Good model agreement for the storm

It's late, and I'm too tired to post images, so I'll save that for tomorrow afternoon's post, but I will say that we have good model agreement for this storm now.

The NAM, GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF models all give us significant precipitation with this storm. Even the lesser models are in decent agreement with this now. So, at this time, I would say that there is no chance that this storm will miss us to the south. The main thing I think we would have to worry about this point is for some ice, sleet, or rain to mix in with the snow, but so far, only the GGEM has shown the potential for this to happen.

However, all in all, I have a pretty high confidence in a Winter Storm Warning event for our area. To stay on the safe side for now (due to potential issues such as dry slotting or mixing), I will call for 5-9" of snow with this storm. However, if we do not have precipitation type issues, accumulations will likely have to be adjusted upwards.

The bottom line is that barring another major shift to the northwest in the storm track, I would expect at least 5" of snow with this storm, and in all likelihood, I would think more than that would fall.

With regards to snow day chances, it's kind of unclear at this point. This will likely be a long duration snowstorm (18-24 hours) so I believe it is likely that we will get at least one snow day with this storm. Earlier today, I stated it was more likely that we would get Tuesday off with this storm, if we got a snow day. However, the starting time for this storm has sped up. The storm is now expected to start early Monday Morning, and finish late Monday Evening. With this timing, I am really kind of unsure as to which day we would be more likely to get a snow day.

For now, to split the difference, I will make the snow day grade for both Monday and Tuesday a "C", but I do believe that if everything stays the same with this storm, we will get at least one snow day, with an outside shot at two.

Again, it should be a fun few days tracking this storm. The next post will be up sometime tomorrow afternoon...