First real discussion since January 29th!
Alright, so the origin of our storm is going to be a wave moving on to the shore of California. This wave will undergo surface low formation to the east of the Rocky Mountains, and from there its track will largely depend on how much it phases (joins together) with a piece of energy dropping out of Canada.
Strange as it sounds, we actually want this system to not phase very much with that piece of energy, even though it will mean a weaker system. This is because the more it phases, the further north it will travel, and if it travels too far to the north, we will get a changeover to rain on Wednesday.
Unfortunately, forecast model agreement right now points to the system phasing and tracking from Chicago to Saginaw on Wednesday. However, this would not mean that we would get all rain for the whole event. This system will pull up tons of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, so precipitation is going to start out well ahead of the low pressure system. Expect a burst of heavy snow Tuesday Night and into Wednesday Morning, with accumulations totaling anywhere from 2-6" depending on how quickly the changeover to rain occurs. And if the low pressure system does track through Lower Michigan, the changeover to rain almost certainly will occur for most of the day on Wednesday, as the low pressure system pulls up warm air out ahead of it and as surface temperatures undergo their natural warming from daytime heating. Then, as the low moves away Wednesday Night, expect the precipitation to once again change over to snow, with perhaps another 1-3" of snow accumulating.
However, not all hope is lost for snow days from this storm. Far from it, in fact. This is a very complex storm to forecast, as we will be very close to the rain/snow line. Therefore, if the storm tracks further south than currently forecast, we could receive all snow through the whole event. And if that happens, upwards of a foot of snow is certainly attainable. And even if the current forecasted track with a changeover to rain happens, look at the potential snow totals. We could have 6" of snow on the ground by Wednesday Morning, or a little less than that with heavy snow still falling. That's definitely a possible snow day. And then we have the probability that roads will just be a complete mess Thursday with the snow to rain back to snow scenario.
As long as the storm doesn't go way north (I'm talking something like from Milwaukee to Alpena), there is a good potential for at least one snowday with it.
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3 comments:
It seems that it is almost a certain to get a snowday if heavy snow falls during the morning rush.
Even though it is a Wednesday, which means a late start, the staff and other schools would be stuck in the mess.
If they close the elementary's and Middle School's they have to close the high school as well-- right? Regardless of start time?
RIGHT? D:
"If they close the elementary's and Middle School's they have to close the high school as well-- right? Regardless of start time?
RIGHT? D:"
I'm not completely sure, but I don't think they have to. Reason being, remember late last year when we had that massive squall line move through? Some schools in the Lake Orion district got closed for days because of power outages, yet we at LOHS didn't miss a day of school b/c the high school didn't lose power. However, there may be different rules for snow days. In any case, I highly doubt (like 99% sure) that a 2 hour difference in start times would lead to the high school being open while other schools close.
Oh, and as an aside, I believe all elementary schools have the day off on Wednesday. But that doesn't affect anything, because I can recall at least one occasion where every school but Carpenter (year-round school) had a normal break, and Carpenter still got a break in the form ice day when Lake Orion got a small ice event.
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