Update...

The general effects of this storm are still expected to be similar to what they were yesterday. The storm track has moved a little further south from yesterday; it is now expected to track from just south of Chicago to Detroit. However, temperatures are still expected to warm up enough for a changeover to rain on Wednesday.

The burst of heavy snow is still expected to occur out ahead of this storm, with anywhere between 2-6" of snow accumulating depending on how early this first wave of snow gets going. Once it starts to get going, snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are expected. The most probable time for this snow to occur is between midnight and 6 a.m. Wednesday morning.

After that initial burst of snow, expect a dry slot to move in for much of the day on Wednesday. Although dry slots usually kill snow totals, in this case the dry slot will be our saving grace, as much of the precipitation that would fall on Wednesday would be rain anyways, as temperatures warm into the upper 30's. Do expect some rain to fall, but it will be light.

Then, as the low deepens and lifts to our northeast, it will pull in an arctic airmass. Winds will become strong out of the west as the cold front moves through, and temperatures will quickly drop below freezing Wednesday evening. Best of all, there will be a second burst of heavy snow behind this front. Right now, it looks like 2-4" of snow will fall, and this snow will be blown around by the gusty winds. Also, some forecast models are showing a nice band of heavy snowfall setting up somewhere in Southern Lower Michigan. If this band does develop, someone will be looking at 6+" of snow Wednesday Night.

As you can see, by adding up my totals you get a forecast of 4-10" of accumulation for our area. However, I must point out that only a few preferred spots (in the heaviest snow bands) will get 6+" of snow will the current forecasted storm track. Also, not all of the snow will accumulate on the ground, as temperatures will be close to freezing for much of the event. It is much more likely that we will see 4-5" of snow from this event.

However, the potential is still there for us to get a heavy band of snow sometime during this event. If we do, snow day chances greatly increase.

Finally, it is still possible that the surface low could track further south than is currently forecast. Once again, if this happens, snowfall totals and snow day chances will greatly increase.

The bottom line is that currently snow day chances look pretty unlikely for Wednesday and Thursday. However, it would only take a small change for snow day chances to increase.