SE Michigan Returns To An Active Pattern

After nearly a month of only minor snow events, it is becoming increasingly likely that SE Michigan could see a notable snow event in about a week. For several days now, the major forecast models have shown the possibility of a low pressure system tracking through Minnesota/Wisconsin/The UP of Michigan and giving SE Michigan a potentially significant snow event. Seeing that this event is about a week out, I won't make any attempt to forecast snow events yet, but will explain what the models are showing and why I am starting to become confident in a winter storm affecting SE Michigan next weekend.

Also, I will warn people now that if this system gives SE Michigan a snowstorm, the most likely timeframe for the snowstorm to happen is next Saturday. Therefore, unless this is an extremely strong event, a snow day is unlikely with this storm. However, since I will be in Lake Orion until next Sunday, I will certainly be paying attention to this storm and blogging about it.

Now, for those of you who regularly follow the weather in SE Michigan, you are probably wondering just how a low pressure system can track through Minnesota, or Wisconsin, or the U.P., and still give SE Michigan a snowstorm threat. Normally, when a storm system takes that track, it means a rainstorm for SE Michigan. However, two things support this system being different. First, there is going to be a cold airmass over SE Michigan for over a week before next weekend's storm hits. This will make it harder for any warm air advection accompanying the low pressure system to push temperatures above freezing. Second, and in my opinion, more importantly, the energy associated with this low pressure system is what's known as a low amplitude wave. This means that the wave will not dig as much, resulting in less warm air advection, and allowing for snow to the south and east of the low track, unlike with most low pressure systems. However, I am still skeptical of SE Michigan getting snow from a low pressure track so far to the NW. Although all models have shown us getting snow despite the low pressure track, I cannot help but feel that it wouldn't take much of a change to give us potential mixing issues. At this time, potential mixing issues are the biggest problem I can see with this storm.

More certain to me is the track and strength of the storm. Again, if you've been following the weather this winter, you know that the main problem lately for SE Michigan is that storms have been tracking way to the south. That won't be an issue with this storm, as the energy associated with it will be entering the U.S. at a farther north latitude than other energy lately. With regards to strength, the GFS forecast model has consistently been showing a fairly strong (sub 1000 mb) low pressure system, so as of right now, I feel that it is likely that someone will get a good snowstorm out of this.

I will likely have another post up sometime tomorrow afternoon. Until then, feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments section below, they are always appreciated.