If you're looking for an in-depth discussion of the storm, scroll down to the next post...this post is simply a quick update to say that my hunch about favoring the northern solution seems to be correct, as the GFS model has moved way north. In addition, the NAM model is coming into a useful range, and it is also similar to the GFS & ECMWF. So for now, the northern solution looks to be the way to go. In general, this is good for SE Michigan to see snow, but if this storm track is what ends up happening, we will certainly have to look out for rain to mix with the snow in some places and cut down on accumulations.
In addition, the strength of this system is still in question, as the GFS still has a weak disorganized system, while the NAM and ECMWF have a stronger, more organized system. This would likely lead to higher snowfall accumulations on the NAM & ECMWF, but since a stronger system brings up warmer air, also more potential for rain as opposed to snow. So, there are still certainly issues to figure out. But it looks as though the models are starting to lock in on a storm track that has a good shot of at least bringing a plowable snowstorm to SE Michigan on Sunday.
At this point, the main thing that you guys have to be concerned about is the potential for temperatures to be too warm for any significant snow to fall. This is starting to become a significant concern that will have to be addressed in tomorrow's post. Anyways I'll go in detail more tomorrow afternoon. And like I said, if you want a much more polished post (albeit with old model runs), scroll down below.
As always, feel free to leave questions/comments in the comment section below.
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6 comments:
Every 12z model now favors a northern track mostly through Michigan, but they have the rain/snow line still further south (except for NAM).
The heavy snow track is so narrow that its looking to be one of those "game-time" decisions as to where it will fall. Fun stuff to watch.
This system is a bust...NWS forecasters favor the northern track through Michigan which means it will probably rain long enough to significantly reduce snow totals.
Yes, I am also starting to feel that this system will not produce a lot of snow for Lake Orion. I'll wait for one more set of model runs and then post something later tonight. But it's on life support right now.
I'd like to get your early thoughts on two possible "cold days" on Tuesday and Wednesday on next week, seeing as the lows will be around 8 degrees, with wind chills well into the negative range.
I know you stopped predicting cold days a couple years ago, but I'd just like hear a quick analysis of that.
I'll get to that when it's Tuesday/Wednesday, lol
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