Pretty sure we are not getting that blizzard next week. Models once again tracked it back towards the east, and it would take an amazing shift to the west for us to get anything from it.
Instead, we can likely look forward to an extended warmup starting around the 7th of February, which could lead to the loss of all of our snowpack.
After that, we have about a monthlong timeframe where we could see some significant snowstorms, but after about March 15th, it's extremely unlikely that we'll get any significant snowstorms.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Bad news
The blizzard watch is off for now...we'll see if it ever comes back, but all but one of last night's model runs showed the low pressure system for next week going well to our east.
Now, this doesn't mean it's a slam dunk that this storm is going to miss us, but with such good model agreement, it's not looking good.
However, there is still hope, as forecast models tend to screw up with the upper-level features at about 5 days out from the storm (as we are right now), only to go back to their original track as we get closer to the storm. And guess what? Last night's models showed a ridge over Texas, which is preventing the trough from digging deep enough (I'd explain this in layman's terms but I have to get to school, sorry!), resulting in a weaker, much further east storm. So, we are definitely not out of play for this storm yet, but as of right now, it's definitely not looking as good as it did last night.
Now, this doesn't mean it's a slam dunk that this storm is going to miss us, but with such good model agreement, it's not looking good.
However, there is still hope, as forecast models tend to screw up with the upper-level features at about 5 days out from the storm (as we are right now), only to go back to their original track as we get closer to the storm. And guess what? Last night's models showed a ridge over Texas, which is preventing the trough from digging deep enough (I'd explain this in layman's terms but I have to get to school, sorry!), resulting in a weaker, much further east storm. So, we are definitely not out of play for this storm yet, but as of right now, it's definitely not looking as good as it did last night.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Still looking decent for a potential blizzard early next week!
Sorry that this is a really late entry, but I figured the extended forecast model discussion would get people to more clearly understand why I believe the track of this storm will end up being to the west of what is currently forecasted.
Alright, so, with no further ado, here's what I believe is going to go down with this storm next week.
Note that the forecasted position of this storm has shifted hundreds of miles west from the 12Z to 18Z run; in fact, so far west that Michigan is forecasted to receive significant snow if you took this run of the GFS as the absolute truth (although you never want to take one forecast model as the absolute truth). Now, the 18Z run of the GFS is admittedly less reliable than the 12Z run of the GFS, but it is usually somewhat of a "trendsetter"; AKA other runs of the GFS usually follow the trends that the 18Z GFS starts - in this case, a further west track of the surface low, and significant snowfall for Michigan.
Alright, so, with no further ado, here's what I believe is going to go down with this storm next week.
A surface low will form somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, and then move to the NNE. Forecast models have come to a fairly good agreement that this storm will track through Central PA. This track would result in SE Michigan getting some, but not a lot, of snow from this storm.
However, I'm actually satisfied that we are on the western fringe of the snow from this storm considering the weather pattern we're in. In this weather pattern, forecast models often adjust the tracks of storms to the west as time goes on. Take, for example, the comparison images I've used of the 12Z (7 a.m.) and 18Z (1 p.m.) runs of the GFS forecast model.
The above image is the forecasted position of the low pressure system at 120 hours from this morning's 12Z (7 a.m.) run of the GFS. AKA this is where the low is supposed to be at 7 a.m. Tuesday. Note that it is too far east to give Michigan any significant snow. The GFS at that time was the furthest east of any forecast model with this storm track.
Now, here's the forecasted position of the low pressure system at 114 hours from this afternoon's 18Z (1 p.m.) run of the GFS. I've used this image as a comparison image from the last image because it's shows the low's forecasted position at the same time (7 a.m. Tuesday).
Note that the forecasted position of this storm has shifted hundreds of miles west from the 12Z to 18Z run; in fact, so far west that Michigan is forecasted to receive significant snow if you took this run of the GFS as the absolute truth (although you never want to take one forecast model as the absolute truth). Now, the 18Z run of the GFS is admittedly less reliable than the 12Z run of the GFS, but it is usually somewhat of a "trendsetter"; AKA other runs of the GFS usually follow the trends that the 18Z GFS starts - in this case, a further west track of the surface low, and significant snowfall for Michigan.So, the bottom line for now is that I expect the models to adjust the track west as time goes on, and I expect us to be adversely affected by this storm.
Why? Because this storm is strong and large enough that even if the current forecasted track doesn't move one inch to the west, we would probably still get a few inches of snow from this storm. And with this storm, a few inches of snow will be enough to cause blizzard conditions, as this storm will likely be a "meteorological bomb", or a storm that drops it's lowest pressure by 24 millibars in under 24 hours. Anytime a storm drops it's pressure by that much, extremely high winds result.
For the area that receives the brunt of this storm, I expect 12-18" of snow and also expect everything to basically shut down in that area for several days, as 12-18" of snow combined with 40+ mph wind gusts (which I'm expecting from this storm) is enough to cause whiteout conditions and snow drifts high enough to shut down almost any road.
This storm will be a fun one to watch, and if everything plays out correctly, this could be much worse than even the New Year's Day Blizzard that occurred last year.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Next storm potential?
Before this morning, I had been trumpeting the fact that due to the weather pattern we're in we may see no major winter storms until mid-February. However, that may not be the case. I'll detail more about a potential winter storm next week later this afternoon.
Basically, the next storm has the potential to be the biggest winter storm of the season for us, if it takes the correct track. This is for a few different reasons (which I'll explain when I have more time), but the biggest reason is that since it will be coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, it will have a lot of moisture to work with. Some people will be measuring snow in feet, not inches, from this storm. Another big reason is that the associated low pressure with this system will likely be very strong, and strong pressure gradients cause high winds, which could mean blizzard conditions for some people that will be affected by this storm.
But, whom will be affected? It all depends on two high pressure systems that will form next week. One will form in the Upper Midwest, and one will form over the Atlantic Ocean. If the high pressure system in the Upper Midwest is stronger than the one in the Atlantic Ocean, then next week's storm will take a further east track, with the east coast getting the significant snowfall. If both high pressure systems are equally strong, then expect the significant snowfall to occure a little bit to our east, with Eastern Ohio getting another major snowstorm. However, if the Atlantic Ocean high pressure system is stronger, then look out, because the brunt of the storm will likely be hitting us.
It's too early right now to say which track will occur, but the potential is there for us to be ditching the ruler and getting out the yardstick to measure snow next week.
Basically, the next storm has the potential to be the biggest winter storm of the season for us, if it takes the correct track. This is for a few different reasons (which I'll explain when I have more time), but the biggest reason is that since it will be coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico, it will have a lot of moisture to work with. Some people will be measuring snow in feet, not inches, from this storm. Another big reason is that the associated low pressure with this system will likely be very strong, and strong pressure gradients cause high winds, which could mean blizzard conditions for some people that will be affected by this storm.
But, whom will be affected? It all depends on two high pressure systems that will form next week. One will form in the Upper Midwest, and one will form over the Atlantic Ocean. If the high pressure system in the Upper Midwest is stronger than the one in the Atlantic Ocean, then next week's storm will take a further east track, with the east coast getting the significant snowfall. If both high pressure systems are equally strong, then expect the significant snowfall to occure a little bit to our east, with Eastern Ohio getting another major snowstorm. However, if the Atlantic Ocean high pressure system is stronger, then look out, because the brunt of the storm will likely be hitting us.
It's too early right now to say which track will occur, but the potential is there for us to be ditching the ruler and getting out the yardstick to measure snow next week.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Discussion
The amount of snow we get from this storm system tonight will ultimately depend on where the storm tracks. The further west it tracks, the more snow we will get. So, the question is, how can we determine where the storm is most likely to track, and how much snow will we get from it as a result?
Current forecasted tracks have the low pressure system tracking from Eastern Kentucky to Central Pennsylvania before it moves in a more easterly direction away from us. I tend to believe that the forecast models still haven't moved this track quite far enough to the west, and will base my snowfall maps off of a track approximately from Eastern Kentucky to Pittsburgh before it takes a more easterly turn. If my forecasted track is correct, it will result in a sharp snowfall gradient across SE Michigan, ranging from 5-9" and almost certain snowdays over far southeastern Michigan, to no snow in the Saginaw area.
However, there are two more possibilities. One is that the current forecasted track being used by the NWS and most news stations is correct. If this is correct, we can expect 2-5" of snow, with far southeastern Michigan getting 4-7" of snow. Another, more intriguing, possiblity is that the storm waits for a longer period of time to make its more easterly turn, resulting in higher snowfall amounts for our area.
However, no matter how long the storm takes to move out of our area, it really won't have that much of an effect on our snow totals by tomorrow morning. Even if the storm takes the further west track, and we end up with more accumulation than expected, we will still only have 2-4" on the ground by tomorrow morning. And honestly, I don't think 2-4" of snow with an unknown additional will cut it for a snow day, even with snow continuing to fall during the morning commute tomorrow.
So, therefore, my prediction is that we will not have a snow day tomorrow. Be prepared to leave early for school if you plan on driving there though, as there will likely be backups on the way to school tomorrow morning, even though we will not be driving at the heart of the morning commute (because it's late start).
Snowfall Map (as you can see, extremely high bust potential from this storm):
Current forecasted tracks have the low pressure system tracking from Eastern Kentucky to Central Pennsylvania before it moves in a more easterly direction away from us. I tend to believe that the forecast models still haven't moved this track quite far enough to the west, and will base my snowfall maps off of a track approximately from Eastern Kentucky to Pittsburgh before it takes a more easterly turn. If my forecasted track is correct, it will result in a sharp snowfall gradient across SE Michigan, ranging from 5-9" and almost certain snowdays over far southeastern Michigan, to no snow in the Saginaw area.
However, there are two more possibilities. One is that the current forecasted track being used by the NWS and most news stations is correct. If this is correct, we can expect 2-5" of snow, with far southeastern Michigan getting 4-7" of snow. Another, more intriguing, possiblity is that the storm waits for a longer period of time to make its more easterly turn, resulting in higher snowfall amounts for our area.
However, no matter how long the storm takes to move out of our area, it really won't have that much of an effect on our snow totals by tomorrow morning. Even if the storm takes the further west track, and we end up with more accumulation than expected, we will still only have 2-4" on the ground by tomorrow morning. And honestly, I don't think 2-4" of snow with an unknown additional will cut it for a snow day, even with snow continuing to fall during the morning commute tomorrow.
So, therefore, my prediction is that we will not have a snow day tomorrow. Be prepared to leave early for school if you plan on driving there though, as there will likely be backups on the way to school tomorrow morning, even though we will not be driving at the heart of the morning commute (because it's late start).
Snowfall Map (as you can see, extremely high bust potential from this storm):
Breaking News
The major winter storm affecting much of the eastern half of the U.S. is now expected to track further west than previously thought.
As such, 4-8" of snow accumulation is expected between this evening and midday tomorrow for our area.
A snow day is now entirely possible for tomorrow.
Come back at around 5:00 for a full discussion.
Monday, January 26, 2009
If you want to be jealous...
Go to
http://www.weather.gov/
and click on the various cities that will be affected by the massive winter storm going on down to the south.
Just goes to show you what we could have had in the next few days if the high pressure system over us hadn't suppressed this storm down to the south and east of us (yes this is the potential snowstorm I mentioned in my last entry...it just went further south than expected).
We will still likely pick up around 1-2" of snow from this storm, with the potential for a bit more if the storm track moves further to the north.
Just figured I'd get around to posting something on this because it is a significant winter storm, even if we won't feel its main effects.
http://www.weather.gov/
and click on the various cities that will be affected by the massive winter storm going on down to the south.
Just goes to show you what we could have had in the next few days if the high pressure system over us hadn't suppressed this storm down to the south and east of us (yes this is the potential snowstorm I mentioned in my last entry...it just went further south than expected).
We will still likely pick up around 1-2" of snow from this storm, with the potential for a bit more if the storm track moves further to the north.
Just figured I'd get around to posting something on this because it is a significant winter storm, even if we won't feel its main effects.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Next 7 days
Firstly, another Arctic air mass will settle into the region this weekend. Lows will fall below zero on Saturday night with wind chills falling to between 15 and 20 degrees below zero, which could be enough for a cold day if it was a school night. On Sunday night, lows will be around zero with wind chills falling to between 5 and 10 degrees below zero, which is not enough for a cold day.
Secondly, a storm system looks increasingly likely to affect the region sometime in the middle of next week. Depending on the track, we could get a lot of rain or a lot of snow.
Secondly, a storm system looks increasingly likely to affect the region sometime in the middle of next week. Depending on the track, we could get a lot of rain or a lot of snow.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Storm Total
Total accumulation from this storm at my house was 6.5". Once again, Lake Orion received some of the highest accumulations from this event.
Through tomorrow, expect additional snow accumulations of around 1-2", as lake effect snow showers move into the area.
Tonight and tomorrow night will both be very cold, with lows around 5 and wind chills between -5 and -10 both nights. Not enough for a cold day on Tuesday, but very cold nonetheless.
Finally, there is the possibility for a snow storm to affect the area late next week.
Through tomorrow, expect additional snow accumulations of around 1-2", as lake effect snow showers move into the area.
Tonight and tomorrow night will both be very cold, with lows around 5 and wind chills between -5 and -10 both nights. Not enough for a cold day on Tuesday, but very cold nonetheless.
Finally, there is the possibility for a snow storm to affect the area late next week.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Snowfall Forecast For Tomorrow
Obviously won't cause any snow days for Lake Orion b/c of the timing but if it came on a weekday it would be a close call as to if it could cause a snow day on the next day.
Here's my map:
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Tomorrow, take three, or take one?
Third straight day of disappointment? Or will we finally receive a cold day? Well, first I would like to say that I have learned two things this week.
1) Cold days are pretty random. We got one last year when temperatures were warmer than they were this year.
2) I'm not going to guarantee another prediction.
Now, on to the forecast. Lows are forecasted once again to be around -10, and wind chills once again are forecast to be around -20 to -25. However, that didn't do us a lot of good last night, as temperatures only dropped down to -6, and only at 7:00 a.m., when it was already too late to do us any good.
I'm not going to bother predicting this one, because, honestly, I don't know what is going to happen here. People have asked me one similar question all day though, and that is: "Do we have a better chance of a cold day tomorrow because now we'll only get 1 day off of school instead of the 2 we likely would have gotten if they called school today?"
I would lean towards "no" here. I believe that the reason we didn't get a cold day yesterday was because temperatures were honestly not nearly as cold as forecast. It was -1 at 5:00 a.m. with a wind chill of around -12. That honestly will almost never cut it for a cold day.
Would our forecasted low temperatures and wind chills tonight cut it? I do believe so. I say that any wind chill below -20 is getting to the point of being quite dangerous for people standing out at the bus stop, and I also believe that at that point we will start having multitudes of bus problems (which further exacerbates the problem of kids being outside for a while in dangerously cold temperatures). So do I think the school should call a cold day if our forecasted low temperatures and wind chills actually reach the forecasted mark tonight? Yes. Do I think the school will call a cold day if this happens? Not a clue.
NOTE: I'm still predicting snow days. Just not cold days anymore.
9 p.m. : 2 degrees with a wind chill of -15. As someone in the comments section said, we are getting somewhere.
1) Cold days are pretty random. We got one last year when temperatures were warmer than they were this year.
2) I'm not going to guarantee another prediction.
Now, on to the forecast. Lows are forecasted once again to be around -10, and wind chills once again are forecast to be around -20 to -25. However, that didn't do us a lot of good last night, as temperatures only dropped down to -6, and only at 7:00 a.m., when it was already too late to do us any good.
I'm not going to bother predicting this one, because, honestly, I don't know what is going to happen here. People have asked me one similar question all day though, and that is: "Do we have a better chance of a cold day tomorrow because now we'll only get 1 day off of school instead of the 2 we likely would have gotten if they called school today?"
I would lean towards "no" here. I believe that the reason we didn't get a cold day yesterday was because temperatures were honestly not nearly as cold as forecast. It was -1 at 5:00 a.m. with a wind chill of around -12. That honestly will almost never cut it for a cold day.
Would our forecasted low temperatures and wind chills tonight cut it? I do believe so. I say that any wind chill below -20 is getting to the point of being quite dangerous for people standing out at the bus stop, and I also believe that at that point we will start having multitudes of bus problems (which further exacerbates the problem of kids being outside for a while in dangerously cold temperatures). So do I think the school should call a cold day if our forecasted low temperatures and wind chills actually reach the forecasted mark tonight? Yes. Do I think the school will call a cold day if this happens? Not a clue.
NOTE: I'm still predicting snow days. Just not cold days anymore.
9 p.m. : 2 degrees with a wind chill of -15. As someone in the comments section said, we are getting somewhere.
The Flame Thread
Because I'm sure everyone is going to want to, please call me out in the comments section below this thread. I'll accept everything that doesn't have profanity.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tomorrow
Quickly, because honestly, there's really nothing much to talk about when it comes to predicting cold days.
We will have a cold day. Guaran'sheed.
I am extremely confident.
-11 degree lows and -20 degree wind chills get results.
For even more concrete evidence on why schools could close tomorrow, check the "Comments" section below this entry.
We will have a cold day. Guaran'sheed.
I am extremely confident.
-11 degree lows and -20 degree wind chills get results.
For even more concrete evidence on why schools could close tomorrow, check the "Comments" section below this entry.
Buses don't start
In -8 weather (which is the current temperature). Well, maybe they do. I guess we'll see in about 45 minutes. But I distinctly remember it being warmer than -8 last year when the buses didn't start.
In other news, I was right about the NWS forecasting low temperatures too warm (they had a range of -5 to +1 degrees for lows, it ended up at -8 degrees). But, of course, it won't matter if my prediction is wrong.
In other news, I was right about the NWS forecasting low temperatures too warm (they had a range of -5 to +1 degrees for lows, it ended up at -8 degrees). But, of course, it won't matter if my prediction is wrong.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Hmm...
Well, there is a distinct possibility that temperatures tonight might not get down as low as previously thought. The National Weather Service is now saying low temperatures tonight will only get down to around, say, -2, as opposed to numbers like -10 that were being thrown around earlier (admittedly by myself as well). Temperatures that low will have to wait until Thursday Night.
However, I still expect a "cold day" tomorrow. For one thing, I feel that the National Weather Service is underestimating the low temperatures. It's already down to around 9 degrees here, and the fact that there are no clouds in the sky will allow much more cooling to occur overnight. I expect lows to be a little below -5 tomorrow morning, which should be enough for a "cold day".
Beyond tonight, expect 1-2" of snow tomorrow as a low pressure system passes to our south. Tomorrow night, expect winds of 10-15 mph to combine with below zero temperatures to produce wind chills of -20 degrees, which will likely necessitate a wind chill advisory.
Thursday night, the core of the cold air will be over us. Lows will drop well below -5, and even though there won't be much wind, wind chills will probably still be around -15 or -20 degrees.
However, I still expect a "cold day" tomorrow. For one thing, I feel that the National Weather Service is underestimating the low temperatures. It's already down to around 9 degrees here, and the fact that there are no clouds in the sky will allow much more cooling to occur overnight. I expect lows to be a little below -5 tomorrow morning, which should be enough for a "cold day".
Beyond tonight, expect 1-2" of snow tomorrow as a low pressure system passes to our south. Tomorrow night, expect winds of 10-15 mph to combine with below zero temperatures to produce wind chills of -20 degrees, which will likely necessitate a wind chill advisory.
Thursday night, the core of the cold air will be over us. Lows will drop well below -5, and even though there won't be much wind, wind chills will probably still be around -15 or -20 degrees.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Final Snow Day Forecast For Tomorrow
A clipper (low pressure system that comes down from Canada) will bring a quick burst of heavy snow to our area early tomorrow morning. 3-5" of snow should fall between 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. tomorrow morning. This snow will combine with 20-25 mph winds to cause near whiteout conditions during the rush hour tomorrow morning. Also, temperatures will fall from around 25 degrees tonight to around 5 degrees by the end of the day tomorrow. Wind chills will likely be below 0 by the time we get out of school tomorrow.
So, all of this seemingly looks good for a snow day. It's a tough call to make, but I honestly don't see us getting a snow day tomorrow.
For one thing, the 20-25 mph winds may not come until after we get to school tomorrow morning. Therefore, the morning commute to school could be okay, with 2-4" of snow on the ground and moderate-to-heavy snow continuing to fall. In other words, the same thing we've driven to school in about 5 times this year. Also, we have better chances for snow/cold days from Wednesday-Friday, when wind chill advisories or warnings will be in effect, with lows around -10F and wind chills between -15F and -25F.
However, there are a few plusses for a snow day tomorrow, most notably that near whiteout conditions will still be present when we leave school tomorrow.
So, this honestly comes down to a gut feel, as there are good indicators pointing towards having a snow day and not having a snow day. And my gut feel tells me that we won't have school cancelled for 3-5" of snow when there are better opportunities to have school cancelled later in the week.
So, all of this seemingly looks good for a snow day. It's a tough call to make, but I honestly don't see us getting a snow day tomorrow.
For one thing, the 20-25 mph winds may not come until after we get to school tomorrow morning. Therefore, the morning commute to school could be okay, with 2-4" of snow on the ground and moderate-to-heavy snow continuing to fall. In other words, the same thing we've driven to school in about 5 times this year. Also, we have better chances for snow/cold days from Wednesday-Friday, when wind chill advisories or warnings will be in effect, with lows around -10F and wind chills between -15F and -25F.
However, there are a few plusses for a snow day tomorrow, most notably that near whiteout conditions will still be present when we leave school tomorrow.
So, this honestly comes down to a gut feel, as there are good indicators pointing towards having a snow day and not having a snow day. And my gut feel tells me that we won't have school cancelled for 3-5" of snow when there are better opportunities to have school cancelled later in the week.
Day-by-day
We could get snow/cold days on four days this week.
Tuesday: We are going to see 2-4" of snow tonight and 1-3" of snow tomorrow for a total of 3-6" of snow with the next system moving through. This amount of snow combined with wind gusts of 25 mph will allow for near-whiteout conditions tomorrow morning. However, temperatures are not supposed to be very cold until after school Tuesday, so I think we have school tomorrow. Tough call though.
Then, on Wednesday through Friday, we should have a good chance of a snow day each day, because we should have lows well below 0 Tuesday Night through Thursday Night, with wind chills between -10 and -25 degrees each night. Conditions will be especially dangerous Thursday Morning as we should get another 3-6" of snow on Wednesday and Wednesday Nightm, and winds of up to 30 mph will allow all that snow to blow around again. However, unlike tomorrow morning, temperatures will be below 0 Thursday Morning and wind chills will probably be flirting with -25 degrees. So, I would say Thursday has to be the best chance for a snow/cold day this week, followed by Wednesday and Friday.
Basically, to summarize, here's why we could get snow/cold days on Tuesday through Friday.
Tuesday: 3-6" of snow Monday Night - Tuesday Morning, near whiteout conditions.
Wednesday: Extremely cold temperatures; -15F wind chills
Thursday: 3-6" of snow Wednesday Afternoon - Early Thursday Morning; wind chills up to -25F
Friday: Same as Wednesday
Tuesday: We are going to see 2-4" of snow tonight and 1-3" of snow tomorrow for a total of 3-6" of snow with the next system moving through. This amount of snow combined with wind gusts of 25 mph will allow for near-whiteout conditions tomorrow morning. However, temperatures are not supposed to be very cold until after school Tuesday, so I think we have school tomorrow. Tough call though.
Then, on Wednesday through Friday, we should have a good chance of a snow day each day, because we should have lows well below 0 Tuesday Night through Thursday Night, with wind chills between -10 and -25 degrees each night. Conditions will be especially dangerous Thursday Morning as we should get another 3-6" of snow on Wednesday and Wednesday Nightm, and winds of up to 30 mph will allow all that snow to blow around again. However, unlike tomorrow morning, temperatures will be below 0 Thursday Morning and wind chills will probably be flirting with -25 degrees. So, I would say Thursday has to be the best chance for a snow/cold day this week, followed by Wednesday and Friday.
Basically, to summarize, here's why we could get snow/cold days on Tuesday through Friday.
Tuesday: 3-6" of snow Monday Night - Tuesday Morning, near whiteout conditions.
Wednesday: Extremely cold temperatures; -15F wind chills
Thursday: 3-6" of snow Wednesday Afternoon - Early Thursday Morning; wind chills up to -25F
Friday: Same as Wednesday
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Snowfall Map for the Monday/Tuesday Storm
Not going to make one at this point as it appears to be a widespread 3-6" event for all of SE Michigan. However, I like our snow day chances with this one. The height of the event will occur at rush hour Tuesday Morning and wind gusts up to 35 mph will allow for near blizzard conditions and wind chills well below 0.
A more detailed discussion on why we could have anywhere from 0 to 4 snow days next week will come by 8:00 p.m. tonight.
A more detailed discussion on why we could have anywhere from 0 to 4 snow days next week will come by 8:00 p.m. tonight.
2 Nuggets of Good News
1) The latest forecast models have shown a potential increase in the amount of snow that is expected to fall with the next system. Therefore, I will bump up my forecasted accumulations from 2-4" to 3-6", with the potential for higher amounts. I will make my first snowfall map for this system tomorrow morning. As an aside, this is now looking more like a Tuesday Morning system, with snow starting just before midnight on Monday and continuing into the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. The height of the system looks to be right at rush hour Tuesday Morning.
2) La Nina has returned! This atmospheric phenomenon, in which water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, is what led to us getting the favorable storm tracks that allowed us to get several 6+" snowstorms last year. Due to this, expect a snowier than average February and March.
Article describing La Nina in greater detail: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=lanina200809
2) La Nina has returned! This atmospheric phenomenon, in which water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, is what led to us getting the favorable storm tracks that allowed us to get several 6+" snowstorms last year. Due to this, expect a snowier than average February and March.
Article describing La Nina in greater detail: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=lanina200809
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Busy Week Coming Up
Alright, lots of things to talk about. So, here we go.
Let's start with the system today. Forecast model guidance and radar trends support that this system is going to be slower, and will bring more snowfall to our area than it was through to bring at this time yesterday. It seems like we have about an inch of snow already on the ground from yesterday. Later today, an area of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall will move in from the Chicago area. I would expect 3-6 more inches from this area of snow, for a storm total of 4-7" in our area. Unfortunately, this storm happened about a day to soon for us to get any chance of a snow day from it.
Next up is a system that will quickly move through the area on Monday Night. The main story with this system is that this is the one that will bring the first shot of bitterly cold air to our area. Still though, it will produce some snow. Temperatures will already be cold when this system moves through so expect high snow-to-water ratios. Snow to water ratios are a measure of how many inches of snow one would get from one inch of rain falling. The normal snow to water ratio is about 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain; for this system, we're expecting about 20 inches of snow for every inch of rain. For this system, we're expecting the equivalent of 0.1-0.2" of rain to fall as snow. High snow-to-water ratios support a fluffy, powdery type of snow, so expect about 2-4" of easy to shovel snow. Travel will be difficult on Tuesday Morning because of this.
The third system will move through on Wednesday Night. There is still some uncertainty with the track of this system. The current track I am leaning towards is through Southern Ohio. This would be too far south for us to get any significant accumulation. However, some forecast models have shown this system moving through Northern Ohio. If this occurs, we could potentially get up to 6" of powdery snow due to the extremely cold temperatures allowing for very high snow-to-water ratios.
The real story though, in my opinion, is the bitter cold snap we will get for several days next week. Starting Tuesday and ending around Saturday, temperatures in this cold snap will struggle to get out of the single digits during the day, and will fall well below 0 overnight. We could certainly see lows of around -10F for at least one night during this cold snap. Expect a high chance for several "cold days" with this cold snap, either due to the buses not starting or due to the fact that any winds would send wind chills plunging into dangerous territory.
Here's a sample of wind chills for when temperatures are at 0F and -5F.
Wind chills when temperatures are at 0 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = 0F
5 mph = -11F
10mph = -16F
15mph = -19F
Wind chills when temperatures are at -5 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = -5F
5 mph = -16F
10 mph = -22F
15 mph = -26F
For the whole table, the site is http://www.weather.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml.
Bottom Line: If the forecasted low temperatures actually verify, I would not be surprised to see cold days called every day from Wednesday on next week.
Let's start with the system today. Forecast model guidance and radar trends support that this system is going to be slower, and will bring more snowfall to our area than it was through to bring at this time yesterday. It seems like we have about an inch of snow already on the ground from yesterday. Later today, an area of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall will move in from the Chicago area. I would expect 3-6 more inches from this area of snow, for a storm total of 4-7" in our area. Unfortunately, this storm happened about a day to soon for us to get any chance of a snow day from it.
Next up is a system that will quickly move through the area on Monday Night. The main story with this system is that this is the one that will bring the first shot of bitterly cold air to our area. Still though, it will produce some snow. Temperatures will already be cold when this system moves through so expect high snow-to-water ratios. Snow to water ratios are a measure of how many inches of snow one would get from one inch of rain falling. The normal snow to water ratio is about 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain; for this system, we're expecting about 20 inches of snow for every inch of rain. For this system, we're expecting the equivalent of 0.1-0.2" of rain to fall as snow. High snow-to-water ratios support a fluffy, powdery type of snow, so expect about 2-4" of easy to shovel snow. Travel will be difficult on Tuesday Morning because of this.
The third system will move through on Wednesday Night. There is still some uncertainty with the track of this system. The current track I am leaning towards is through Southern Ohio. This would be too far south for us to get any significant accumulation. However, some forecast models have shown this system moving through Northern Ohio. If this occurs, we could potentially get up to 6" of powdery snow due to the extremely cold temperatures allowing for very high snow-to-water ratios.
The real story though, in my opinion, is the bitter cold snap we will get for several days next week. Starting Tuesday and ending around Saturday, temperatures in this cold snap will struggle to get out of the single digits during the day, and will fall well below 0 overnight. We could certainly see lows of around -10F for at least one night during this cold snap. Expect a high chance for several "cold days" with this cold snap, either due to the buses not starting or due to the fact that any winds would send wind chills plunging into dangerous territory.
Here's a sample of wind chills for when temperatures are at 0F and -5F.
Wind chills when temperatures are at 0 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = 0F
5 mph = -11F
10mph = -16F
15mph = -19F
Wind chills when temperatures are at -5 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = -5F
5 mph = -16F
10 mph = -22F
15 mph = -26F
For the whole table, the site is http://www.weather.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml.
Bottom Line: If the forecasted low temperatures actually verify, I would not be surprised to see cold days called every day from Wednesday on next week.
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Briefly
Two notable events should occur in the next week. I'll discuss the first one in much more detail after school today, and I'll keep an eye on the second one.
First...
There appears to be increasing confidence that a low pressure system moving south of the area Friday Night and Saturday will slow down and stall for a brief period of time. Therefore, accumulations are more likely to be in the 4-8" range now from Friday Night - Saturday, as opposed to the 2-5" totals that were expected earlier. This won't give us a snow day (Friday Night snowstorms are the WORST for possible snow days), but it could easily be our 2nd biggest accumulation of the season. (Current 2nd biggest accumulation is around 5")
Second...
There could be one (or more) cold days next week as an arctic airmass moves into the area. Low temperatures will likely dive below 0 for at least one day next week, with wind chills potentially getting into the dangerously cold area of -15 to -25 degrees if it's windy enough. Keep an eye on this possibility.
First...
There appears to be increasing confidence that a low pressure system moving south of the area Friday Night and Saturday will slow down and stall for a brief period of time. Therefore, accumulations are more likely to be in the 4-8" range now from Friday Night - Saturday, as opposed to the 2-5" totals that were expected earlier. This won't give us a snow day (Friday Night snowstorms are the WORST for possible snow days), but it could easily be our 2nd biggest accumulation of the season. (Current 2nd biggest accumulation is around 5")
Second...
There could be one (or more) cold days next week as an arctic airmass moves into the area. Low temperatures will likely dive below 0 for at least one day next week, with wind chills potentially getting into the dangerously cold area of -15 to -25 degrees if it's windy enough. Keep an eye on this possibility.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Actually...
Haven't written a discussion in a while so, I'm not going to lie, I'm easing back into this and this discussion therefore isn't going to be as detailed as usual (tough to get motivated to write your first discussion of the new year on a storm that was at one point a threat to be another significant storm but has since diminished to be just another run of the mill Michigan 2-4" snow event).
This system is going to have great dynamics; however, the heavy precipitation is going to fall on the east side of the system. This really isn't a good system for many people. Those seeing a lot of precipitation out of this will be seeing it fall in the form of ice or rain. Meanwhile, those on the cold side of the system will see snow falling, but it will be light. I therefore expect between 2-4" of snow to fall in about an 18 hour timeframe from Tuesday Evening to Wednesday Afternoon.
This system is going to have great dynamics; however, the heavy precipitation is going to fall on the east side of the system. This really isn't a good system for many people. Those seeing a lot of precipitation out of this will be seeing it fall in the form of ice or rain. Meanwhile, those on the cold side of the system will see snow falling, but it will be light. I therefore expect between 2-4" of snow to fall in about an 18 hour timeframe from Tuesday Evening to Wednesday Afternoon.
For the next storm
All I have to say is: major disappointment. We definitely won't be getting a snow day out of this one. I'll have a more complete discussion up around 9:00 tonight.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Freezing Rain Advisory Today
An area of freezing rain will move into Lake Orion in the next hour. However, our ice accumulations will only be around 0.1" max. Also, temperatures will warm above freezing this afternoon, giving the ice time to melt. Therefore, this is really not a good setup for a snow day. Look for the Tuesday Night - Wednesday Storm to probably bring a better chance for a snow day.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Next storm?
Confidence is increasing that another winter storm will impact our area in the Tuesday Night - Wednesday timeframe. Depending on the track of the storm, precipitation could fall as either snow or rain, but it appears that some type of precipitation will occur in the Tuesday Night - Wednesday timeframe.
More details on this in the days to come.
More details on this in the days to come.
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