Meh...

As has been the trend all winter, the models have backed off from showing anything major happening to our area from a storm once it gets within the 5-6 day period.

Right now, IMO, besides the model analysis the main point of my discussion from yesterday stands, which is that there are still a wide variety of scenarios that can occur from this storm:

(1) No phasing, with the main storm being supressed well to the south.
(2) A partial phase, with the main storm going up the East coast but some moisture being thrown back towards us, resulting in minor accumulations.
(4) A primary low pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley, and energy being transferred to a secondary low pressure system which would either track up the East Coast or out to sea.
(5) The main storm goes up the East Coast or out to sea, but we get some decent accumulation with a clipper system that moves through our area.

As it stands right now, the only one I would remove from the picture is #3, which unfortunately was the best scenario for our area. It still seems as though we could get an okay snow event this weekend, but it won't be anything too major.

I'll have a new, more detailed post tomorrow night...