Alright so I've decided to start back up with the once per day posting unless there is absolutely nothing going on weatherwise in the next week.
First, let's quickly go over the storm that will affect us for the next few days. Precipitation will likely start as freezing rain early Christmas Morning, because the air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is warm, but the air at ground level is below freezing. Once the ground temperature goes above freezing, precipitation will turn to rain. Before this happens, we should probably get around a tenth of an inch of ice, which will make the roads fairly slick for anyone traveling early on Christmas Morning
Christmas Day will be a rainy mess, but once the ice melts nothing bad as far as roads are concerned. One could make a case for the weather on Christmas Day being a fitting symbol for our winter so far...
Eventually, the low pressure system causing all of this weather will meander around Iowa for a day and then head northeast through Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Cold air will rush in and cause occasional snow showers during this time.
Looking at the long range, it appears we will be setting into a pattern of cold air. However, this cold air most likely will work to keep storm tracks suppressed to the south. Obviously this could change because it is the long range, but it appears that we will likely have at least a week or two more of boring weather.
Average snowfall for the Lake Orion area should be around 18" through December 31st. I would be surprised if we got 10" through December 31st. (We're currently sitting at 7.5")
Eventually, I feel that we will get a big snowstorm (8+" at once) at some point this winter. This is Michigan after all, and the storm track so far this winter has been about as unfavorable as possible for our area.
That's it for tonight's post, I'll have another post tomorrow evening.
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4 comments:
The skew-t soundings for Detroit show a few hours of freezing precipitation for Christmas morning. It is sad that's all we're going to get considering what is happening in the plains from Texas north to Canada. We will get our turn...maybe another storm like our area got in January of 1999.
Oh yeah January 99 I think was the one that gave us 4 snow days or maybe it was December 00. One of those two...
But yeah we will get a few hours of freezing rain -- enough to make the roads kind of messy. That's it though for freezing precip.
So, the Law of Averages would indicate that we are due for a big storm sometime soon, right? Right? I mean, we haven't gotten anything interesting yet.
Well obviously weather patterns based on El Nino/La Nina play a big role; right now we're in an El Nino winter which isn't favorable, two years ago when we had 7 snow day we were in a La Nina winter which is favorable.
However, the weather is so complex that law of averages does factor in. So yes I think we'll be "due" for a big storm at some point this winter.
Also another thing to consider is that the influence of El Nino will wane as winter goes on, possibly resulting in a more active 2nd half of winter. The Detroit/Pontiac National Weather Service winter outlook reflects this; saying that February/March have a good chance to be above average snow wise. Usually Detroit/Pontiac does well with their winter forecasts, so I'd put some stock in that.
Here's a link to their outlook:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/climate/winterOutlook0910.pdf
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