I still like my map from last night, only change I will make is to increase high end accumulations between Bay City and I-69 from 7" to 8". This is because (a) forecast models last night came in a little wetter for some of that area (b) lake enhancement from Lake Huron could increase totals by 1-2" in the lakeshore counties from what they would otherwise be. Therefore I feel it's prudent to put in an area of 4-8". Other than that, everything seems to be on track with the storm. The National Weather Service moved an inch closer to my predictions, but one of us still has to be wrong, especially south of Detroit where they have 5-9" and I have 8-12". We'll see, I still think they're lowballing totals a little bit.
Here's my final map:
In addition, there's no point in waiting until tonight...so
I'll just predict right now that we will get a snow day tomorrow. I can't possibly see how we wouldn't, even if the lower totals forecasted by the National Weather Service are correct.
I'll have one or two new posts up tonight, first one probably between 6:00 and 7:00 p.m.
10 comments:
Does the fact that tomorrow is late start change that prediction at all? Will they have enough time to clear roads before 8 am?
Would the fact that tomorrow is late start change the chances of having a snow day in any way? Will they have enough time to clear the roads?
John,
You don't know how many people follow your blog over here at Scripps (especially the teachers). You are the only one we can trust!! I walked in today and told everybody, "John Schlenner says it's nearly 100% for tomorrow". Every teacher said that they won't set their alarm in the morning. Now granted, we as teachers don't want snow days because we'd rather be educating the youth of Lake Orion but ... we'll take it.
-Mr. Stalions
Fire up the snow blower?
Although tomorrow is count day? That's the only factor I can see affecting a snow day.
I'm a parent of LOHS kids, they showed me your site and I've been hooked ever since! I turn to you when I want to know "the truth" so, thanks for all your hard work, it really is a great Blog!
Thanks for the compliments guys. :)
No, late start doesn't change the prediction, because middle school still starts at 7:35 on Wednesdays and they don't just call snow days for some schools. And either way, the road commission is not getting anything cleared by tomorrow.
In addition, count day will not affect the decision, the state govt. already has plans for a make-up count day on Thursday w/ the expectation that many hundreds of schools will close tomorrow.
alright this is dumb. do we or dont we have a snow day. cause i dont want to check in the morning.
Yes, I think we do have a snow day tomorrow.
you should call up mr. gutman john lol
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