Tinkering With My Forecast & First Snowfall Map

Since my post yesterday morning, the forecast models have stayed remarkably consistent with this storm. Therefore, I will make only minor changes with my storm track. I'll adjust the track only the slightest bit northward, going from Oklahoma to St. Louis to just south of Chicago and into the Saginaw Bay.



However, despite the consistent track, it will not be until the last minute that anyone will be certain about the effects of this storm, due to the fact that we will be so close to the rain/snow line. I do know for sure that we will receive rain from this storm for an extended period of time. What I do not know is exactly when the snow will change over to rain tomorrow night, which will have adverse effects on our accumulation totals with the first band of snow tomorrow night. Right now, I believe that the snow will start a little earlier than previously expected, around 9:00 p.m. I believe we will have a good 3-5 hours of snowfall before the precipitation changes over to rain. This is a little less time than previously expected; therefore, I will put accumulations down to 1-3" inches. The National Weather Service currently has us forecast for only 1" of snow tomorrow night; however, I feel we'll see light/moderate snow for at least 3 hours, which I believe is enough time to pick up more than an inch of snow. Therefore, the high end of my accumulation is more than their accumulation forecast.

To our south, the snow will change over to rain rather quickly, therefore, locations to the south will receive less snow. To our north, precipitation will stay as snow longer; in fact, the Tri-Cities area could stay as all snow for the entire storm. Therefore, locations to our north will receive more snow.

Here's my snow map for the time period 8:00 p.m. Tuesday - 8:00 a.m. Wednesday. Please note that north and west of Saginaw could see some more snow during the day on Wednesday, and everyone will see more snow Wednesday Night. I'll have my snow map for the entire storm out tomorrow night.



Beyond the minor change up in the initial band of snow, I still expect the rest of the storm to play out the same as what I said yesterday morning. So, if you're looking for the forecast for Wednesday, scroll down to the last post.

Snow Day Chances:

Wednesday: I'd put this at an "E" except for the fact that there is a small possibility for ice early Wednesday Morning. If ice occurs, it would be because a high pressure system to our northeast could produce easterly winds bringing in cold air. If this happens, it is conceivable that the warm Gulf of Mexico air that the strong low pressure is bringing up could "overrun" the cold air and the rain could freeze as it hits the ground, producing (obviously) freezing rain. However, this is a small possibility in the first place and even if ice occurred, its effects would likely be mitigated by the snow already on the ground. Still, I'll just leave the grade at a "D" for Wednesday just to be safe. It's a low "D" though.

Thursday: This is a better chance than Wednesday. 40-50 mph winds will move cold air in really quickly, potentially causing a "flash freeze" as temperatures drop 5-10 degrees per hour, quickly freezing over the rain that will have fallen on Wednesday. Not only that, but the 40-50 mph winds will also give us a good setup for lake effect snow. When snow does occur, near whiteout conditions will result, due to the 40-50 mph winds. Lastly, the winds could cause some power outages. However, I've gotten burned predicting snow days before with conditions like these, and therefore I'm extremely hesitant to move the snow day grade above a "D". It's a high "D" though.