3-5" of Snow Expected Thursday Afternoon - Friday Morning

I'm happy to say that not too much has changed since last night's post w/ regards to the evolution of this system. Therefore, I won't bother restating the specifics of where this system is going and why it sets us up for a decent snowfall. If you are looking for those details, look to the right and click on the link that says "Interesting Storm From Thursday Afternoon - Friday Afternoon".

Anyways, tonight's focus is on expected snow accumulation and possibilities for a snow day.

Currently, I am expecting snow to start around 2 p.m. on Thursday. The snow will start off falling lightly, but will increase in intensity Thursday Evening and Overnight, before tapering off on Friday Morning. There is still some uncertainty with regards to snowfall accumulations. Not much has changed with the precipitation showing up on the forecast models, but as we are now 1 day closer to this event happening, I tend to think that things will pretty much stay as is, and therefore, I will narrow down our forecasted accumulations to 3-5".

There is an interesting possibility for more snow, though. Somewhere north of this upper level low, an enhanced band of snow is likely to set up. Here's one example from the NAM forecast model. Note the increased areas of precipitation in SE Michigan:


If this enhanced band sets up over us, which is not a slam dunk but is possible, we could see a bit more snow than I am currently forecasting. It wouldn't be anything that would give us a slam dunk snow day, but it would make things more interesting.

Now, on to the effects on the commutes and possibilities for a snow day. I expect this storm to adversely impact the Thursday Evening and Friday Morning commutes. Snow will likely be falling Thursday Evening, and may still be falling Friday Morning. In addition, cold temperatures could reduce the impact that salting the roadways may have, so there still may be snow on the roads Friday Morning even if snow has stopped falling by then.

However, here comes the part where I disappoint everyone. The roads will be bad Friday Morning, but I still don't think 3-5" of snow is going to be enough to make the school district call a snow day. I could see it if we get 6+", and that isn't out of the question yet, so I will still give us a "D" grade (school unlikely to be cancelled, but it's not hopeless yet) for a snow day on Friday. Obviously if we could possibly squeeze a couple more inches of snow out of this system than I am currently expecting, the grade will be raised. Don't give up hope yet, but don't expect a snow day either.

Anyways, that's about all I have for tonight. Hang in there, the weather pattern is getting more active for now after 2 weeks of nothing (which came at the best time, right over winter break).

Just some small updates to my snowfall map: