Surprise Snow Day? Maybe...

Well, good news. Chances of a snow day, while still low, are better than I thought they would be. More snow than expected will move into the region overnight, with up to 3" of accumulation possible by tomorrow morning. Also, roads will freeze over tonight. Combine this with the snow, and back roads will be very bad tomorrow morning. It would seem to be a good setup for a snow day, but keep in mind that these scenarios in which roads freeze over, while promising, never really seem to produce actual snow days. So, while my official prediction is that there won't be a snow day tomorrow, the potential is definitely still there, and better than it was this morning.

It's snowing here already, which means the changeover has occurred over 90 minutes earlier than expected. Great for accumulations, great for snow day chances, but my gut instinct still tells me we'll be in school tomorrow.

For my official snow map on this winter storm, which started last night and will end tomorrow morning, see a few posts below.

Snow Day

Well, we're not getting any ice tonight so we obviously won't get a snow day tomorrow. Just thought I'd put that out there, as there was some hype about a potential snow day at school today.

Complex Storm System

As of right now, I do not expect Lake Orion to get a snow day tomorrow. Icing potential is less than what it was this morning, which will greatly reduce our chances for a snow day tomorrow and Wednesday. Since there likely won't be significant icing, we will be left with a mixed bag of precipitation tonight through Wednesday Morning. Precipitation will likely start as snow tonight, then mix in with rain tomorrow (drastically limiting accumulations) before changing back over to snow tomorrow night. Simply put, without any freezing rain, we will not have enough snow for a snow day.

Here is my snow map for Southeast Michigan:

The next storm will be a nightmare to forecast

A low pressure system is going to move from the Texas Panhandle to Lake Erie by Wednesday Morning. This system will be strong enough to pull up a large amount of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is that the warm air will give this system a lot of moisture to work with, but that bad thing is that the warm air will likely warm temperatures enough so that at least some of our precipitation will likely fall as rain. Expect precipitation from this system to start as snow tomorrow afternoon and continue overnight. Tuesday Morning's commute will be horrible, as there will likely be around 3" of snow on the ground already and snow will likely still be falling. The main question with this storm is what will happen during the day on Tuesday. Depending on where the storm tracks, we could get a lot of snow, a lot of ice, or a lot of rain. Right now, it is looking like we will get a lot of rain. Then as the storm moves away, we will likely get a few more inches of wraparound snow Wednesday Morning.

As of right now, I will put a LOW snow day alert out for Wednesday and Thursday, due to the fact that we may yet get ice or snow as opposed to rain on Tuesday, and also due to the fact that even if we do get rain, it will all freeze over on Wednesday. This forecast is highly subject to change, as this system has been a nightmare to forecast so far and I can't see that changing. Although I would usually put out a snow map by now, there is enough uncertainty that I will hold off on doing so until this afternoon or tomorrow morning.

Light Snow Today

There's nothing much to say about the snow that will fall today. A weak area of low pressure will move to our north, triggering light snow across all of SE Michigan. There's no need for a snowfall map with this event, as all areas in SE Michigan should see 1-3" of snow. Here in Lake Orion, we'll probably be leaning towards 3" as opposed to 1". The only story with this event is that strong southwest winds during the day will lead to the blowing and drifting of snow. After the snow ends this afternoon, there will be a brief lull in winds, before they shift to the northwest tonight as a reinforcing shot of cold air comes down from the northwest. These strong northwest winds will likely blow the snow around some more. But all in all, this is the type of event we see many times every season, so it should be no big deal. What is worth making a big deal about is a strong system moving in mid-week. Depending on the track of this system, we could get a snowstorm, an ice storm, or yes, unfortunately, even a rain storm. I'll post about that system starting tomorrow.

Total Snowfall at my House:
9:00 a.m. - 0.3"
10:00 a.m. - 0.8"
11:00 a.m. - 1.1"
12:30 p.m. - 1.4"
2:30 p.m. - 1.8"
5:30 p.m. - 2.6"
7:30 p.m. - 2.9"

A Quick Burst Of Snow Tonight

A cold front will move through late this afternoon, and there will be precipitation along this cold front. Since temperatures will likely get into the upper 30's today, the precipitation will likely start off as rain or a wintry mix, but it will change to snow behind the cold front. We won't get a lot of snow with this event, but the snowfall rates will likely be impressive. There will likely be a brief period of near-whiteout to whiteout conditions tonight, as the snowfall will be very heavy at times and there will be a southwest wind during this event helping to blow the snow around a little bit. Lake Orion will likely pick up a quick 1-3" of snow with this event this evening. Not enough for a snow day, obviously, but if rain is the precipitation type at the start of this event, expect back roads to be icy tomorrow morning if they aren't icy already (mine are already icy).

Snowfall Map:

Not Good

Well, that really couldn't have been a bigger bust for the first "major" winter storm if I tried. I'll be frank about this one. I (along with other meteorologists in Detroit) made one big mistake. I overestimated the amount of snow that would fall overnight. Here in Lake Orion, we'll still end up with about 6", but about 2" of that will fall during the day today, when it doesn't have any effect on school being in session. And another mistake was that I underestimated the strength of the dry slot. We only got 0.4" of snow overnight, for a total of 3.9", which obviously isn't enough for a snow day. Basically, the dry air prevented any substantial snow amounts from falling last night, which killed our chances for a snow day. This isn't even one of those days where I can say that the school district should have called school. If you're looking for someone to blame for this bust of a snow day, blame me.