Based on forecast models coming together to give the Lake Orion area some very heavy snow Sunday Night through Monday Morning, I have upgrade the snow day alert level for Monday, December 1st to Medium.
Snow day alert level: [Low] [Medium] [High] [Very High]
Why I raised the alert level: The forecast models have all been showing some kind of storm system cutting through the Great Lakes and giving the Lake Orion area some amount of accumulating snow from Sunday Night through Monday Afternoon. Now, two of the biggest models, the GFS and the NAM, have come closer together with the latest model run. The good news is, both of these models now suggest that some very heavy snow is possible between Sunday Evening and Monday Morning as a low pressure system forms over Central Kentucky and moves north-northeastward through Ohio. Based on the latest runs of these models, one living in the Lake Orion area can expect precipitation to start off as a wintry mix Sunday Evening, transitioning to very heavy snow overnight on Sunday. This snow would continue to be heavy through around the noon hour on Monday, after which it would start to taper off.
Obviously, this system has the possibility to adversely affect travel Monday Morning, which might lead to a snow day being called by the Lake Orion School District. However, there are still several variables which could lead to a much lesser chance of a snow day. Perhaps the most obvious is that if the low pressure system moves a little further west than currently forecast, then the rain/snow line would also shift west and most of our precipitation could fall as rain. However, other variables such as if the low would even form, the strength of the low, and the timing of the precipitation are starting to be resolved, and I have therefore move the snow day alert level up to medium. Stay tuned to this blog for updates.
Potential snow days: Monday (12/1)
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