the 3-6" range. 6" is usually a borderline snow day, but I honestly don't expect a snow day even if we get that much snow. This is because schools usually all call snow days at once. However, the schools that only get 3" of snow obviously won't call school, and therefore the few schools that actually get 6" of snow won't call school, for fear of backlash from being one of the only schools to close. I can think of a similar event from last year that resulted in us having around 6" of snow, but still not having a snow day. Here's the link:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow200802131144

I expect a similar event tonight, with a lot of people getting 3-4" of snow, a few people getting 5-6" of snow, and almost no one calling school. Therefore, my prediction is:

NO snow day tomorrow.

Here's my snow map for tomorrow:

Note that although Lake Orion is in the 3-6" zone, we are on the northern edge of that zone; therefore, I tend to think we will be closer to 3" of accumulation than 6" of accumulation.

Preview

I'll have a discussion of tonight's system up at around 5:00 p.m.

In the meantime, let me state that we have a great possibility of a snow day on Friday. It's looking very likely that we will either have a major snow storm or a major ice storm starting late Thursday Night and ending late Friday Afternoon. I'll raise the snow day alert to medium for Friday, and in all likelihood, it will eventually be raised to high or very high.

Tomorrow Night's Forecast

A weak low pressure system will move through the area tomorrow night. The result of this will be an area of moderate snowfall moving in through our area. This is my current snowfall forecast for SE Michigan.

I will discuss this storm in more detail tomorrow evening. Right now, it is looking more like a storm that will just disrupt the Wednesday Morning commute, as opposed to a storm that will cause a snow day.

3 Systems Moving Through Next Week

Well, we are moving into the most active part of winter so far, with three distinct systems moving through in the next week. I'll talk about all three of these systems and the snow day chances they will bring us right now.

System One: Tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will move through the area. Ahead of this front, there will be a lot of rain, with the possibility of even hearing a few rumbles of thunder! Temperatures will be over 40 degrees ahead of this front, but will abruptly drop into the mid 20's shortly after the front moves through. Precipitation will therefore quickly turn into snow, but only a dusting of snow should fall, as the cold front is bringing in very dry air behind it, which will work to move the precipitation out of our area. The big story from this system is that all of the rain that falls ahead of the cold front will quickly turn to ice, potentially making roads very hazardous to drive on during the day tomorrow. However, don't expect a snow day from this system, unless the 40 mph wind gusts behind it cause a power outage at the school. All that will happen before school tomorrow is a lot of rain, so there's obviously no reason to call a snow day. Just be prepared for some bad driving conditions on the way home from school tomorrow.

System Two: Snow will fall Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning as an area of precipitation moves through SE Michigan. There should be several hours of moderate snowfall, likely leading to accumulations of 3-7" across Oakland County. One thing to watch out for from this system is that an area of ice accumulations is possible over SE Michigan if the track of the system is further north than currently forecast. I still wouldn't expect a snow day out of this one, but there is the chance. We have a pretty good timeframe, with the heaviest snow expected to fall early Wednesday Morning, and there is the chance to see 6+" out of this system. However, I believe right now that this is looking like a 4" "nuisiance snow", one that makes roadways bad, but not bad enough to lead to a snowday.

Here is my map for the Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning System:

System Three: The real system to watch for a snowday is, in my opinion, the one that will cause heavy precipitation to fall all day and into the night on Thursday. It's a low pressure system that will track out of the Rockies and into Lower Michigan. The problem with this system is that it may bring in enough warm air so that we once again may see only rain from it. However, the potential also exists for an ice or snow storm Thursday and Thursday Night. Basically, it's unclear what's going to happen. But still, know that there is the potential for a significant winter weather event Thursday into Thursday Night.

The Bottom Line: Three different systems moving through in the next five days means that there will be a chance of a snow day almost every day next week. Days with the best chance for a snowday will be determined as more is known about System Two and System Three, but for now, suffice it to say that this is the most promising week of winter so far.

Surprise Snow Day? Maybe...

Well, good news. Chances of a snow day, while still low, are better than I thought they would be. More snow than expected will move into the region overnight, with up to 3" of accumulation possible by tomorrow morning. Also, roads will freeze over tonight. Combine this with the snow, and back roads will be very bad tomorrow morning. It would seem to be a good setup for a snow day, but keep in mind that these scenarios in which roads freeze over, while promising, never really seem to produce actual snow days. So, while my official prediction is that there won't be a snow day tomorrow, the potential is definitely still there, and better than it was this morning.

It's snowing here already, which means the changeover has occurred over 90 minutes earlier than expected. Great for accumulations, great for snow day chances, but my gut instinct still tells me we'll be in school tomorrow.

For my official snow map on this winter storm, which started last night and will end tomorrow morning, see a few posts below.

Snow Day

Well, we're not getting any ice tonight so we obviously won't get a snow day tomorrow. Just thought I'd put that out there, as there was some hype about a potential snow day at school today.

Complex Storm System

As of right now, I do not expect Lake Orion to get a snow day tomorrow. Icing potential is less than what it was this morning, which will greatly reduce our chances for a snow day tomorrow and Wednesday. Since there likely won't be significant icing, we will be left with a mixed bag of precipitation tonight through Wednesday Morning. Precipitation will likely start as snow tonight, then mix in with rain tomorrow (drastically limiting accumulations) before changing back over to snow tomorrow night. Simply put, without any freezing rain, we will not have enough snow for a snow day.

Here is my snow map for Southeast Michigan:

The next storm will be a nightmare to forecast

A low pressure system is going to move from the Texas Panhandle to Lake Erie by Wednesday Morning. This system will be strong enough to pull up a large amount of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is that the warm air will give this system a lot of moisture to work with, but that bad thing is that the warm air will likely warm temperatures enough so that at least some of our precipitation will likely fall as rain. Expect precipitation from this system to start as snow tomorrow afternoon and continue overnight. Tuesday Morning's commute will be horrible, as there will likely be around 3" of snow on the ground already and snow will likely still be falling. The main question with this storm is what will happen during the day on Tuesday. Depending on where the storm tracks, we could get a lot of snow, a lot of ice, or a lot of rain. Right now, it is looking like we will get a lot of rain. Then as the storm moves away, we will likely get a few more inches of wraparound snow Wednesday Morning.

As of right now, I will put a LOW snow day alert out for Wednesday and Thursday, due to the fact that we may yet get ice or snow as opposed to rain on Tuesday, and also due to the fact that even if we do get rain, it will all freeze over on Wednesday. This forecast is highly subject to change, as this system has been a nightmare to forecast so far and I can't see that changing. Although I would usually put out a snow map by now, there is enough uncertainty that I will hold off on doing so until this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Light Snow Today

There's nothing much to say about the snow that will fall today. A weak area of low pressure will move to our north, triggering light snow across all of SE Michigan. There's no need for a snowfall map with this event, as all areas in SE Michigan should see 1-3" of snow. Here in Lake Orion, we'll probably be leaning towards 3" as opposed to 1". The only story with this event is that strong southwest winds during the day will lead to the blowing and drifting of snow. After the snow ends this afternoon, there will be a brief lull in winds, before they shift to the northwest tonight as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes down from the northwest. These strong northwest winds will likely blow the snow around some more. But all in all, this is the type of event we see many times every season, so it should be no big deal. What is worth making a big deal about is a strong system moving in mid-week. Depending on the track of this system, we could get a snowstorm, an ice storm, or yes, unfortunately, even a rain storm. I'll post about that system starting tomorrow.

Total Snowfall at my House:
9:00 a.m. - 0.3"
10:00 a.m. - 0.8"
11:00 a.m. - 1.1"
12:30 p.m. - 1.4"
2:30 p.m. - 1.8"
5:30 p.m. - 2.6"
7:30 p.m. - 2.9"

A Quick Burst Of Snow Tonight

A cold front will move through late this afternoon, and there will be precipitation along this cold front. Since temperatures will likely get into the upper 30's today, the precipitation will likely start off as rain or a wintry mix, but it will change to snow behind the cold front. We won't get a lot of snow with this event, but the snowfall rates will likely be impressive. There will likely be a brief period of near-whiteout to whiteout conditions tonight, as the snowfall will be very heavy at times and there will be a southwest wind during this event helping to blow the snow around a little bit. Lake Orion will likely pick up a quick 1-3" of snow with this event this evening. Not enough for a snow day, obviously, but if rain is the precipitation type at the start of this event, expect back roads to be icy tomorrow morning if they aren't icy already (mine are already icy).

Snowfall Map:

Not Good

Well, that really couldn't have been a bigger bust for the first "major" winter storm if I tried. I'll be frank about this one. I (along with other meteorologists in Detroit) made one big mistake. I overestimated the amount of snow that would fall overnight. Here in Lake Orion, we'll still end up with about 6", but about 2" of that will fall during the day today, when it doesn't have any effect on school being in session. And another mistake was that I underestimated the strength of the dry slot. We only got 0.4" of snow overnight, for a total of 3.9", which obviously isn't enough for a snow day. Basically, the dry air prevented any substantial snow amounts from falling last night, which killed our chances for a snow day. This isn't even one of those days where I can say that the school district should have called school. If you're looking for someone to blame for this bust of a snow day, blame me.

Final Prediction

The all-important question that will determine snow accumulations in Lake Orion tonight is...will we be dry-slotted? Dry-slotting occurs when dry air moves in behind the low pressure system, resulting in a break in snowfall. We probably need 4+" to get a snow day tomorrow, and as long as we don't get dry-slotted for an extended period of time, that will probably happen. This is a heavy, wet snow that will make rush-hour traffic tomorrow morning terrible, especially as there is probably a layer of slush under the snow. What I will say is that it is a tough call as to whether or not we in Lake Orion will get a snow day tomorrow, as we will probably be right on the edge of the extended dry-slotting. However, I think we manage to pick up around 4.5" of snow tonight for a storm total of around 6", which is probably good enough for a snow day tomorrow.

Therefore, my prediction is YES, we will get a snow day tomorrow. A tough first prediction to make for sure though, and I'm not just saying that so I have an excuse if we have school tomorrow. If we have school tomorrow, I will freely admit that I was wrong.


Here is my snow day chances map. What is the 50% line? It is the general snow day line. Areas to the N of the line have a greater than 50% chance of a snow day, and areas to the S of the line have a less than 50% chance of a snow day.

EDITED MAP: Because I mixed up Lake Orion and Flint.

Update

The forecast seems to be on track. Although the low pressure system is tracking further west than expected, we somehow have managed to have all of our precipitation fall as snow. The National Weather Service therefore upgraded Oakland County to a Winter Storm Warning. Although we only have 1.4" of snow so far (at my house), 3-7" more of snow is expected tonight. Therefore, I will keep the snow day alert level at high

To the person from Carmen-Ainsworth High School: I will make a prediction for that high school and include in my prediction tonight a graphic showing the general "snow day" line. Areas to the north of this line will likely close school tomorrow, while areas to the south of this line will likely not close school tomorrow.

Update

One problem with this storm is that the area of precipitation is not as large as expected. This may lead to the precipitation ending early, and less snow falling. Another problem is that the surface low track may be further west than expected. If this occurs, the changeover from rain to snow could occur faster than expected. If these trends continue, I will put out a new snowfall map with lower snowfall totals in a few hours, and also downgrade our alert level to medium. For now though, I'll stick with the going forecast.

Everything on track; raised alert level to high

Snow Day Alert Level: [Low] [Medium] [High] [Very High]

Read my detailed discussion in the last post, and my snowfall map in the last post, as those are still valid. And as I said in that discussion, if they were still valid this morning, I would raise the alert level to high. Currently, the National Weather Service is forecasting Lake Orion to get 4-7" of snow. I'm forecasting 5-9", and I believe that the NWS will join me in forecasting that much this afternoon. This is because the snow is occurring further south than where the NWS forecast it to fall. Therefore, we will likely get a quicker changeover to snow than is currently forecast, and thusly more snow. Other National Weather Service offices have bumped up snow totals for this event, and I believe that our National Weather Service office will soon follow.

I will make a definitive "yes" or "no" prediction on whether or not we will have a snow day by 7:35 p.m. tonight.

Use the comment feature! Ask me a question about this storm and our snow day chances through the comment feature, and I will answer it. I'll be updating this blog several times throughout the day, and will answer your questions in the updates.

MEDIUM risk of a snow day Monday.

Lead Story: Temperatures likely cold enough for snow; alert level raised to medium.

Snow Day Alert Level: [Low] [Medium] [High] [Very High]

Discussion: A low pressure system currently located in Western Kentucky is going to move to the NNE tomorrow and bring an area of heavy snow to SE Michigan from the early afternoon on. The forecast models are likely initiating temperatures a little too warm, so most of the precipitation should fall as snow. Therefore, my snowfall map will bump totals up a little bit over what most people are saying, as the heaviest precipitation will fall at the start of this event, and therefore we could receive a good more snow than forecast if precipitation starts out as snow, or if precipitation turns over to snow more quickly than expected. I expect a quick period of rain at the start of this event, turning over to snow sooner than expected. Why? Well for one, temperatures tonight are already 1-2 degrees lower than what was forecasted. Now, I know, 1-2 degrees doesn't seem like a big difference, but it could make all the difference with this storm. See, the heaviest precipitation will fall at the start of this event, so even a changeover to snow an hour quicker than expected could result in an additional inch or two more than what was forecast. Another thing that points to possible heavier accumulations is that the precipitation is starting quicker than expected. The earlier precipitation starts tomorrow, the less time temperatures have to rebound. Therefore, I expect it to start snowing sooner than expected tomorrow, resulting in the higher accumulations than generally forecast in my snowfall map below.

So, expect precipitation to begin around noontime tomorrow. It will likely start as rain or a wintry mix, transitioning over to heavy snow sometime in the early afternoon. The snowflakes at the start of this event could be huge, and snowfall rates could easily exceed 1" per hour. Snow will then continue to fall into the evening and overnight, and this snow will continue to be heavy at times, especially if we can get some lake enhancement going overnight as winds shift to the Northeast. Wraparound snow showers will then occur on Monday as the low moves away from MI.

Now, to discuss snow day chances. Why didn't I move our alert level to high? One reason: the high bust potential with this system. Just as a quick changeover to snow will result in an additional inch or two with this system, a slow changeover will result in an inch or two less than forecasted. Therefore, I played it safe for now and kept it at medium. If the current forecast holds up tomorrow morning, I will raise our chances to high. There are a lot of things going for a snow day with this system. Firstly, this will be a long event, with snow potentially falling for 24 hours from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Afternoon. This means that the plows will have to focus on the main roads, not the back roads. Also, there will be a lot of blowing and drifting of snow, resulting in major snow drifts on the back roads that will simply be impossible for buses to move through.

The bottom line: Currently forecasted accumulations would be enough for a snow day, but I will hold off on raising our alert level to high until the bust potential minimizes for this event.

Snowfall Map:

New Snowfall Map

Why the changes in the map? Well, the main difference is that the rain/snow line is probably going to be over SE Michigan. This will severely cut down on snowfall accumulations at the start of this event. However, a quick burst of heavy snow is still likely at the end of this event. Due to the fact that I am forecasting Lake Orion to get only 2-4" of snow now, I have lowered the snow day alert level back down to LOW. This is subject to change though, as a little further east track of the low could increase snowfall totals.

NOTE: After this system moves through, I'll be keeping an eye on a strong cold front that will come through on Wednesday Night. There could be blizzard conditions for a few hours with this cold front, and I'm actually a little more excited about that system right now, to be honest.

First Snow Map for Sunday Afternoon/Evening Snow Event

I'll post a detailed discussion of our updated snow day chances tonight, but for now, here's my first snowfall map for this system. As you can see, if these accumulations come to pass, it would be unlikely that we would get a snow day on Monday. Therefore, if future model runs support my current snowfall map, I will likely bump our snow day chances back down to low in my discussion tonight. However, there are still two days before this system hits, so snowfall totals still have a lot of time to be trended upwards. Stay tuned to this blog for details, and my detailed discussion will be up around 11:30 p.m. tonight!


EDITING to say sorry, but I won't have an update tonight. I'm tired, and the forecast models are all over the place. Suffice it to say, the chances of a snow day are diminishing. I will have a full discussion, and a new snow map, out when I wake up tomorrow morning.



Here's the map:

Snow Day Alert Level Upgrade

Based on forecast models coming together to give the Lake Orion area some very heavy snow Sunday Night through Monday Morning, I have upgrade the snow day alert level for Monday, December 1st to Medium.

Snow day alert level: [Low] [Medium] [High] [Very High]

Why I raised the alert level: The forecast models have all been showing some kind of storm system cutting through the Great Lakes and giving the Lake Orion area some amount of accumulating snow from Sunday Night through Monday Afternoon. Now, two of the biggest models, the GFS and the NAM, have come closer together with the latest model run. The good news is, both of these models now suggest that some very heavy snow is possible between Sunday Evening and Monday Morning as a low pressure system forms over Central Kentucky and moves north-northeastward through Ohio. Based on the latest runs of these models, one living in the Lake Orion area can expect precipitation to start off as a wintry mix Sunday Evening, transitioning to very heavy snow overnight on Sunday. This snow would continue to be heavy through around the noon hour on Monday, after which it would start to taper off.

Obviously, this system has the possibility to adversely affect travel Monday Morning, which might lead to a snow day being called by the Lake Orion School District. However, there are still several variables which could lead to a much lesser chance of a snow day. Perhaps the most obvious is that if the low pressure system moves a little further west than currently forecast, then the rain/snow line would also shift west and most of our precipitation could fall as rain. However, other variables such as if the low would even form, the strength of the low, and the timing of the precipitation are starting to be resolved, and I have therefore move the snow day alert level up to medium. Stay tuned to this blog for updates.

Potential snow days: Monday (12/1)

First snow day alert of the season

Based on the last two forecast model runs...I am putting our area under a snow day alert. This is the first snow day alert of the year.

Snow day alert level:
[Low] [Medium] [High] [Very High]

Reason for snow day alert: For two model runs in a row, a low pressure system has been shown developing in the Southeastern US and then moving NNE through Ohio. The models have shown heavy snow falling over SE Michigan some time between Sunday and Monday night.

Reason for level of snow day alert (low): This scenario has only been shown for two consecutive model runs. Therefore, this scenario may not come to pass at all. Also, it is still quite far away so the strength and timing of the system is still in question. As we all know, just as important as how much snow falls is when the snow falls. 6+" of snow does no good for a snow day if it all falls during the day and can therefore be plowed up at night. So for now, the alert level will be kept at low. Stay tuned to this blog for updates!

Potential snow days:
-Monday 12/1
-Tuesday 12/2

Monday/Tuesday Snowfall Forecast

Two weak systems have come together and induce surface low formation. This surface low will likely move just south of our area tomorrow, and this will provide the first widespread accumulating snow of the season for Southeast Michigan. There will likely be two different rounds of snow with this system. The first will occur as the surface low passes just to our south. This round of precipitation will start in the mid-morning timeframe tomorrow, and will continue until about rush hour tomorrow evening. This precipitation may start off as rain, but should quickly turn over to snow. Total accumulations for this first round of snow will likely be in the 1-3" range. Dry air will then work into the area late in the afternoon tomorrow, which will stop the snow for a while. However, a second round of snow is then likely to occur starting early Tuesday Morning as wraparound moisture and a favorable NNW wind off of Lake Huron will combine to send lake-enhance snow showers into our area. These snow showers will likely be heavy at times, and will probably give us at least another inch of accumulation, maybe even two. Due to this I am forecasting Lake Orion to receive 3-5" of snow with this system. This obviously won't be enough for a snow day, but it will be our first real accumulating snow of the season.

My forecasted accumulations between 8 a.m. Monday and 8 p.m. Tuesday

Monday Afternoon - Tuesday Forecast

Two weak systems will induce surface low formation over Lower Michigan on Monday. This will bring an abrupt end to the nice weather we will receive tomorrow, and will likely provide the first widespread accumulating snow of the season for Southeast Michigan.

Chance of Snow: 100%
It definitely seems like this system will form to the west of us, and then track over us bringing precipitation. Although the precipitation will likely start off as rain on Monday Afternoon, it should quickly change over to snow.

Chance of a Snow Day: 5%
The main snowfall will come at a fairly good time - approximately between 5 and 11 p.m. Monday Night - for receiving a snow day. However, what remains to be seen is just how much snow may fall. At this time, I am thinking that the Lake Orion area will only receive 2-4" of snow due to two factors. 1) The precipitation will likely start off as rain. 2) This low pressure system isn't particularly strong. However, if later model runs show that the low pressure system may be stronger, or that temperatures will be colder resulting in an all snow event, then snowfall amounts and snow day chances will have to be adjusted upwards.

The Bottom Line: This storm will probably bring the first widespread snowfall accumulations of the season to Southeast Michigan. However, the snowfall amounts will likely remain low enough to only cause a messy commute Tuesday Morning, not snow days.

Current snowfall forecast map:

Lake Orion vs. Rockford Forecast

72 degrees, but no sunshine during the game. I guarantee it!

LO-Fordson forecast.

Temperatures in the mid 30's at kickoff, dropping to the upper 20's by the end of the game. Skies will start off mostly clear, with clouds then increasing throughout the game. Virtually no chance of rain.

Why we won't get much snow today.

The bottom line is, this would be a great low pressure system track and would give us a lot of snow, but temperatures are simply too warm for snow to fall. Eventually later this afternoon and early this evening, temperatures will get cold enough for snow, but by then the low pressure system will be moving out of the area, leaving us with only a few hours of snow. Therefore, my new snowfall map has toned down the projected accumulations a lot.

Saturday...first moderate accumulation of the season?

On Friday, a strong cold front will move through the area. Ahead of this cold front, heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms will occur all day Friday, and into Friday Night. Behind this cold front, temperatures will quickly fall. These falling temperatures, combined with a low pressure system forming over NW Ohio or SE Ontario and then strengthening as it moves Northeast, will likely allow for some moderate snow accumulation to occur on Saturday Night. The forecast models are still in disagreement about the track of this low pressure system, which could lead to changes in its strength and location, which in turn would lead to different snow accumulation forecasts. However, one forecast model, the NAM has been relatively consistent, and that is therefore what I am mainly basing my forecasts off of. The NAM shows a surface low forming in Ontario, and moving to the Northeast while strengthening. Snow would wrap behind this low and impact us starting late Saturday afternoon and ending in the wee hours of Sunday Morning.

Chance of Snow: 70%

Reasoning: If the surface low takes a track too far to the east, we would likely see no snow at all. Otherwise, we will see a period of at least light to moderate snow, perhaps heavy at times.

Chance of a Snow Day: 0%

Reasoning: The accumulations won't be anything major, and the timing of the system (Saturday Night) is poor for a snow day to occur.

Predicted Accumulation: 1-4 inches

Reasoning: At this time, the low pressure system's track would support several hours of moderate snowfall. However, this prediction is likely to change somewhat. If the low tracks further to the east than forecast, or much further west than forecast, we probably will see less than 1" of snow. Conversely, if surface low formation occurs earlier than expected, and then the low strengthens more than expected before reaching us, we could see more snow than forecast. So, check back here tomorrow morning when I will issue my update on this system.

Here is my preliminary snowfall map for SE Michigan:

Upcoming Systems

For now, the storm system Friday Night is expected to pass a little too far to the east for us to get anything. I will keep watching this system though, and have updates if the track adjusts further west.

The system to watch, in my opinion, will move through from Sunday Night to Monday Afternoon. It will be a fast-moving system dropping out of Canada (known as a clipper) and could bring us a quick 1-2 inches of snow Sunday Night and Monday Morning.

I'll have more updates on these two systems when I come home from school today.

Regardless of if either of these two systems come to materialize, we should see more snow showers throughout this weekend and early next week, which should result in more dustings of accumulation like the one we had last Sunday Night.

Light Snow possible tonight

A band of precipitation is moving into Southern Lower Michigan. If the precipitation doesn't dissipate before it reaches Lake Orion, we will see a period of light snow tonight, transitioning to rain tomorrow morning. There will be almost no accumulation (even less than with the snow showers Sunday Night).

Bottom Line: Just another sign that winter is slowly getting closer.

However, there is a really interesting pattern that the forecast models are showing. This pattern is that of a secondary system moving in after a strong cold front comes through on Friday. If this holds, we may see an inch or two of snow Friday Night. I'll issue a more elaborate discussion tomorrow, if necessary.

First light accumulation?

For the time being today, there shouldn't be much precipitation other than the lake effect rain band that's about to move through the area. What precipitation falls today will be rain, perhaps with some sleet mixing in in the stronger showers. Then, in the late afternoon, an upper level low and accompanying cold pool will move to the north of the area. This will allow for numerous showers to form. These showers will start out as rain, then mix in with snow overnight.
Tomorrow, the showers will continue to be numerous as the cold pool (along with a shortwave) provides sufficient instability to allow for showers to form. The showers will end up transitioning to all snow by Sunday Afternoon as a strong cold front will pass through the area overnight tonight.

Also, these snow showers will have some lake enhancement. The winds will mean that the heaviest snow will fall along and south of the Detroit area. However, that won't make a lot of difference in this event, as almost everyone should see some snow, and roads will be too warm for any accumulation.

Chance of Snow: 80%
Temperatures will be cold enough for snow by tomorrow afternoon, and possibly tonight and tomorrow morning. Precipitation coverage will be high, so therefore there is a high chance of snow with this event.

Chance of a Snow Day: 0%
The roads will be too warm for any accumulation. Even if they weren't, there wouldn't be enough snow for there to be any chance of a snow day.

Predicted Accumulation:
-On warm surfaces (Roads, etc.): None. They will still be too warm for any accumulation.

-On cold surfaces (Grass, Car roofs, etc.): 0.5 inches. Snow showers will likely be heavy enough for some light accumulations on cold surfaces. If Lake Orion gets a heavier snow shower, we may even see up to a quick inch of accumulation. I will be measuring snow accumulation on my car roof for this event.

Bottom Line: A chance for almost everyone in Southeast Michigan to see their first snow.

Snow on Sunday

Two cold fronts will come through in the next few days, bringing an abrupt end to our summerlike stretch in early November. Indeed, after the second cold front comes through on Sunday, rain showers will likely mix with snow showers by sundown on Sunday, with all precipitation likely falling as snow Sunday Night.

Chance of Snow: 50%
Reasoning: Precipitation should fall Sunday and Sunday Night, and as of right now, temperatures support the precipitation changing over to snow by sundown on Sunday.

Chance of a Snow Day: 0%
Reasoning: A little snow may accumulate on grassy surfaces, but none will accumulate on the roads. The only effect this snow will have may be to make the roads a little slippery for the Monday Morning commute.

Predicted Accumulation: Less than 1"
Reasoning: There should be some minor accumulations with these snow showers, especially the heavier ones, but accumulation will be limited to grassy surfaces.

Bottom Line: I know not all of Lake Orion saw their first snow with the October 27-28 system, so this is a chance for more people to see their first snow. Other than that, this system is nothing special.

Strong cold front, then snow???

Enjoy the weather early this week, as temperatures will be in the lower 70's. However, by the end of the week, a strong cold front will move through. The early effects of this cold front could be horrible weather for the Lake Orion - Romeo football game Friday Night, as temperatures right now look to be in the upper 30's for that game. However, the cold temperatures will be the least of the weather problems. There is about a 50% chance of rain for Friday Night, and it is almost certainly going to be windy as a cold airmass moves in behind the cold front.

Then by Saturday Night, temperatures could be cold enough to support light snow showers. IF snow falls, accumulations would likely be very light, if the snow even sticks to the ground at all. The snow forecast has a high potential for change, as a few degree swing in temperatures will be the difference between getting rain or snow behind the cold front. Stay tuned to the blog for updates.

Snow chances are just about over

Isolated showers are expected to develop today, but temperatures will warm enough so that all precipitation will fall as rain in Lake Orion. All in all, this event was a disappointment, as nearly all precipitation fell as rain. However, some areas, including my house, did see their first snowflakes of the season with this event.

Short Term "Snow" Event Forecast

The rain/snow showers for tonight have tapered off, and there is little to no chance of further precipitation until tomorrow. Then, pop up showers will once again develop, although there will be less moisture in the atmosphere so coverage should be more limited than today. There is once again a chance of snow in the showers tomorrow. Once again, showers should dissipate as the sun sets tomorrow. Wednesday will once again be cold, but with no chance for precipitation. A major warm-up will ensue by the end of the week, ending any chances of snow for the time being.

First snow of season!

Let the record show that the first snowflakes of the 2008-2009 winter season occurred at 5:07 p.m. on Monday, October 27th, 2008.

I'll be back with a more detailed forecast later tonight.

First snow still expected early next week.

There's not much new to speak of on the storm system that will affect our area next week. The first snow of the season is still expected early next week.

This may be my last post until Sunday Night or Monday Morning, as I will be at a wedding in Pennsylvania until Sunday Night. It all depends on if I'll have computer access or not there. If I do, I'll try to post once between now and when I get back, if I don't have computer access, then this will obviously be the last post until I get back.

Early first snow of season?

For several days now, the first snow of the season has looked to come this Sunday Night. Forecast models have shown a strong cold front moving through the area Sunday Morning, followed by a large upper level low gravitating down from Canada and sitting over the area in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe. This upper low will bring down cold air, likely dropping our low temperatures Sunday Night to around 30 degrees. This obviously would be cold enough for snow, and the upper low will bring enough moisture into the area to likely kick up some snow showers in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Now, this won't be a "pretty" snowfall. Expect the snow to mix in with rain at times on Monday, first of all. Also, even when the precipitation is falling as all snow, it likely won't stick to the ground due to the ground temperatures still being above freezing. So, accumulations will be minimal.

Here is my first call forecast on the potential snow event in the Sunday Night - Monday Night timeframe.

Chance of seeing our first flakes of the season: 60%
Reasoning: For several days, forecast models have shown this upper low bringing with it precipitation. If temperatures are cold enough to support snow, it will snow. The only question is, will temperatures actually be cold enough? If the system is weaker, temperatures will probably stay above freezing, and therefore no snow would fall.

Chance of a snowday: 0%
Reasoning: Don't even ask about a snowday. It. Won't. Happen. Even if we do get snow (and I really think we will) ground temperatures won't allow for any snow accumulation. All this will do is make the roads slippery, which would slow down traffic but not make conditions dangerous enough to warrant a snowday.

Predicted Accumulation: Less than 1"
Reasoning: Although the snow showers may at some time be heavy, as I've mentioned a couple of times before, the ground simply won't support snow accumulations.

Bottom Line: This is just a prototypical first snow event of the season, with minimal accumulations. Still, it's nice to see that the season may be starting a little earlier than usual this year.

First Post

Random facts about Lake Orion snow days:

Number of snow days in the Lake Orion 2007-08 Snow Season: 7 (one of the highest totals in Southeast Michigan!)

Percentage of potential snow days I predicted correctly last year: 70% (14/20)

Pluses for snow days in Lake Orion: (1) Our local road comission doesn't work nights and weekends, sometimes allowing us to have snow days well after snowstorms hit. (2) There are still many dirt roads in Lake Orion which busses have to travel on, allowing for more snow days on days when these roads ice over.

Minuses for snow days in Lake Orion: (1) Snow days cost our school money, and since almost all schools in Michigan are short on cash, our school will try to keep school running as much as possible.