I feel almost everyone in SE Michigan will have school tomorrow, except for the districts in rural areas...particularly in the Thumb as they were the jackpot winners with totals from 12-14". I do have to say that I overforecasted almost everyone by a couple of inches. Yes almost everyone got 2 snow days but I am still disappointed in my forecast as almost anyone could have called those snow days. The main thing I was looking for was for my map to verify, and it largely did not. I personally feel I only deserve about a C- grade for this forecast, and I will certainly look to do better next time. Hopefully I don't lose any followers due to this, but I understand if you are disappointed.
Feel free to leave questions & comments below.
I'm currently preoccupied but will make sure to upload the actual snowfall map compared to my map with a breakdown of where I predicted correctly and where I busted badly later.
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Discussing 2010-11 Snow Day Chances in Lake Orion.
Somewhat Important Note:
Due to the popularity of the blog, I receive numerous Facebook requests before potential snowstorms. Although I am flattered that you want to follow me on Facebook, I would ask that you not friend request me unless you know me in real life. It's nothing personal, I've just decided I don't want too many friends on Facebook.
Thanks, John
Thanks, John
23 comments:
Don't be so hard on yourself! You did great! You told us about the storm long before the news stations and that alone calls for a higher grade! And, honestly what is the difference between 10, 12, or even 14 inches? It is a lot of snow and you called it! Please don't be discouraged. We need your forecasts! Any new snow storms coming our way?
I thought that it was excellent!!! I enjoyed your video, it was very detailed and professional. I just heard about you this year but a lot of people know about your forecasts. You have a very good reputation in this town. JH
Thank you so much for this weather update service! Ever since our modern tech teacher showed us this webpage to teach us about blogs the whole school has been actively talking about you're forecasts. It's a great help not only to get specific forecasts for Lake Orion, but also the chance of having a snowday and the science behind it. So from all of us, Thank you!
I think you followed the models well, it was the computer models that failed. Great job!! Keep it up!!
Don't worry about it. What most people cared about were the snow days, and you were right on with your predictions.
I was a bit disappointed myself with the relatively low amount of snow Lake Orion received (around 8" at my house), but weather is a tricky business. You're learning, and everyone can see that you've got a sunny future in meteorology.
No history was made these last few days, but I'm sure global warming's gotta have something good cooking for next year.
Hi, just wondering what your thoughts are on this storm coming Sunday night into Monday? Local weather guy said 2-5". Does that sound about right?
Hi, just wondering what your thoughts are on this storm coming Sunday night into Monday. Local weather guy said 2-5" for mid Michigan. Does that sound about right to you?
Thanks.
I don't believe that you have anything to apologize for. I would say that just about the only hope we have for getting school called off tomorrow would be if the winds pick up and wind chills are the -10 or below that are being predicted as possible.
You are awesome, keep up your great work!!!
-A well rested Rochester teacher. :)
Don't be so hard on yourself. You know more than anyone that even though a forecaster aims to get every forecast correct, it will never happen. You did just fine. You informed your followers that a big storm was coming, when it was coming, and what to expect. The reasons why we received lower totals were very difficult to forecast and is closer to nowcasting, which is difficult to do in Oklahoma. Keep up the good work.
Hi John,
Thanks for all of your work over the past few days. Your videos were very interesting and entertaining! I look forward to following more posts in the future.
Sincerely,
Susan (Kruger) Woodcock (As you might guess..."Mr. Woodcock's wife")
What do you grade it now
John,
You have an amazing talent in this area, please do not be discouraged! It is called forecasting and prediction because you are dealing with forces of nature than cannot ever be foreseen with 100% accuracy. Your updates enabled me to be better prepared (like stop at the grocery store and make sure to have milk and bread for the family) and for that I sincerely thank you.
Keep up the good work, all of us back here in the LO appreciate it.
I have to agree with everyone else here. You did an excellent job with this storm regardless of the fact we didn't get as you predicted. I'm sure everyone reading realizes that 1. You are a Freshman in college not a "professional" 2. are living far from the area you are predicting for and 3. are doing this, spending all this time and energy, for us. Never once have I every expected 100% accuracy; is that even possible with the weather? Personally, I would grade you at an A+ for the forecast because you notified us of the storm well in advance of any news channel, you were detailed, professional, and updated us as needed. How much more could we ask for??? You are the best and I will always believe your preditions over that of our local weather people and I will follow your blog for as long as you make it available to us! Thank you, for all your hard work and dedication to us!!!
I think you did a great job! We live in Clarkston and when it was said and done, I measured about 10.8". I am a trained NWS spotter. We definitely would have had more except there was a period of time between 2-4:30am that we received quite a bit of sleet. And then there was the dry slot that came through and snow stopped for a little while. Even the guys on TV were a little shocked by that dry slot that passed through. Forecasting weather is like playing the stock market, its an educated gamble. Don't get down on yourself, it is weather and it is Michigan! Keep up the good work.
-John
Clarkston, MI
John quit being so hard on yourself D: Let's see, you predicted around an everage of 12 inches in most areas and were about 2 inches off... a 10/12 is a B, which is really good :D I know I'm gonna keep following you
Any thought of if it will snow sunday/monday and if so how much...Thanks!
Awesome job John. Even though we didn't get as much as we thought - you're still 100% credible in my books. Thanks for all you've done the past 3 years; we all appreciate it.
John -
I think you did an excellent job with your blog and predicting what the storm was going to do. Keep the blog coming, I know I will be following it for as long as you have it. We appreciate your taking the time to forecast for us here in SE Michigan. You make us proud!
I believe you did great! Besides the fact that you are in oaklahoma and not Michigan, you also have school going on that is your first priority. It's great that you continue this for us even when you are hard at work at OU. Good job and thank you.
You do a much better job than most of the guys on TV. I look to you before I check the news and will continue to do so. I have put your address on my FB and everyone thinks you do a fantastic job. Keep up the great work!
It looks like you're going to get the next snowstorm down there in Norman. 4-10 inches with 2-3 foot drifts. Enjoy.
What about the storm coming up Sunday night that could give us accumulating ice?!
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