Here is the actual accumulation map:
As you can see, the main discepancy between my final forecast and the actual accumulation map is that the totals I forecasted generally were not reached in the western part of my 4-6" range on the map. This includes most of Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston, and Oakland Counties. Generally, totals for these areas ranged from 3-4", when I forecasted 4-6". This does include Lake Orion, but according to the official spotter reports received by the NWS, Lake Orion got 5.0" of snow from this storm, and Clarkston got 4.1", so I do believe the Lake Orion area did fall into my forecast of 4-6".
In retrospect, what I would have done differently is to lower my 4-6" accumulation area to a 3-5" accumulation area. Although the 4-6" forecast verified across roughly half of the area, a 3-5" forecast would have verified across much more of the area.
Other than that change, I feel that the northern portion of my snowfall map verified nicely for the most part. I personally would give myself a "B" grade for my forecast of this storm, as although I overforecasted in some areas, the National Weather Service tended to underforecast up until right before the storm (their forecast was 2-3" until right before the storm when they upped their forecast to 3-5"). So, I feel that I did decent forecasting this storm, considering my forecasted accumulations were so different from the NWS's until right before the storm.
Would you give me a different grade? If so, why? Feedback is welcomed in the comments section below. I have to approve all comments to prevent spam, but I will approve your comment and respond to any questions asked.
Source for the snowfall map & spotter reports: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=62628&source=0
5 comments:
A - Predicted 4"-6" of snow, got 5". Predicted no snow day, had school. As far as final outcomes, you were right on target.
I think your forecast was better than most that I heard. A channel 7 newsperson actually said "we really don't know where this storm will fall until it happens” so, if the "professionals" couldn't accurately predict it, I wouldn't expect precision from you. Not to mention, your reports give much more detail that allows me to plan my day not only when I’m staying in the Lake Orion area but when it reaches outside of our general area whereas the local stations cover what I call hot spots leaving the vast majority of our area uncovered. I love reading your predications, especially days in advance, even when they are not “guaranteed” as it allows me to make adjustments that I normally wouldn’t know about. I didn’t hear about this past snowfall until the day before whereas you were several days out. For instance, I have important appointments scheduled Tuesday but since your posting, I have adjusted my schedule to allow for potential problems. Bottom line, I love your blog, I check it multiple times a day just to see what’s happening, and I don’t expect you to be 100% accurate 100% of the time…what fun is that??? Thanks for all your hard work!
Thanks for the compliments guys.
You did an amazing job! I give you an A! Keep up the great work! I really hope you continue this blog until you graduate and then get a job forecasting in this area.
When will you be giving us more information about Tuesday?
Hey i go to school with Estee! Could you make it snow more so we dont have to go to school tomorrow...PLEASE!
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