Much More Active Pattern Upcoming For SE Michigan

After a two week period of relatively quiet weather in SE Michigan, with no storms of over 2" occurring since January 12th, the weather pattern looks to get more active in the upcoming week. Up to three systems will affect the area over the next week, with each system packing a potentially bigger punch than the last. Let's look at these systems in order.

System One:

A weak system will drop out of Canada and track just to the north of Lake Orion tomorrow. This system will be enough to give all of SE Michigan a 1-2" snowfall tomorrow afternoon. Impacts will be fairly light, but I would expect a slower than usual afternoon/evening commute due to the snow that will be falling. Obviously there will not be a snow day from this storm, but it is still worth mentioning.

Expected Track of System One:

Snowfall Map for System One:

System Two:

A stronger piece of energy will drop out of Canada on Thursday Night and track to the south of the first piece of energy. This system will be weakening as it passes just to the south of the MI/OH border early Saturday Morning, but will still be stronger than the first system, which means dynamics will allow for a higher intensity snowfall than with the first system. At this time I am expecting about 3-4" of snowfall to fall over all of SE Michigan during a 15 hour period from around 11 p.m. Friday Night to around 2 p.m. Saturday Afternoon. Impacts from this system will be moderate, with travel likely being hazardous during the snow and until the road commission can get the snow cleared. Obviously there will not be a snow day from this storm, but it is still worth mentioning.

Expected Track of System Two:

Snowfall Map for System Two:

System Three:

This could be by far the best system out of the three, but is also the one with the most bust potential. Essentially, SE Michigan needs northern stream energy to combine with southern stream energy for a good snowstorm to happen. If this does not happen, then the system will go to the south again, which is essentially why SE Michigan has not seen any 5"+ snowstorms since 12/12/2010. At this time, I think that the pattern may be becoming more favorable for a phased system tracking through the Great Lakes, which could result in a snowstorm affecting you guys around next Tuesday Night. It's still way too early for this to be anything more than speculation, but the potential is definitely there.

Beyond these three systems, the pattern is definitely becoming more favorable for SE Michigan snowstorms, which potentially could result in a good February like the one we had last year, where we got two 7" snowstorms and two snow days. Stay tuned.