All of the forecast models are in good agreement, so I will simply show the NAM and GFS, as they have the most detailed images.
NAM:
This image of the NAM shows moderate-heavy snowfall affecting SE Michigan between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. tomorrow.
This image of the NAM shows a simulated radar image of the snow that will be affecting us tomorrow morning.
This image of the NAM shows storm total precipitation. This would give us around 7" of snow.
GFS:
This image of the GFS shows moderate-heavy snowfall affecting SE Michigan between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. tomorrow.
This image of the GFS shows storm total precipitation. This would give us around 7" of snow.
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Snowfall Map:
The forecast models have been very consistent in showing the most precipitation falling in far SE Michigan. However, it now appears likely that the snow will mix with sleet in the early morning tomorrow near the Ohio Border. This will offset the higher precipitation amounts. In addition, there will be a lower snow-to-water ratio, which will also cut down on accumulations. Due to this, I will go with 5-7" for areas near the Ohio Border.
The most snow will likely fall between the I-94 and I-69 corridors. Here, lots of precipitation will still fall, but the snow will not mix with sleet tomorrow morning. Due to this, I will go with 6-8" for this area.
To the north of the I-69 corridor, precipitation amounts will start to taper off. Due to this, I will go with 5-7", and in the far northern counties, 4-6".
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Impacts From This Storm:
As you can see from the above radar image, this storm is on our doorstep. Snow will begin falling around midnight tonight, and increase in intensity as the night goes on. I would expect around 2" of snow to be on the ground by 6 a.m. tomorrow. The snow will be at its heaviest during the rush hour tomorrow morning, making for a very messy, slow, and dangerous commute. In fact, there could be some isolated instances of thundersnow tomorrow, if any convective bands of snow could form. In the heaviest bands of snow, snow could fall at a 1"/hour rate. Another 4-6" of snow will fall during the day tomorrow. After noontime tomorrow, the snow will gradually diminish in intensity, before stopping completely during the late afternoon hours tomorrow. However, I would expect that the roads would still be in poor shape for the evening commute tomorrow. By Tuesday Morning, the roads will probably be in better shape, as temperatures will be warm enough for road salt to be effective.
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Snow Day Prediction:
Monday: A good analog to this storm would be the 12/19/08 storm from last winter. Snow did not start falling until 5 a.m. in that storm, but it got very heavy very quickly, resulting in dangerous morning and evening commutes. Our school closed then, and I would expect it to close now. Despite only minor accumulations by rush hour tomorrow morning, moderate-heavy snow will be falling, making for a treacherous commute. In addition, 4-6 more inches of snow will fall during the day, which will not get cleared off of many roads. This would result in long bus delays on the ride home from school. Due to these factors, I am predicting that we will not have school tomorrow.
Tuesday: I would expect the storm to more or less end at around 5 p.m. tomorrow, giving the road crews around 12 hours to clear the roads. As I mentioned above, road salt will be effective in this situation, and it's not going to be an extremely large amount of snow to deal with. Therefore, I expect many of the roads to be cleared by Tuesday Morning, and will therefore lower the snow day grade for Tuesday to a "D" (small chance of a snow day, but not completely impossible).
12 comments:
so are you giving it an A or a B?
90% chance, there will be heavy snow falling during rush hour tomorrow morning
I agree but i still think were gonna have school tomorrow. With only 2 inchs on the ground by the start of school, i doubt they would cancel it. I think our best bet would be school closing early(after lunch)at best.
Have they ever closed school early before due to snow accumulations?
I doubt that closing school early would ever cross their minds unless it was something like they got on the east cost a few weeks back.
It's Michigan; they know what's coming; they know that both commutes will be dangerous. True, two inches isn't a ton of snow, but everything is definitely more hazardous when there's a couple of inches on the ground AND a ton still coming down.
Thundersnow would be cool. There is some decent upward vertical motion indicated for part of tomorrow, so there looks to be a chance.
^^^^
But when we got that huge storm the friday before christmas break '08, there was only a couple inches on the ground as well with the EXPECTATION of more snow later on, which caused a snow day.
Same situation here.
C'mon snowday. I'm doing my snowdance as I type.
The purpose of calling school off early, is to get everyone home before the roads get to bad, in the anticipation of excessive snowfall. The only Time LOHS has been let out early was due to power outage. If they let LOHS out early because of snow, the rest of the district would get out. and they cant do that becasue of conflicting parent work scheduals with the younger students. im gonna go with john on this one, and just say that if anything, they will cancel school all together.
Keep in mind though the person who called that snow day in 08 is no longer the person who calls the snow days anymore.
Well, the dance seems to have worked. I've also come to the conclusion that the only rational way of "bringing on" a snowday is by doing rhe dance. It's almost mandatory.
No school. Gj John.
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