There appear to be two possibilities of what could result from the complex storm system that will affect us from tomorrow morning until Thursday morning.
First of all, let's run down what is set in stone.
Firstly, a nice burst of snow should occur very early tomorrow morning, perhaps stretching into rush hour tomorrow. This burst of snow will likely produce 1-3" accumulations.
Then, a dry slot will cause this precipitation to cease. This is a good thing though, as temperatures will warm up above freezing during the day tomorrow.
A final round of snow will occur tomorrow night through Thursday morning, producing another 1-3" of snow.
One possibility has this as the only precipitation, with 2-6" of snow accumulating.
However, some forecast models show a nice, heavy band of precipitation could set up tomorrow afternoon. Wherever this band sets up, precipitation would likely fall as all snow despite surface temperatures being above freezing. The snow would likely fall hard enough to accumulate on the ground despite temperatures being above freezing. Despite low snow-to-water ratios, snowfall rates could easily reach 2" per hour where this band sets up. Accumulations of 3-5" are definitely possible wherever this band sets up, if it sets up. Therefore, if the band sets up over us, accumulations would have to be bumped up to 5-11".
My gut feel tells me that a band of snow will set up tomorrow, and we'll be in it somewhere. This seems like too dynamic of a storm for a band not to set up, and we seem to be in a decent spot to feel the effects of the band if it sets up.
Either way, we're not getting a snow day tomorrow from this storm. If the band sets up over us, we could get a snow day Thursday, but if the band doesn't set up over us or doesn't form at all, we almost certainly wouldn't get a snow day on Thursday.
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6 comments:
I'd rather have the snowday on thursday than on a late start day.
Wait a minute. Isn't tomorrow Thursday?
Question. What website do you use to create your forecast? It sounds like you're able to view a few computer models of storm possibilities.
Here's some sites to look at computer models:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
http://wintercast.tripod.com/id13.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html
The most accurate model is probably the ECMWF, found near the bottom of the second link. Unfortunately, the free images only show what is happening every 24 hours, and it is impossible to figure out how much precipitation is expected to fall. Very good for determining low placement though.
Another decent model is the GFS, which is found on the first link. This one is really nice because it is freely available, and images show what is happening every 6 hours. Also, you can see how much precipitation is going to fall for free.
There's also the UKMET, which can be found on the third link. Another decent model.
The GGEM is found using the fourth link. Not as accurate as the other three, but still okay.
Then on the first link you can find the NAM, NMM, and ARW models. Decent for short range forecasts, but pretty inaccurate outside of 48 hours.
There's other models too, but most of them besides the ones listed are pretty inaccurate.
And of course, the further away the storm is, the less accurate the models are. Anything beyond 12 hours can change, anything beyond 48 hours can change pretty significantly, and anything beyond 180 hours is pretty much useless.
Thanks for the links. One more question. I know you're doing this site for snow days, but do you plan on using this page to do severe weather forecasts in the summer? Thanks again.
"Thanks for the links. One more question. I know you're doing this site for snow days, but do you plan on using this page to do severe weather forecasts in the summer? Thanks again."
Possibly. In my opinion, severe weather is more fun to track and forecast but it doesn't get as many people interested as snow days do. Even so, I'll probably keep it up anyways.
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