No big update here, but I just wanted to say that looking at the newest forecast models, snow accumulations will definitely be adjusted upwards in my evening update. I may change this, but for now, I'm thinking 4-7" for our area. Snow day grade will probably be going up as well.
Stay tuned. Next full update around 8:30 p.m. tonight.
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NAM looks good. Other models I am not so sure about. Plus NWS discussions seem to suggest the 3-4 inches unless you're near the Ohio border. So I am interesting to see why you think the predicted amounts should go up from 3-5. I am only a rookie forecaster so maybe I am missing something!
Basically I just put up the upgrade in accumulations about an hour before the National Weather Service did the same.
NWS Detroit is now saying 3-5".
NWS Grand Rapids is now saying 4-6" with locally higher amounts.
I tend to like 4-6" with isolated 7" for us because we are in the "hills" here in Lake Orion (1000 feet above sea level) and these long-lived snowfall events always seem to overproduce for us.
Yea, now I see that the time you posted your new blog was before when the 12Z models are made available. The Grand Rapids office has given an advisory for 4-6 inches, so Detroit's office should do the same soon. They seem to be slow lately. This is turning out to be an interesting storm...especially if the NAMs aggressive forecast turns out.
We should be under a high-end WWA tomorrow morning. Should be under one now, but it doesn't really matter I guess.
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