Storm Total

At my house, it was 9.9". Lake Orion received some of the highest accumulations from this event, as we were in the path of one of the heaviest bands of snow.

The bottom line is that this was a quick, intense snowfall event, with general accumulations ranging from 6-10", and some areas seeing as many as 13" of snow.

Snow Day?

In my opinion, we'll probably have school called in the next 15-30 minutes. Warren Consolidated Schools just closed, and they close maybe once a year, so I think we're good.

EDIT: And sure enough, we did get a snow day.

EDIT #2: We're probably heading for the upper end of my forecasted 6-10", and maybe more.

Final Snow Day Prediction

Well, here we go. My second possibility of why we might not get a snow day tomorrow may just happen. Here's that possibility (in the same form as I posted it yesterday).
Possibility Two: The storm slows down more than expected. The snow starts at around 4:00 a.m. Friday, and only 1-2" of snow is on the ground by 6:00 a.m. In this case we could have school, because our school got burned the last time they called a snow day on the expectation that significant snow accumulations would occur during the day. (That occurred on February 1st, 2008, when we were supposed to get 4-7" during the day and ended up only getting 3" of snow total.) If this possibility becomes reality, get ready for a long, long, long commute home Friday, as the bust potential on this storm is extremely low. However, I just don't think I can see our school not realizing that it would be extremely dangerous to send all students to school in near-whiteout conditions Friday Morning.





Well, guess what? The snow is now expected to start around, you guessed it, 4:00 a.m. tomorrow morning. It's always something that prevents the perfect snow day possibilities. However, I still think we'll have a snow day. This is because the heaviest snow will occur right during morning rush hour tomorrow. Whiteout conditions are possible, and roads will be horrible, as the road crews will not be able to keep up with the amount of snow that will fall.

Then, tomorrow afternoon, if we have school, we could easily end up snowed in, as drifts of well over a foot are possible because of 30+ mph wind gusts tomorrow. And my guess is that school officials don't want students driving to school in whiteout conditions, and that they also don't want students to be potentially snowed in after school tomorrow (although my guess is that if we had school, the school would do it's absolute best to make sure the the parking lots are as clear as possible after school). Therefore, my prediction is:

YES, we will have a snow day tomorrow.

Now, for the actual snow discussion:

A low pressure system will track from Eastern Colorado to Central Ohio. To the north and east of this low pressure system, a heavy precipitation shield will develop. Snow will start at around 4:00 a.m. Friday Morning, and quickly become heavy. Snowfall rates in excess of 1" per hour are likely much of Friday Morning. In fact, in the stronger bands, thundersnow and snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour are possible. The thing that will limit snowfall accumulations is that this is a short-duration winter storm. Much of the snow will fall between 4:00 a.m. and noon tomorrow, with the snow tapering off to light snow showers tomorrow afternoon. Therefore, accumulations have been toned down from 8-12" to 6-10". However, I would expect our final total to be closer to 10" than 6".

Final Snowfall Map:

New Snowfall Map

Main discussion will be up by 5:00 p.m. tonight, but until then, here's my new snowfall map. I made a move to lower snowfall totals across the board by 2", because most forecast models have decreased the amount of precipitation that is expected to fall from this storm. Still though, Lake Orion should receive 6-10" of snow from this storm, with the potential for 12" or more of snowfall if we are in the path of one of the heavy bands of snow. Even the lowest snowfall amount that I have forecasted (and my forecast totals are lower than most other people's) is 6", which should still be enough to get a snow day tomorrow. Therefore, I will keep our snow day chances at very high.

Potentially Epic Snowstorm To Affect SE Michigan Tomorrow Night and Friday

Wow. That's all I have to say about the potential this system has. This should easily be our biggest snowstorm since the New Year's Day 2008 Blizzard (12" of snow at my house), and it has the potential to be even bigger than that. A snow day is extremely likely on Friday, and I have no qualms about raising the alert level to very high.

Here's what's going to go down:

Right now, the low pressure system that will affect us is over Los Angeles. It is so strong that snow is being reported in the hills of Southern California. From Los Angeles, this system will race to the ENE, eventually tracking from Northern Illinois to Northern Indiana to Northern Ohio on Friday. This forecasted track is further south than what was forecast this morning, so a lot more snow and a lot less ice is now expected. In fact, the ice storm threat for Lake Orion is nearly nil. The snowstorm threat however, is stronger than ever.

As the storm tracks ENE, it will run into a moist and unstable airmass over the Great Lakes. This will result in a favorable environment for heavy snow to occur in SE Michigan after about Midnight tomorrow. The snow will fall at a rate in excess of 1" per hour for much of Friday Morning, before tapering off Friday Afternoon and ending completely Friday Evening. When all is said and done, Lake Orion (and much of SE Michigan) will likely have in excess of 8" of snow.

Now, while only 2-5" of snow will be on the ground by 6:00 a.m. Friday Morning, there will be near-whiteout to whiteout conditions making driving nearly impossible. Also, there will be wind gusts of up to 30 mph, meaning that snow will be blowing across the main roads that are plowed, and drifting on the back roads that aren't plowed. Therefore, I feel confident that a snow day will occur on Friday.

There are only two possibilities in which I can't see a snow day occurring, and in my opinion the chances of each possibility are low.

Possibility One: The storm track moves further south, in fact, too far south. It would take a huge shift to the south, but it theoretically could happen. In this case, we would only get 4-8" of snow, with only 1-3" of snow falling before 6:00 a.m. Friday because the main precipitation shield would be too far to our south. However, I can't see such a huge shift occurring.

Possibility Two: The storm slows down more than expected. The snow starts at around 4:00 a.m. Friday, and only 1-2" of snow is on the ground by 6:00 a.m. In this case we could have school, because our school got burned the last time they called a snow day on the expectation that significant snow accumulations would occur during the day. (That occurred on February 1st, 2008, when we were supposed to get 4-7" during the day and ended up only getting 3" of snow total.) If this possibility becomes reality, get ready for a long, long, long commute home Friday, as the bust potential on this storm is extremely low. However, I just don't think I can see our school not realizing that it would be extremely dangerous to send all students to school in near-whiteout conditions Friday Morning.

So, all in all, we should have an extended Christmas Break due to a likely snow day on Friday.

Here's my snow map for SE Michigan. Note that there will likely be some 12+" totals where convective banding of snow occurs. Where convective banding of snow occurs, there will be thundersnow and the potential of snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour.

Snow Day Likely on Friday

I'll post a more complete discussion this afternoon, but for now, here's my snow and ice maps for the Thursday Night - Friday winter storm.

The labeling is a little unclear, but I have Lake Orion in the 6-10" snow accumulation zone and the 0.01-0.1" ice accumulation zone.

Complete discussion will be up at around 6:00.

Tonight's Forecast

A weak low pressure system will track from Tennessee up to Cleveland by tomorrow morning. To the north of this system, snow is occurring. The snow is currently edging into SE Michigan, and should reach the Lake Orion area in around 3 hours. After the snow starts, it will quickly become heavy, with snowfall rates of up to an inch an hour occurring. Still though, I don't expect a snow day tomorrow. The snow will only fall for 6 hours or so, with total accumulations in the 3-6" range. 6" is usually a borderline snow day, but I honestly don't expect a snow day even if we get that much snow. This is because schools usually all call snow days at once. However, the schools that only get 3" of snow obviously won't call school, and therefore the few schools that actually get 6" of snow won't call school, for fear of backlash from being one of the only schools to close. I can think of a similar event from last year that resulted in us having around 6" of snow, but still not having a snow day. Here's the link:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/display_event.php?file=snow200802131144

I expect a similar event tonight, with a lot of people getting 3-4" of snow, a few people getting 5-6" of snow, and almost no one calling school. Therefore, my prediction is:

NO snow day tomorrow.

Here's my snow map for tomorrow:

Note that although Lake Orion is in the 3-6" zone, we are on the northern edge of that zone; therefore, I tend to think we will be closer to 3" of accumulation than 6" of accumulation.

Preview

I'll have a discussion of tonight's system up at around 5:00 p.m.

In the meantime, let me state that we have a great possibility of a snow day on Friday. It's looking very likely that we will either have a major snow storm or a major ice storm starting late Thursday Night and ending late Friday Afternoon. I'll raise the snow day alert to medium for Friday, and in all likelihood, it will eventually be raised to high or very high.

Tomorrow Night's Forecast

A weak low pressure system will move through the area tomorrow night. The result of this will be an area of moderate snowfall moving in through our area. This is my current snowfall forecast for SE Michigan.

I will discuss this storm in more detail tomorrow evening. Right now, it is looking more like a storm that will just disrupt the Wednesday Morning commute, as opposed to a storm that will cause a snow day.

3 Systems Moving Through Next Week

Well, we are moving into the most active part of winter so far, with three distinct systems moving through in the next week. I'll talk about all three of these systems and the snow day chances they will bring us right now.

System One: Tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will move through the area. Ahead of this front, there will be a lot of rain, with the possibility of even hearing a few rumbles of thunder! Temperatures will be over 40 degrees ahead of this front, but will abruptly drop into the mid 20's shortly after the front moves through. Precipitation will therefore quickly turn into snow, but only a dusting of snow should fall, as the cold front is bringing in very dry air behind it, which will work to move the precipitation out of our area. The big story from this system is that all of the rain that falls ahead of the cold front will quickly turn to ice, potentially making roads very hazardous to drive on during the day tomorrow. However, don't expect a snow day from this system, unless the 40 mph wind gusts behind it cause a power outage at the school. All that will happen before school tomorrow is a lot of rain, so there's obviously no reason to call a snow day. Just be prepared for some bad driving conditions on the way home from school tomorrow.

System Two: Snow will fall Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning as an area of precipitation moves through SE Michigan. There should be several hours of moderate snowfall, likely leading to accumulations of 3-7" across Oakland County. One thing to watch out for from this system is that an area of ice accumulations is possible over SE Michigan if the track of the system is further north than currently forecast. I still wouldn't expect a snow day out of this one, but there is the chance. We have a pretty good timeframe, with the heaviest snow expected to fall early Wednesday Morning, and there is the chance to see 6+" out of this system. However, I believe right now that this is looking like a 4" "nuisiance snow", one that makes roadways bad, but not bad enough to lead to a snowday.

Here is my map for the Tuesday Night - Wednesday Morning System:

System Three: The real system to watch for a snowday is, in my opinion, the one that will cause heavy precipitation to fall all day and into the night on Thursday. It's a low pressure system that will track out of the Rockies and into Lower Michigan. The problem with this system is that it may bring in enough warm air so that we once again may see only rain from it. However, the potential also exists for an ice or snow storm Thursday and Thursday Night. Basically, it's unclear what's going to happen. But still, know that there is the potential for a significant winter weather event Thursday into Thursday Night.

The Bottom Line: Three different systems moving through in the next five days means that there will be a chance of a snow day almost every day next week. Days with the best chance for a snowday will be determined as more is known about System Two and System Three, but for now, suffice it to say that this is the most promising week of winter so far.

Surprise Snow Day? Maybe...

Well, good news. Chances of a snow day, while still low, are better than I thought they would be. More snow than expected will move into the region overnight, with up to 3" of accumulation possible by tomorrow morning. Also, roads will freeze over tonight. Combine this with the snow, and back roads will be very bad tomorrow morning. It would seem to be a good setup for a snow day, but keep in mind that these scenarios in which roads freeze over, while promising, never really seem to produce actual snow days. So, while my official prediction is that there won't be a snow day tomorrow, the potential is definitely still there, and better than it was this morning.

It's snowing here already, which means the changeover has occurred over 90 minutes earlier than expected. Great for accumulations, great for snow day chances, but my gut instinct still tells me we'll be in school tomorrow.

For my official snow map on this winter storm, which started last night and will end tomorrow morning, see a few posts below.

Snow Day

Well, we're not getting any ice tonight so we obviously won't get a snow day tomorrow. Just thought I'd put that out there, as there was some hype about a potential snow day at school today.

Complex Storm System

As of right now, I do not expect Lake Orion to get a snow day tomorrow. Icing potential is less than what it was this morning, which will greatly reduce our chances for a snow day tomorrow and Wednesday. Since there likely won't be significant icing, we will be left with a mixed bag of precipitation tonight through Wednesday Morning. Precipitation will likely start as snow tonight, then mix in with rain tomorrow (drastically limiting accumulations) before changing back over to snow tomorrow night. Simply put, without any freezing rain, we will not have enough snow for a snow day.

Here is my snow map for Southeast Michigan:

The next storm will be a nightmare to forecast

A low pressure system is going to move from the Texas Panhandle to Lake Erie by Wednesday Morning. This system will be strong enough to pull up a large amount of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is that the warm air will give this system a lot of moisture to work with, but that bad thing is that the warm air will likely warm temperatures enough so that at least some of our precipitation will likely fall as rain. Expect precipitation from this system to start as snow tomorrow afternoon and continue overnight. Tuesday Morning's commute will be horrible, as there will likely be around 3" of snow on the ground already and snow will likely still be falling. The main question with this storm is what will happen during the day on Tuesday. Depending on where the storm tracks, we could get a lot of snow, a lot of ice, or a lot of rain. Right now, it is looking like we will get a lot of rain. Then as the storm moves away, we will likely get a few more inches of wraparound snow Wednesday Morning.

As of right now, I will put a LOW snow day alert out for Wednesday and Thursday, due to the fact that we may yet get ice or snow as opposed to rain on Tuesday, and also due to the fact that even if we do get rain, it will all freeze over on Wednesday. This forecast is highly subject to change, as this system has been a nightmare to forecast so far and I can't see that changing. Although I would usually put out a snow map by now, there is enough uncertainty that I will hold off on doing so until this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Light Snow Today

There's nothing much to say about the snow that will fall today. A weak area of low pressure will move to our north, triggering light snow across all of SE Michigan. There's no need for a snowfall map with this event, as all areas in SE Michigan should see 1-3" of snow. Here in Lake Orion, we'll probably be leaning towards 3" as opposed to 1". The only story with this event is that strong southwest winds during the day will lead to the blowing and drifting of snow. After the snow ends this afternoon, there will be a brief lull in winds, before they shift to the northwest tonight as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes down from the northwest. These strong northwest winds will likely blow the snow around some more. But all in all, this is the type of event we see many times every season, so it should be no big deal. What is worth making a big deal about is a strong system moving in mid-week. Depending on the track of this system, we could get a snowstorm, an ice storm, or yes, unfortunately, even a rain storm. I'll post about that system starting tomorrow.

Total Snowfall at my House:
9:00 a.m. - 0.3"
10:00 a.m. - 0.8"
11:00 a.m. - 1.1"
12:30 p.m. - 1.4"
2:30 p.m. - 1.8"
5:30 p.m. - 2.6"
7:30 p.m. - 2.9"

A Quick Burst Of Snow Tonight

A cold front will move through late this afternoon, and there will be precipitation along this cold front. Since temperatures will likely get into the upper 30's today, the precipitation will likely start off as rain or a wintry mix, but it will change to snow behind the cold front. We won't get a lot of snow with this event, but the snowfall rates will likely be impressive. There will likely be a brief period of near-whiteout to whiteout conditions tonight, as the snowfall will be very heavy at times and there will be a southwest wind during this event helping to blow the snow around a little bit. Lake Orion will likely pick up a quick 1-3" of snow with this event this evening. Not enough for a snow day, obviously, but if rain is the precipitation type at the start of this event, expect back roads to be icy tomorrow morning if they aren't icy already (mine are already icy).

Snowfall Map:

Not Good

Well, that really couldn't have been a bigger bust for the first "major" winter storm if I tried. I'll be frank about this one. I (along with other meteorologists in Detroit) made one big mistake. I overestimated the amount of snow that would fall overnight. Here in Lake Orion, we'll still end up with about 6", but about 2" of that will fall during the day today, when it doesn't have any effect on school being in session. And another mistake was that I underestimated the strength of the dry slot. We only got 0.4" of snow overnight, for a total of 3.9", which obviously isn't enough for a snow day. Basically, the dry air prevented any substantial snow amounts from falling last night, which killed our chances for a snow day. This isn't even one of those days where I can say that the school district should have called school. If you're looking for someone to blame for this bust of a snow day, blame me.