Musings

For the main post on this storm, scroll down below. This will just be me listing off some quick updates.

There has been slightly greater model agreement tonight, but in general forecasting this storm is still a nightmare, which is to be expected because we are still 4.5 days out from impact in SE Michigan, and this storm is going to be very strong...and those storms are always tough to forecast. With each new set of model runs, I become more convinced that SE Michigan will not see any ice or rain. This is a very good thing because this storm will deliver a crippling ice storm to many many areas, potentially including myself in Oklahoma. However, when the question turns to just how much snow you guys will see, that's where the nightmares start. The 00z GFS has Lake Orion getting about 3" of snow while the 00z ECMWF has Lake Orion getting about 21" of snow. And as ridiculous as it sounds to say this...4.5 days out I could easily see Lake Orion getting anywhere from 3" to 21" of snow. Both the GFS and ECMWF have completely realistic solutions, although I personally still favor a solution between the two. And yes, I did say that the ECMWF's solution with 21" of snow is realistic. This storm is strong enough and has a tremendous moisture feed that I do believe someone will get jackpot totals over over 18". Obviously we won't know whom that will be for a few days.

I personally think that SE Michigan has a good chance of getting a significant winter storm around next Wednesday. I am much more confident about this than I was earlier tonight. Stay tuned for updates.