Snow Day Likely Monday, Possibly Another One Tuesday

I am glad to say that we now have a good amount of consistency with the models for the storm that will affect us during the entire day on Monday. It is looking good for 5-9" of snow to fall on Monday, with a good chance of a snow day on Monday & another chance for a snow day on Tuesday.

Let's look at some forecast models...

12z NAM looks good for a general 5-9" of snow across SE Michigan, with no precipitation type issues.

12z GFS, similar to the NAM.

12z GGEM, similar to the NAM & GFS for precipitation amounts but we could have a mixing issue as temperatures get above freezing for a bit.

12z ECMWF still has a general 5-9" of snow across SE Michigan, but the heaviest falls to the west.

Considering all this, I am going to make the most boring snowfall map ever. When taking into consideration all of the 12z models, it appears that a little more precipitation may fall in the far SE part of the state, but that they may have a little bit of an issue with the snow turning into sleet in the middle of the event. I will split the difference and just paint a general 5-9" of snow across the entire forecast area.

Currently, the timeframe of the storm is speeding up. I would now expect snow to begin falling at around 2 a.m. Monday Morning, with the heaviest snow falling during the day on Monday, before ending late Monday Evening. Considering this, I think a snow day now looks likely on Monday, and as such, I will raise the snow day grade to a "B" (snow day likely, but not a lock yet). Depending on how much snow falls and how quickly the storm ends, I could see another snow day occuring on Tuesday. However, there is a large difference between a 5" snowstorm that ends late Monday Evening, and a 9" snowstorm that ends late Monday Evening. Due to this, I will keep the snow day grade for Tuesday at a "C" (50/50, could break either way). If we end up getting in the upper range of my accumulation prediction, I could definitely see us getting 2 snow days.

Either way, a snow day looks likely Monday, as moderate/heavy snow will likely be falling by the time we have to go to school. Then, 3-6" of snow will probably be on the ground by the time school gets out Monday Afternoon, making the commute home a nightmare either way. Based on past trends, there is no reason to believe our school will be hesitant to call a snow day on Monday simply because there won't be a lot of snow on the ground by Monday Morning.

Bottom Line: 5-9" of snow, snow day likely Monday, snow day possible Tuesday.