Discussion

The amount of snow we get from this storm system tonight will ultimately depend on where the storm tracks. The further west it tracks, the more snow we will get. So, the question is, how can we determine where the storm is most likely to track, and how much snow will we get from it as a result?

Current forecasted tracks have the low pressure system tracking from Eastern Kentucky to Central Pennsylvania before it moves in a more easterly direction away from us. I tend to believe that the forecast models still haven't moved this track quite far enough to the west, and will base my snowfall maps off of a track approximately from Eastern Kentucky to Pittsburgh before it takes a more easterly turn. If my forecasted track is correct, it will result in a sharp snowfall gradient across SE Michigan, ranging from 5-9" and almost certain snowdays over far southeastern Michigan, to no snow in the Saginaw area.


However, there are two more possibilities. One is that the current forecasted track being used by the NWS and most news stations is correct. If this is correct, we can expect 2-5" of snow, with far southeastern Michigan getting 4-7" of snow. Another, more intriguing, possiblity is that the storm waits for a longer period of time to make its more easterly turn, resulting in higher snowfall amounts for our area.

However, no matter how long the storm takes to move out of our area, it really won't have that much of an effect on our snow totals by tomorrow morning. Even if the storm takes the further west track, and we end up with more accumulation than expected, we will still only have 2-4" on the ground by tomorrow morning. And honestly, I don't think 2-4" of snow with an unknown additional will cut it for a snow day, even with snow continuing to fall during the morning commute tomorrow.


So, therefore, my prediction is that we will not have a snow day tomorrow. Be prepared to leave early for school if you plan on driving there though, as there will likely be backups on the way to school tomorrow morning, even though we will not be driving at the heart of the morning commute (because it's late start).


Snowfall Map (as you can see, extremely high bust potential from this storm):