Busy Week Coming Up

Alright, lots of things to talk about. So, here we go.

Let's start with the system today. Forecast model guidance and radar trends support that this system is going to be slower, and will bring more snowfall to our area than it was through to bring at this time yesterday. It seems like we have about an inch of snow already on the ground from yesterday. Later today, an area of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall will move in from the Chicago area. I would expect 3-6 more inches from this area of snow, for a storm total of 4-7" in our area. Unfortunately, this storm happened about a day to soon for us to get any chance of a snow day from it.

Next up is a system that will quickly move through the area on Monday Night. The main story with this system is that this is the one that will bring the first shot of bitterly cold air to our area. Still though, it will produce some snow. Temperatures will already be cold when this system moves through so expect high snow-to-water ratios. Snow to water ratios are a measure of how many inches of snow one would get from one inch of rain falling. The normal snow to water ratio is about 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain; for this system, we're expecting about 20 inches of snow for every inch of rain. For this system, we're expecting the equivalent of 0.1-0.2" of rain to fall as snow. High snow-to-water ratios support a fluffy, powdery type of snow, so expect about 2-4" of easy to shovel snow. Travel will be difficult on Tuesday Morning because of this.

The third system will move through on Wednesday Night. There is still some uncertainty with the track of this system. The current track I am leaning towards is through Southern Ohio. This would be too far south for us to get any significant accumulation. However, some forecast models have shown this system moving through Northern Ohio. If this occurs, we could potentially get up to 6" of powdery snow due to the extremely cold temperatures allowing for very high snow-to-water ratios.

The real story though, in my opinion, is the bitter cold snap we will get for several days next week. Starting Tuesday and ending around Saturday, temperatures in this cold snap will struggle to get out of the single digits during the day, and will fall well below 0 overnight. We could certainly see lows of around -10F for at least one night during this cold snap. Expect a high chance for several "cold days" with this cold snap, either due to the buses not starting or due to the fact that any winds would send wind chills plunging into dangerous territory.

Here's a sample of wind chills for when temperatures are at 0F and -5F.

Wind chills when temperatures are at 0 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = 0F
5 mph = -11F
10mph = -16F
15mph = -19F

Wind chills when temperatures are at -5 degrees Fahrenheit:
0 mph = -5F
5 mph = -16F
10 mph = -22F
15 mph = -26F

For the whole table, the site is http://www.weather.gov/os/windchill/index.shtml.

Bottom Line: If the forecasted low temperatures actually verify, I would not be surprised to see cold days called every day from Wednesday on next week.