Nothing really has changed with regards to the storm system that will affect us tomorrow. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow morning for the expected ice that we will get at the onset of the precipitation from this storm. We could pick up 0.1, maybe 0.2" of ice, but by late morning temperatures will rise above freezing ending the ice threat as the precipitation changes to rain. Roads will probably be a little messed up until the precipitation changes to rain, but I don't expect any major problems.
As an aside, this is another extremely notable storm system. Oklahoma City is getting an all time record for snowfall -- upwards of 12" of snow will fall there when all is said and done. As the snow shield moves north with the low pressure system, blizzard conditions will be felt all across the Plains with some areas likely reporting upwards of 24" of snow at the end of this event. This continues the string of notable storm systems this December.
Getting back to our area, the low pressure system will move north but eventually stall out in Iowa for a day before tracking northeast. This will allow several disturbances to move through the area, giving us several chances for snow showers through Monday. In the heaviest snow showers, minor accumulations are possible, but nothing significant is expected.
The only other thing worth mentioning is a storm that has a small chance of occuring around New Year's Day. The likely solution is for a weak system to move through, but there is a small chance that the storm could phase (combine with) another system moving through the Southern U.S. If this happens, a more notable storm could result. The odds are on that not happening, but with such a boring winter I figure the possibility is at least worth mentioning.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Starting Back Up With The Once Per Day Posting
Alright so I've decided to start back up with the once per day posting unless there is absolutely nothing going on weatherwise in the next week.
First, let's quickly go over the storm that will affect us for the next few days. Precipitation will likely start as freezing rain early Christmas Morning, because the air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is warm, but the air at ground level is below freezing. Once the ground temperature goes above freezing, precipitation will turn to rain. Before this happens, we should probably get around a tenth of an inch of ice, which will make the roads fairly slick for anyone traveling early on Christmas Morning
Christmas Day will be a rainy mess, but once the ice melts nothing bad as far as roads are concerned. One could make a case for the weather on Christmas Day being a fitting symbol for our winter so far...
Eventually, the low pressure system causing all of this weather will meander around Iowa for a day and then head northeast through Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Cold air will rush in and cause occasional snow showers during this time.
Looking at the long range, it appears we will be setting into a pattern of cold air. However, this cold air most likely will work to keep storm tracks suppressed to the south. Obviously this could change because it is the long range, but it appears that we will likely have at least a week or two more of boring weather.
Average snowfall for the Lake Orion area should be around 18" through December 31st. I would be surprised if we got 10" through December 31st. (We're currently sitting at 7.5")
Eventually, I feel that we will get a big snowstorm (8+" at once) at some point this winter. This is Michigan after all, and the storm track so far this winter has been about as unfavorable as possible for our area.
That's it for tonight's post, I'll have another post tomorrow evening.
First, let's quickly go over the storm that will affect us for the next few days. Precipitation will likely start as freezing rain early Christmas Morning, because the air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is warm, but the air at ground level is below freezing. Once the ground temperature goes above freezing, precipitation will turn to rain. Before this happens, we should probably get around a tenth of an inch of ice, which will make the roads fairly slick for anyone traveling early on Christmas Morning
Christmas Day will be a rainy mess, but once the ice melts nothing bad as far as roads are concerned. One could make a case for the weather on Christmas Day being a fitting symbol for our winter so far...
Eventually, the low pressure system causing all of this weather will meander around Iowa for a day and then head northeast through Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Cold air will rush in and cause occasional snow showers during this time.
Looking at the long range, it appears we will be setting into a pattern of cold air. However, this cold air most likely will work to keep storm tracks suppressed to the south. Obviously this could change because it is the long range, but it appears that we will likely have at least a week or two more of boring weather.
Average snowfall for the Lake Orion area should be around 18" through December 31st. I would be surprised if we got 10" through December 31st. (We're currently sitting at 7.5")
Eventually, I feel that we will get a big snowstorm (8+" at once) at some point this winter. This is Michigan after all, and the storm track so far this winter has been about as unfavorable as possible for our area.
That's it for tonight's post, I'll have another post tomorrow evening.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Christmas Eve/Christmas Storm
At this time, nothing all that significant is expected out of the Christmas Eve/Christmas storm. We will likely see a mixture of snow sleet and freezing rain on Christmas Eve, transitioning to all rain on Christmas Day. ATTM the biggest problem will be up to a quarter inch of ice making roads slick and potentially causing a few power outages Christmas Eve.
All in all not a big storm but I'll post a slightly more detailed discussion tomorrow evening just b/c this is the first thing worth mentioning in a while.
For those who care, we are up to 7.5" of snow on the year, which unsurprisingly is running below normal.
As for the future, there are going to be more storm opportunities. This winter is an active one, with big storms; however, all of the storms are either tracking too far east or west for our benefit.
Eventually though, we should get a favorable track from one of these storms, (a) because of simple probability and chance, and (b) because El Nino should become weaker as the winter goes on, which generally gives our area a favorable storm track.
All in all not a big storm but I'll post a slightly more detailed discussion tomorrow evening just b/c this is the first thing worth mentioning in a while.
For those who care, we are up to 7.5" of snow on the year, which unsurprisingly is running below normal.
As for the future, there are going to be more storm opportunities. This winter is an active one, with big storms; however, all of the storms are either tracking too far east or west for our benefit.
Eventually though, we should get a favorable track from one of these storms, (a) because of simple probability and chance, and (b) because El Nino should become weaker as the winter goes on, which generally gives our area a favorable storm track.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Brief Update...Possibility of a storm around Christmas?
Hey guys, still pretty much on hiatus because nothing interesting is happening in the near term. Just though I'd give a little bit of an update. It now is starting to look like there is a possibility of a storm around the 23rd-25th of December. I have to emphasize that it is literally a guess as to where the storm will go, since the timeframe is still 6-8 days away. However, I expect the forecast models to get a better handle on this storm in the next 2-3 days. The plan right now is to have a real discussion on the potential of a storm on Sunday at noon, assuming my computer is fixed by then.
In the near term, it will stay cold for the next week, with temperatures remaining below freezing (except for tomorrow when it will get into the mid 30's). A few clipper systems will dive down from Canada during this time, and if any of these takes the right track we could get up to an inch of snow. However, there really isn't a chance of anything significant until the 23rd-25th.
In the near term, it will stay cold for the next week, with temperatures remaining below freezing (except for tomorrow when it will get into the mid 30's). A few clipper systems will dive down from Canada during this time, and if any of these takes the right track we could get up to an inch of snow. However, there really isn't a chance of anything significant until the 23rd-25th.
Monday, December 14, 2009
On Hiatus
I will be posting very little, or not at all, until Sunday, December 20th. We aren't going to see any snow totaling over 1" until around Christmas Eve at the earliest, and there's really no point in talking about that until around Saturday or Sunday.
I'll post if anything changes, but we are in a very uneventful weather pattern, and therefore there's not really any point in me posting until Sunday.
Here's hoping for some snowstorms after winter break.
I'll post if anything changes, but we are in a very uneventful weather pattern, and therefore there's not really any point in me posting until Sunday.
Here's hoping for some snowstorms after winter break.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
And sure enough...
we don't have a snow day. Lots of hype b/c of icy roads, but icy roads happen all the time over the course of a Michigan winter. This was just the first time. The facts, a forecasted 2-4" of snow, did not support a snow day and sure enough, we didn't get one.
Anyways, about 2" more to boost our season total to 4.5". By the time the occasional snow showers end tonight, we probably will pick up another inch.
Anyways, about 2" more to boost our season total to 4.5". By the time the occasional snow showers end tonight, we probably will pick up another inch.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Update...***Still think we will not have a snow day***
Roads are apparently becoming icy now that some heavy snow/sleet is falling. I think that they will be okay for tomorrow morning, however, this obviously adds to my equation in my below post, therefore raising the chances of a snow day.
I still don't think we'll have one, though.
***Update #2***
Winter weather advisory issued until 10 am for 2-4" of snow...definitely another thing helping our chances. Could it happen??? I still don't think so, because I've gotten burned by events just like this in the past, but it has become somewhat more likely since I made my first post.
I still don't think we'll have one, though.
***Update #2***
Winter weather advisory issued until 10 am for 2-4" of snow...definitely another thing helping our chances. Could it happen??? I still don't think so, because I've gotten burned by events just like this in the past, but it has become somewhat more likely since I made my first post.
School tomorrow? First nonzero snow day chance...
I'm going to break down our snow day chances into three parts:
Wind/Whiteout Conditions: As some people may have already guessed by now, the forecast of 50-60 mph wind gusts with this storm was a bust. Wind gusts topped out at about 45 mph late this afternoon. Sure, that's strong, but it's nothing too out of the ordinary when it comes to Michigan weather. Wind gusts between 30-45 mph should continue through late afternoon tomorrow. Still, though, when combined with heavy snow, those winds should cause near-whiteout conditions. We will get occasional heavy snow overnight, but I wouldn't rely on it for a snow day. The near-whiteout conditions just aren't going to happen frequently enough.
Updated Snow Map (8 pm tonight - 5 pm tomorrow)
Icing On Roads: Nonfactor. Drove on some dirt roads...there is almost no icing. As is usually the case when temperatures quickly drop below freezing, the wind caused the rain to evaporate before it could freeze on the roadways.
Power Outage: This is really what any hope of a snow day hinges on. According to DTE's twitter page, there are about 40,000 outages right now because of this storm. I'd assume that number will go up to between 75,000 and 100,000 by the end of this storm. The wind isn't extrordinarily bad, but it's enough to knock out more power, especially when combined with the occasionally heavy snow and sleet we're going to get overnight. So...there is some chance of a power outage, but not enough to make me think we have a good chance of a snow day.
So...in conclusion:
Wind/Whiteout Conditions: Will happen, but not frequently enough.
Icing On Roads: Nonfactor
Power Outages: There will be some, but they won't be widespread.
Therefore, I unfortunately have to make the prediction that we will have school tomorrow.
Wind/Whiteout Conditions: As some people may have already guessed by now, the forecast of 50-60 mph wind gusts with this storm was a bust. Wind gusts topped out at about 45 mph late this afternoon. Sure, that's strong, but it's nothing too out of the ordinary when it comes to Michigan weather. Wind gusts between 30-45 mph should continue through late afternoon tomorrow. Still, though, when combined with heavy snow, those winds should cause near-whiteout conditions. We will get occasional heavy snow overnight, but I wouldn't rely on it for a snow day. The near-whiteout conditions just aren't going to happen frequently enough.
Updated Snow Map (8 pm tonight - 5 pm tomorrow)
Icing On Roads: Nonfactor. Drove on some dirt roads...there is almost no icing. As is usually the case when temperatures quickly drop below freezing, the wind caused the rain to evaporate before it could freeze on the roadways.
Power Outage: This is really what any hope of a snow day hinges on. According to DTE's twitter page, there are about 40,000 outages right now because of this storm. I'd assume that number will go up to between 75,000 and 100,000 by the end of this storm. The wind isn't extrordinarily bad, but it's enough to knock out more power, especially when combined with the occasionally heavy snow and sleet we're going to get overnight. So...there is some chance of a power outage, but not enough to make me think we have a good chance of a snow day.
So...in conclusion:
Wind/Whiteout Conditions: Will happen, but not frequently enough.
Icing On Roads: Nonfactor
Power Outages: There will be some, but they won't be widespread.
Therefore, I unfortunately have to make the prediction that we will have school tomorrow.
2.5" of snow
Of course it's melting now...but we're "on the board" for winter 2009-10 as far as accumulating snow goes.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
No snow day tomorrow, but what about Thursday?
The precipitation shield from the large storm system is currently on our doorstep, as a look at the current radar confirms:
Precipitation should begin falling within the hour, and it should fall as snow, at least at the start. After a few hours though, the warm air that is moving into the area will cause the precipitation to change over to rain. Before then, though, the snow that falls could be rather heavy, and therefore I am sticking with my forecast for 1-3" of snow for Lake Orion. We should have no trouble getting at least an inch out of this initial band, and I tend to feel that if we get just 3-4 hours of snow before the changeover occurs, we'll get at least 2 inches. However, once the rain starts falling, I expect the snow to melt away just as quickly as it accumulates, with the end result of very little snow on the ground when we wake up tomorrow.
All in all, I continue to like my snow map from last night:
.
Tomorrow evening through Thursday morning is when things get interesting. First of all, the low pressure system is going to rapidly strengthen as it passes to our northwest (in fact it's going to be one of the strongest winter storms to affect the Midwest in the last 5 years). This is going to result in very strong winds. In fact, a high wind watch has been posted. I expect us to get 35 mph sustained winds with 55 mph wind gusts from early afternoon Wednesday to early morning Thursday. Winds will continue to gust above 40 mph through Thursday afternoon.
Compounding the problem of high winds is the expectation of a decent lake effect snow event tomorrow night and during the day on Thursday behind the low pressure system. Winds will be out of the west, and very strong, which means that we are set up pretty good for lake effect snow. The problem with lake effect snow is that just a 5 degree difference in wind direction means a large difference in where the main band of snow sets up. As of right now, I expect the main band to set up in the vicinity of the M-59 corridor.
These two simulated radar images for 11 pm tomorrow night and 2 am Thursday morning pretty much represent where I think the main band of snow will be.
Based on these expectations, here's my snow forecast from 5 p.m. tomorrow night to 1 p.m. Thursday afternoon.
An important thing to note from the above map is that just a few miles could make a large difference in your snow totals; therefore, this forecast is subject to change. However, if we actually get 2-4" of snow falling, that would prove to be problematic. Combined with the 40-50 mph winds, it would cause near whiteout conditions. Combined that with the possibility of power outages, and the possibility of rain freezing over on the dirt roads, and you begin to get several things that *could* cause a snow day on Thursday.
Therefore, I'll raise the snow day grade for Thursday to a "C". I'm still leaning towards us not getting a snow day on Thursday, and I will probably predict that tomorrow night, but there's definitely a chance.
Precipitation should begin falling within the hour, and it should fall as snow, at least at the start. After a few hours though, the warm air that is moving into the area will cause the precipitation to change over to rain. Before then, though, the snow that falls could be rather heavy, and therefore I am sticking with my forecast for 1-3" of snow for Lake Orion. We should have no trouble getting at least an inch out of this initial band, and I tend to feel that if we get just 3-4 hours of snow before the changeover occurs, we'll get at least 2 inches. However, once the rain starts falling, I expect the snow to melt away just as quickly as it accumulates, with the end result of very little snow on the ground when we wake up tomorrow.
All in all, I continue to like my snow map from last night:
.Tomorrow evening through Thursday morning is when things get interesting. First of all, the low pressure system is going to rapidly strengthen as it passes to our northwest (in fact it's going to be one of the strongest winter storms to affect the Midwest in the last 5 years). This is going to result in very strong winds. In fact, a high wind watch has been posted. I expect us to get 35 mph sustained winds with 55 mph wind gusts from early afternoon Wednesday to early morning Thursday. Winds will continue to gust above 40 mph through Thursday afternoon.
Compounding the problem of high winds is the expectation of a decent lake effect snow event tomorrow night and during the day on Thursday behind the low pressure system. Winds will be out of the west, and very strong, which means that we are set up pretty good for lake effect snow. The problem with lake effect snow is that just a 5 degree difference in wind direction means a large difference in where the main band of snow sets up. As of right now, I expect the main band to set up in the vicinity of the M-59 corridor.
These two simulated radar images for 11 pm tomorrow night and 2 am Thursday morning pretty much represent where I think the main band of snow will be.
Based on these expectations, here's my snow forecast from 5 p.m. tomorrow night to 1 p.m. Thursday afternoon.
An important thing to note from the above map is that just a few miles could make a large difference in your snow totals; therefore, this forecast is subject to change. However, if we actually get 2-4" of snow falling, that would prove to be problematic. Combined with the 40-50 mph winds, it would cause near whiteout conditions. Combined that with the possibility of power outages, and the possibility of rain freezing over on the dirt roads, and you begin to get several things that *could* cause a snow day on Thursday.
Therefore, I'll raise the snow day grade for Thursday to a "C". I'm still leaning towards us not getting a snow day on Thursday, and I will probably predict that tomorrow night, but there's definitely a chance.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Tinkering With My Forecast & First Snowfall Map
Since my post yesterday morning, the forecast models have stayed remarkably consistent with this storm. Therefore, I will make only minor changes with my storm track. I'll adjust the track only the slightest bit northward, going from Oklahoma to St. Louis to just south of Chicago and into the Saginaw Bay.
However, despite the consistent track, it will not be until the last minute that anyone will be certain about the effects of this storm, due to the fact that we will be so close to the rain/snow line. I do know for sure that we will receive rain from this storm for an extended period of time. What I do not know is exactly when the snow will change over to rain tomorrow night, which will have adverse effects on our accumulation totals with the first band of snow tomorrow night. Right now, I believe that the snow will start a little earlier than previously expected, around 9:00 p.m. I believe we will have a good 3-5 hours of snowfall before the precipitation changes over to rain. This is a little less time than previously expected; therefore, I will put accumulations down to 1-3" inches. The National Weather Service currently has us forecast for only 1" of snow tomorrow night; however, I feel we'll see light/moderate snow for at least 3 hours, which I believe is enough time to pick up more than an inch of snow. Therefore, the high end of my accumulation is more than their accumulation forecast.
To our south, the snow will change over to rain rather quickly, therefore, locations to the south will receive less snow. To our north, precipitation will stay as snow longer; in fact, the Tri-Cities area could stay as all snow for the entire storm. Therefore, locations to our north will receive more snow.
Here's my snow map for the time period 8:00 p.m. Tuesday - 8:00 a.m. Wednesday. Please note that north and west of Saginaw could see some more snow during the day on Wednesday, and everyone will see more snow Wednesday Night. I'll have my snow map for the entire storm out tomorrow night.
Beyond the minor change up in the initial band of snow, I still expect the rest of the storm to play out the same as what I said yesterday morning. So, if you're looking for the forecast for Wednesday, scroll down to the last post.
Snow Day Chances:
Wednesday: I'd put this at an "E" except for the fact that there is a small possibility for ice early Wednesday Morning. If ice occurs, it would be because a high pressure system to our northeast could produce easterly winds bringing in cold air. If this happens, it is conceivable that the warm Gulf of Mexico air that the strong low pressure is bringing up could "overrun" the cold air and the rain could freeze as it hits the ground, producing (obviously) freezing rain. However, this is a small possibility in the first place and even if ice occurred, its effects would likely be mitigated by the snow already on the ground. Still, I'll just leave the grade at a "D" for Wednesday just to be safe. It's a low "D" though.
Thursday: This is a better chance than Wednesday. 40-50 mph winds will move cold air in really quickly, potentially causing a "flash freeze" as temperatures drop 5-10 degrees per hour, quickly freezing over the rain that will have fallen on Wednesday. Not only that, but the 40-50 mph winds will also give us a good setup for lake effect snow. When snow does occur, near whiteout conditions will result, due to the 40-50 mph winds. Lastly, the winds could cause some power outages. However, I've gotten burned predicting snow days before with conditions like these, and therefore I'm extremely hesitant to move the snow day grade above a "D". It's a high "D" though.
However, despite the consistent track, it will not be until the last minute that anyone will be certain about the effects of this storm, due to the fact that we will be so close to the rain/snow line. I do know for sure that we will receive rain from this storm for an extended period of time. What I do not know is exactly when the snow will change over to rain tomorrow night, which will have adverse effects on our accumulation totals with the first band of snow tomorrow night. Right now, I believe that the snow will start a little earlier than previously expected, around 9:00 p.m. I believe we will have a good 3-5 hours of snowfall before the precipitation changes over to rain. This is a little less time than previously expected; therefore, I will put accumulations down to 1-3" inches. The National Weather Service currently has us forecast for only 1" of snow tomorrow night; however, I feel we'll see light/moderate snow for at least 3 hours, which I believe is enough time to pick up more than an inch of snow. Therefore, the high end of my accumulation is more than their accumulation forecast.
To our south, the snow will change over to rain rather quickly, therefore, locations to the south will receive less snow. To our north, precipitation will stay as snow longer; in fact, the Tri-Cities area could stay as all snow for the entire storm. Therefore, locations to our north will receive more snow.
Here's my snow map for the time period 8:00 p.m. Tuesday - 8:00 a.m. Wednesday. Please note that north and west of Saginaw could see some more snow during the day on Wednesday, and everyone will see more snow Wednesday Night. I'll have my snow map for the entire storm out tomorrow night.
Beyond the minor change up in the initial band of snow, I still expect the rest of the storm to play out the same as what I said yesterday morning. So, if you're looking for the forecast for Wednesday, scroll down to the last post.
Snow Day Chances:
Wednesday: I'd put this at an "E" except for the fact that there is a small possibility for ice early Wednesday Morning. If ice occurs, it would be because a high pressure system to our northeast could produce easterly winds bringing in cold air. If this happens, it is conceivable that the warm Gulf of Mexico air that the strong low pressure is bringing up could "overrun" the cold air and the rain could freeze as it hits the ground, producing (obviously) freezing rain. However, this is a small possibility in the first place and even if ice occurred, its effects would likely be mitigated by the snow already on the ground. Still, I'll just leave the grade at a "D" for Wednesday just to be safe. It's a low "D" though.
Thursday: This is a better chance than Wednesday. 40-50 mph winds will move cold air in really quickly, potentially causing a "flash freeze" as temperatures drop 5-10 degrees per hour, quickly freezing over the rain that will have fallen on Wednesday. Not only that, but the 40-50 mph winds will also give us a good setup for lake effect snow. When snow does occur, near whiteout conditions will result, due to the 40-50 mph winds. Lastly, the winds could cause some power outages. However, I've gotten burned predicting snow days before with conditions like these, and therefore I'm extremely hesitant to move the snow day grade above a "D". It's a high "D" though.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Large Storm To Impact Area Tuesday Night/Wednesday
An anomalously strong storm system will have adverse effects to our area Tuesday Night - Wednesday. I first mentioned this storm in a post two days ago, stating that we were projected to be in a pretty good spot with this system, but also asking "when is the last time you've heard of a forecast staying exactly the same through five days?" That's why I really try not to hype anything up until it's 3 days or less away from impact, and that once again rings true with this storm system. It still has a good shot at producing some moderate snow accumulations for our area, but the best accumulations will likely occur to our northwest.
There is pretty good agreement between all of the forecast models that I trust about where this system will track.
GFS has it tracking through Saginaw:
NAM, which performed the best w/ regards to last Thursday's storm, has it tracking way north, through Alpena:
ECMWF has an extremely strong storm tracking through Alpena:
UKMET has the storm tracking right about over us:
Finally, the GGEM has the storm tracking over Saginaw:
With this kind of consistency, I am inclined to think that the forecasted track of this system won't change too much over the next 84 hours. The traditional northwest shift and less cold air have already happened, so I'm going on the assumption that the track will no longer shift any more northwest. In fact, it may shift a bit to the SE as the storm the ECMWF is forecasting is almost getting to the historically strong level if it verified. Therefore I'm going with a track similar to the GFS and GGEM, with the storm moving from NW Oklahoma around 7 pm Tuesday to Saginaw around 1 pm Wednesday.
Here is my initial forecast for the track of this storm:
So...enough with the setup of the storm, let's go over what this means for Lake Orion. Here's how I think this storm will go down:
1) As the storm approaches (12-7 am Wednesday): The 2 best things going for us about this storm is that there is going to be a good precipitation shield well ahead of the storm, and that there's going to be a good deal of cold air ahead of the storm. Therefore, as the storm approaches, a band of heavy precipitation should move into SE Michigan starting very early Wednesday Morning (just after Midnight). This precipitation should start to fall as snow. This snow will likely be fairly heavy, and accumulations will pile up quickly. All in all, I expect around 2-4" of accumulation with this initial band of snow.
2) As the storm passes over us (7 am - 4 pm Wednesday): Here's where the details get pretty ugly. The aire in front of the storm will be cold, but the low pressure system will allow a lot of warm Gulf air to move into SE Michigan. Therefore, at some point, I believe the precipitation will turn from snow to rain. In fact, enough rain could fall to melt away the initial 2-4" of snow.
3) As the storm departs (4 pm Wednesday - 11 am Thursday): As a weather lover, I can't help but get excited about this part of the storm. It won't produce huge amounts of snow, but it's going to be cool. As the storm departs, it's going to get stronger. As this happens, wind will pick up from the northwest and extremely cold air will start to move in. At some point, the rain will change back to snow. Additional snow accumulations will likely only be around an inch, maybe 2, but the wind will make things an absolute mess. When snow showers do occur, near whiteout conditions could results, as the snow will be blowing around everywhere. 30 mph winds are expected at the very least, and if winds are a little bit stronger than expected, a wind advisory could be needed. These cold, windy, and snowy conditions will continue to last through the day on Thursday.
Finally...moving on to the snow day impact. To me at least, this seems like a classic storm that gives us a small chance of a snow day. I can find a bunch of positives with this storm w/ regards to snow days. Commutes will be a mess both Wednesday and Thursday Morning. Both mornings could feature near whiteout conditions, because of heavy snow Wednesday Morning and snow showers combined with strong winds Thursday Morning. Not only that, but the strong winds could cause some power outages Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Afternoon.
However, this is all outweighed by one overriding factor: I just don't think it will snow all that much. If we weren't going to change over to rain for 6-9 hours on Wednesday, I'd be thrilled about our snow day chances. However, the fact of the matter is, we probably will change over to rain, and that's going to limit our accumulations to something like 3-5" for the entire storm. From 3 years of experience predicting snow days, I've learned in general that if not enough snow falls, school will likely stay open, no matter how bad potential conditions may be.
So, in conclusion, I think we have to hope for a SE shift in the track of this storm for a good chance of a snow day. That's not outside the realm of possibility, but I think my forecasted track has a >60% chance of verifying. Therefore, I'll use that track to give my snow day grades for Wednesday/Thursday.
Wednesday - D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
Thursday - D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
There is pretty good agreement between all of the forecast models that I trust about where this system will track.
GFS has it tracking through Saginaw:
NAM, which performed the best w/ regards to last Thursday's storm, has it tracking way north, through Alpena:
ECMWF has an extremely strong storm tracking through Alpena:
UKMET has the storm tracking right about over us:
Finally, the GGEM has the storm tracking over Saginaw:
With this kind of consistency, I am inclined to think that the forecasted track of this system won't change too much over the next 84 hours. The traditional northwest shift and less cold air have already happened, so I'm going on the assumption that the track will no longer shift any more northwest. In fact, it may shift a bit to the SE as the storm the ECMWF is forecasting is almost getting to the historically strong level if it verified. Therefore I'm going with a track similar to the GFS and GGEM, with the storm moving from NW Oklahoma around 7 pm Tuesday to Saginaw around 1 pm Wednesday.
Here is my initial forecast for the track of this storm:
So...enough with the setup of the storm, let's go over what this means for Lake Orion. Here's how I think this storm will go down:
1) As the storm approaches (12-7 am Wednesday): The 2 best things going for us about this storm is that there is going to be a good precipitation shield well ahead of the storm, and that there's going to be a good deal of cold air ahead of the storm. Therefore, as the storm approaches, a band of heavy precipitation should move into SE Michigan starting very early Wednesday Morning (just after Midnight). This precipitation should start to fall as snow. This snow will likely be fairly heavy, and accumulations will pile up quickly. All in all, I expect around 2-4" of accumulation with this initial band of snow.
2) As the storm passes over us (7 am - 4 pm Wednesday): Here's where the details get pretty ugly. The aire in front of the storm will be cold, but the low pressure system will allow a lot of warm Gulf air to move into SE Michigan. Therefore, at some point, I believe the precipitation will turn from snow to rain. In fact, enough rain could fall to melt away the initial 2-4" of snow.
3) As the storm departs (4 pm Wednesday - 11 am Thursday): As a weather lover, I can't help but get excited about this part of the storm. It won't produce huge amounts of snow, but it's going to be cool. As the storm departs, it's going to get stronger. As this happens, wind will pick up from the northwest and extremely cold air will start to move in. At some point, the rain will change back to snow. Additional snow accumulations will likely only be around an inch, maybe 2, but the wind will make things an absolute mess. When snow showers do occur, near whiteout conditions could results, as the snow will be blowing around everywhere. 30 mph winds are expected at the very least, and if winds are a little bit stronger than expected, a wind advisory could be needed. These cold, windy, and snowy conditions will continue to last through the day on Thursday.
Finally...moving on to the snow day impact. To me at least, this seems like a classic storm that gives us a small chance of a snow day. I can find a bunch of positives with this storm w/ regards to snow days. Commutes will be a mess both Wednesday and Thursday Morning. Both mornings could feature near whiteout conditions, because of heavy snow Wednesday Morning and snow showers combined with strong winds Thursday Morning. Not only that, but the strong winds could cause some power outages Wednesday Afternoon - Thursday Afternoon.
However, this is all outweighed by one overriding factor: I just don't think it will snow all that much. If we weren't going to change over to rain for 6-9 hours on Wednesday, I'd be thrilled about our snow day chances. However, the fact of the matter is, we probably will change over to rain, and that's going to limit our accumulations to something like 3-5" for the entire storm. From 3 years of experience predicting snow days, I've learned in general that if not enough snow falls, school will likely stay open, no matter how bad potential conditions may be.
So, in conclusion, I think we have to hope for a SE shift in the track of this storm for a good chance of a snow day. That's not outside the realm of possibility, but I think my forecasted track has a >60% chance of verifying. Therefore, I'll use that track to give my snow day grades for Wednesday/Thursday.
Wednesday - D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
Thursday - D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
Saturday, December 5, 2009
No New Post Tonight
New post will for sure be up by noon tomorrow...just don't feel like writing this when I'm tired it wouldn't be very good.
Friday, December 4, 2009
Quick Post...in between events
Well nothing interesting is happening w/ regards to snow right now, and nothing interesting will happen until Wednesday, so just a quick post tonight.
Monday a weak system is still expected to move through. We'll get some snow out of the system, anywhere from 1-2" looks to be a decent bet.
The possible big storm will occur on Wednesday. A strong low pressure system will eject out of the Rockies, zipping quickly off to the ENE. I'm going to be perfectly honest that right now, the models have SE Michigan in a pretty good spot with this system. That's great, but when is the last time you've heard of a forecast staying exactly the same through five days? I'm at least partially excited about this upcoming storm, but I'm going to hold off on hyping it at all for a day or two. For now I'll just put it out there that there is a chance of significant snowfall on Wednesday, if everything works out correctly.
Check back here tomorrow night for a longer post featuring more details of the Wednesday system, as I will be able to state where it will track with a greater certainty, allowing me to discuss realistic snowfall possibilites for our area based on what I feel the track will be.
For now, I'll set the snow day grade for the Wednesday system to a C, simply because we're the frontrunners for receiving a potentially significant snowstorm in 5 days. Specific details obviously can/will change, and as they do, I'll adjust the grade up/down accordingly as we get closer to the event.
Monday a weak system is still expected to move through. We'll get some snow out of the system, anywhere from 1-2" looks to be a decent bet.
The possible big storm will occur on Wednesday. A strong low pressure system will eject out of the Rockies, zipping quickly off to the ENE. I'm going to be perfectly honest that right now, the models have SE Michigan in a pretty good spot with this system. That's great, but when is the last time you've heard of a forecast staying exactly the same through five days? I'm at least partially excited about this upcoming storm, but I'm going to hold off on hyping it at all for a day or two. For now I'll just put it out there that there is a chance of significant snowfall on Wednesday, if everything works out correctly.
Check back here tomorrow night for a longer post featuring more details of the Wednesday system, as I will be able to state where it will track with a greater certainty, allowing me to discuss realistic snowfall possibilites for our area based on what I feel the track will be.
For now, I'll set the snow day grade for the Wednesday system to a C, simply because we're the frontrunners for receiving a potentially significant snowstorm in 5 days. Specific details obviously can/will change, and as they do, I'll adjust the grade up/down accordingly as we get closer to the event.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
First Real Snow of the Season...Yes it's actually gonna happen this time
Yes, we are actually going to get our first real snow of the season tonight. As I said yesterday, this is a nearly perfect setup for lake effect snow for our area (still doesn't mean we're going to get much) and with an upper low moving through the area to help things out, there is an extremely high chance of lake effect snow showers moving through our area overnight.
Let's take a look at the current radar:
Let's take a look at the current radar:
The band stretching roughly along and south of the I-96 has been propogating eastward in from Lake Michigan over the last few hours. This trend is expected to continue overnight, with the band moving through our area around midnight. Snowfall could actually be rather heavy at times with this band, but it will not be a long duration event, so I expect accumulations to be limited to around an inch.
Snow will also fall occasionally tomorrow. It will continue to be rather heavy at times when it does fall, and in the heaviest showers, some minor accumulations could occur.
Looking ahead to the longer range, a weak storm system could move through on Monday with some more minor accumulations. In addition, a stronger storm could move through in the middle of next week, but the models are all over the place with where it's supposed to track, so I'll hold off on talking about that one in detail. Most likely someone will get their first winter storm of the season, but it's anyone's guess who that will be at this point.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Nothing good coming out of this storm...but after?
There is no need to cover the ongoing storm for more than a paragraph, as I already called it a "bust" yesterday and explained why it was a bust, so if that's what you're looking for, scroll down to yesterday's post. Sadly enough, the rain that is currently occurring is the storm that was previously forecast to give us a couple of inches of snow. Obviously...that isn't happening as the cold air just isn't going to come in fast enough to give us anything more than a half inch of snow by the time it departs.
Fortunately for people who have been eagerly anticipating a coating of snow on the ground, a better possibility awaits after this storm exits the area. In its wake, cold air will arrive in earnest, with temperatures falling below freezing tomorrow night. This, combined with a strong westerly flow, will serve to allow for the formation of lake effect snow off of Lake Michigan. For those who don't know, our location isn't in a good spot to receive much lake effect snow, but tomorrow night is a setup we can work with. Snow showers will become likely during the early morning hours on Friday with accumulations of up to an inch possible.
The snow day grade with any of the above mentioned events remains at an E.
Fortunately for people who have been eagerly anticipating a coating of snow on the ground, a better possibility awaits after this storm exits the area. In its wake, cold air will arrive in earnest, with temperatures falling below freezing tomorrow night. This, combined with a strong westerly flow, will serve to allow for the formation of lake effect snow off of Lake Michigan. For those who don't know, our location isn't in a good spot to receive much lake effect snow, but tomorrow night is a setup we can work with. Snow showers will become likely during the early morning hours on Friday with accumulations of up to an inch possible.
The snow day grade with any of the above mentioned events remains at an E.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
First "Bust" of the Season and Lessons Learned
Only one subject to cover tonight, and that is the Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning storm, which is rapidly becoming an early disappointment. While the forecast models, if anything, have shifted a bit to the east from yesterday, two other overriding factors lead me to tone down the accumulation forecast. The first factor is that the cold air just isn't going to come in quickly enough for any significant snow to fall. Obviously, it's early in the meteorological winter so cold air will usually be a problem, but I admit that I never expected it to be this much of a problem. The other factor is that surface observations support the low to track a bit further to the west of where it is being forecasted by the models. This as well does not help snow accumulations. Therefore, I am toning down forecasted accumulations with this storm to around 1".
Obviously, this is disappointing, but the weather is inherently unpredictable and it's a given that most forecasts will have to be adjusted as we get closer to the event. If one looks back through earlier blog entries, one will find many other times when my original accumulation forecast had to be adjusted up or down as the event drew closer (although somehow...only the downward adjustments seem to get noticed :P).
Still, there are lessons to be learned from every busted forecast, and here are the ones I offer up:
1) Expect the westward shift to be present again this winter. A theme of the last few winters has been forecast models ejecting an upper low out of the southwest too quickly, resulting in an original storm track of further east than what actually happens. Based on this storm, that trend may be occurring again this winter and I will have to watch out for that and take that into account when forecasting 3-7 days out.
2) Forecast models usually overdo cold air, especially early in the season. Somehow, cold air always ends up being one of the main problems for almost all winter storms, especially early in the season. Yet forecast models usually don't see this problem until 2-3 days before the storm. After a long break from forecasting, I admittedly underestimated the cold air problem and hope to better account for the cold air problem in future forecasts.
So although this storm won't have much to offer up in the way of snow, it offers me a chance to learn from my mistakes and improve my forecasting as the season goes on. And I would still look for snow to be falling Thursday morning, just not as much as previously expected.
Finally, I would like to close by offering up a new "grading system" of snow day probabilities for Lake Orion. I will still be doing yes/no predictions the night before any significant storm, but for the medium/long range I will offer a quick look at the possibilities of a snow day with a grading scale.
This idea was proposed to me by Vinnie Warren, and I thank him for suggesting it, as it is a good idea.
A = Lock it in, snow day has a great shot at happening
B = Above average chance for a snow day, but there's still things that could go wrong
C = Average chance for a snow day, things could break either way as the storm draws closer
D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
E = Forget about it, move on to the next storm if you only read this for snow day chances
For the Thursday Morning Storm, the current snow day grade is an E.
Obviously, this is disappointing, but the weather is inherently unpredictable and it's a given that most forecasts will have to be adjusted as we get closer to the event. If one looks back through earlier blog entries, one will find many other times when my original accumulation forecast had to be adjusted up or down as the event drew closer (although somehow...only the downward adjustments seem to get noticed :P).
Still, there are lessons to be learned from every busted forecast, and here are the ones I offer up:
1) Expect the westward shift to be present again this winter. A theme of the last few winters has been forecast models ejecting an upper low out of the southwest too quickly, resulting in an original storm track of further east than what actually happens. Based on this storm, that trend may be occurring again this winter and I will have to watch out for that and take that into account when forecasting 3-7 days out.
2) Forecast models usually overdo cold air, especially early in the season. Somehow, cold air always ends up being one of the main problems for almost all winter storms, especially early in the season. Yet forecast models usually don't see this problem until 2-3 days before the storm. After a long break from forecasting, I admittedly underestimated the cold air problem and hope to better account for the cold air problem in future forecasts.
So although this storm won't have much to offer up in the way of snow, it offers me a chance to learn from my mistakes and improve my forecasting as the season goes on. And I would still look for snow to be falling Thursday morning, just not as much as previously expected.
Finally, I would like to close by offering up a new "grading system" of snow day probabilities for Lake Orion. I will still be doing yes/no predictions the night before any significant storm, but for the medium/long range I will offer a quick look at the possibilities of a snow day with a grading scale.
This idea was proposed to me by Vinnie Warren, and I thank him for suggesting it, as it is a good idea.
A = Lock it in, snow day has a great shot at happening
B = Above average chance for a snow day, but there's still things that could go wrong
C = Average chance for a snow day, things could break either way as the storm draws closer
D = Below average chance for a snow day, but it's not impossible
E = Forget about it, move on to the next storm if you only read this for snow day chances
For the Thursday Morning Storm, the current snow day grade is an E.
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