Note: The following post will be fairly long and rambling, so if you don't want to read it...the quick summary is that I'm retiring from snow day blogging. The following paragraphs describe my reasoning for doing so.
As some of you have likely noticed, since the "snowpocalypse" storm back in early February, my blog postings have become less frequent. Some of you probably wondered what was up, and essentially, I've just kind of lost my passion for doing the blog and as such I'm just going to make this my final post, instead of waiting until winter is over to end the blog.
So, some of you will probably now want to know exactly why I'm ending the blog, and I believe I definitely owe you an explanation if you want one, as you're the reason this blog exists. While it's kind of complicated to explain, I'll attempt to do my best in the following paragraphs.
As some of you likely know, the popularity of the blog exploded due to the "snowpocalypse" storm. As far as I know, the blog was (a) talked about on a Detroit radio station (b) featured in an online article and (c) mentioned on the Twitter page of a Detroit meteorologist. In addition, I was contacted by a Detroit TV station about the possibility of them interviewing me about the blog, although the interview never happened. The newfound popularity of the blog was somewhat overwhelming to me, as I've always been somewhat of a shy person. Essentially, I never really meant for the blog to become anything more than an easier way for people I know to view my snow day predictions, but obviously it ended up becoming way more popular than that.
And basically, what has been happening is that the popularity of the blog has been putting a lot of pressure on me. The worst part of making an incorrect weather forecast, in my opinion, is knowing that you've let people down. And basically, I can deal with making an incorrect forecast for people I know, because I can apologize to them and they know I'm far from a professional forecaster. But I hate the thought of random people I don't know at all in real life relying on my forecasts, because that essentially makes me equal to a professional meteorologist, when in all reality I don't even start taking most of my college meteorology courses until two years from now. Basically, due to the popularity of this blog people were listening to my forecasts & predictions like I was a professional meteorologist, when in reality meteorology is currently just a hobby for me, and will be until I graduate from college in 3 years. So, in conclusion, I just think that this blog has gotten too big for me to handle, and as such, I think the proper thing for me to do is to retire from blogging.
Finally, I'd like to sincerely thank everyone who has ever viewed the blog. I know this may seem counterintuitive, since the reason I'm ending the blog is because too many people were viewing it, but honestly, it's great to know that people cared about the work I did enough to read it, and in some cases give me feedback about it and recommend it to other people. Over the nearly three years I did this blog, it helped me receive a scholarship here at Oklahoma. It also helped me get to know many new people. Finally, it helped me gain a vast amount of forecasting knowledge and experience. This blog never would have lasted as long as it did without so many people caring about it, and writing for it really was very enjoyable most of the time.
Although I believe I explained the reasoning behind my decision fairly well, if anyone has any other questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section below and I will certainly be willing to answer them.
Signing Off,
John Schlenner
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Tomorrow
I feel almost everyone in SE Michigan will have school tomorrow, except for the districts in rural areas...particularly in the Thumb as they were the jackpot winners with totals from 12-14". I do have to say that I overforecasted almost everyone by a couple of inches. Yes almost everyone got 2 snow days but I am still disappointed in my forecast as almost anyone could have called those snow days. The main thing I was looking for was for my map to verify, and it largely did not. I personally feel I only deserve about a C- grade for this forecast, and I will certainly look to do better next time. Hopefully I don't lose any followers due to this, but I understand if you are disappointed.
Feel free to leave questions & comments below.
I'm currently preoccupied but will make sure to upload the actual snowfall map compared to my map with a breakdown of where I predicted correctly and where I busted badly later.
Feel free to leave questions & comments below.
I'm currently preoccupied but will make sure to upload the actual snowfall map compared to my map with a breakdown of where I predicted correctly and where I busted badly later.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Note
Due to a fact that there is an Oklahoma basketball game tomorrow, my next video will be up at around 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time as opposed to the usual 7-8 p.m.
In addition, I have come to the conclusion that the power may in fact go out here...due to the fact that the power has gone out across the street. So, there is the possibility that there will be no video tomorrow, but hopefully I will get one up. I do have a full charge on my laptop, but believe that the Wi-Fi would go out if I lose power...although I may be incorrect in that assumption. Anyways...if there's no video up by 4:30 p.m. tomorrow...there won't be one at all tomorrow, but the plan is to get one up by all means possible.
Edit @ 3:44 Eastern Time to say: It turns out there was enough snow in Norman to postpone the game, giving me more time to polish the blog. Therefore the new post will be up slightly later between 5 and 6 p.m. Hope this works for most people.
In addition, I have come to the conclusion that the power may in fact go out here...due to the fact that the power has gone out across the street. So, there is the possibility that there will be no video tomorrow, but hopefully I will get one up. I do have a full charge on my laptop, but believe that the Wi-Fi would go out if I lose power...although I may be incorrect in that assumption. Anyways...if there's no video up by 4:30 p.m. tomorrow...there won't be one at all tomorrow, but the plan is to get one up by all means possible.
Edit @ 3:44 Eastern Time to say: It turns out there was enough snow in Norman to postpone the game, giving me more time to polish the blog. Therefore the new post will be up slightly later between 5 and 6 p.m. Hope this works for most people.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Thundersleet In Norman
Here's some of what I'm getting in Norman, the thunder/lightning is at :20 and again at 1:35.
Next Post
The next post, which will be another video forecast, will be up around 7 p.m. Eastern Time again.
Edit: As of 5:36 p.m. Eastern Time...I may have to push the video back, as I had some things come up which has made me get a later start on my preparation than I expected. The video should still be up by 8:00. I will post another update here when I start filming...at that point the video should be up within 20 minutes of that post. I am sorry for any inconvience this may cause.
Edit 2: The video will be up at 7:55 Eastern Time.
Edit: As of 5:36 p.m. Eastern Time...I may have to push the video back, as I had some things come up which has made me get a later start on my preparation than I expected. The video should still be up by 8:00. I will post another update here when I start filming...at that point the video should be up within 20 minutes of that post. I am sorry for any inconvience this may cause.
Edit 2: The video will be up at 7:55 Eastern Time.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
New Video
I am predicting 12-16" of snow on Wednesday. Snow Day Grades: A on Wednesday, A on Thursday, B on Friday. Be nice about the fact that my eye contact was lacking as this was the first time I've read off a script...I will memorize the script more in tomorrow's forecast.
Next Post
The next post, which will come in the form of a video forecast, will be up around 7:00 p.m. tonight (Eastern Time).
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Potentially Historic Storm Set To Punish SE Michigan
Hello to all. Since last night the trend on the forecast models have come into much better agreement with regards to SE Michigan getting a potentially historic winter storm. Nearly all reputable models now show SE Michigan receiving over a foot of snow over a long multiday period that will likely range from Monday Night into early Thursday Morning. I already explained last night why this storm has the potential to be so notable, and it appears that it will indeed be a notable storm for SE Michigan...perhaps historically so. Tonight's post will focus on showcasing just how much snow could fall on SE Michigan, what the 5 major models show, an extremely preliminary snowfall forecast, and the adverse effects this storm could have on SE Michigan.
How Much Snow SE Michigan Could Receive:
It appears that there will be two waves of snow with this winter. The warm-up act before the main show will occur on Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning. As warm moist air advects northward from the Gulf of Mexico, snow will likely break out over much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The following image from the NAM model, valid at 1:00 a.m. Tuesday Morning, shows this nicely.
How Much Snow SE Michigan Could Receive:
It appears that there will be two waves of snow with this winter. The warm-up act before the main show will occur on Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning. As warm moist air advects northward from the Gulf of Mexico, snow will likely break out over much of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The following image from the NAM model, valid at 1:00 a.m. Tuesday Morning, shows this nicely.
There is an incredible spread between the models in the amount of snow that will fall on Monday Night into early Tuesday Morning. The NAM shows about 5-8" falling, which would be a winter storm warning criteria event in and of itself. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show only about 1" of snow falling in this time period. I personally believe that the NAM is overdoing the amount of precipitation that will fall in this timeframe, while the GFS and ECMWF are underdoing it. I feel that about 2-4" of snow is likely to fall during this timeframe. A snow day on Tuesday is unlikely, but not out of the question if the NAM's current depiction of events is close to reality.
The second wave of snow, which will start early on Wednesday Morning and continue well into Wednesday Evening, is the one that is really going to bring the pain to SE Michigan. Almost every model over the last day has shown SE Michigan getting about 12-18 hours of extremely heavy snow on Wednesday. The following image from the GFS model, valid at 7 a.m. Wednesday Morning, showcases this nicely.
I really can't understate how impressive this period of snow could be for you guys. Snowfall rates over 1"/hour are likely to occur for an extended period of time, centered around the Wednesday Morning rush hour, which will essentially make travel impossible at that time. Convective snow is possible, which means you may hear some thunder along with the snow. Winds will also be howling throughout the event, creating localized whiteout conditions.
What The Five Major Models Show:
GFS:
The GFS has minor snowfall accumulations on Monday Night, then tracks the low pressure system from Northern Louisiana, to Northern Mississippi, to Central Kentucky, to Southern Ohio, to Southern Pennsylvania. The best snows occur just south of Lake Orion, but Lake Orion would still make out nicely if the GFS scenario happened with about 1" of snow on Monday Night and about 10-14" of snow on Wednesday.
ECMWF:
The ECMWF is the absolutely jackpot for Lake Orion, giving the area minor snow accumulations on Monday Night, followed by the main low pressure system tracking from Little Rock, AR to the Missouri Bootheel to Terre Haute, IN to Cleveland, OH. This is a benchmark track for great snowfall in Lake Orion, and the ECMWF certainly shows that, with about 1" of snow on Monday Night and then about 14-18" of snow on Wednesday.
NAM:
As mentioned earlier, the NAM has about 5-8" of snow falling Monday Night, although I believe this is overdone somewhat. The NAM only runs out to 84 hours, so I can't say with certainty what it would show for SE Michigan on Wednesday, but I feel it would likely be close to what the ECMWF shows.
GGEM:
The GGEM is by far the biggest outlier among the five major models, tracking the low pressure system from SW Louisiana to North Carolina. The GGEM would result in little to no snow for Lake Orion, but it has little to no support from other models or its own ensembles and its handling of the southern stream energy is wacky. Therefore I will discount its solution for now.
UKMET:
The UKMET tracks the low pressure system from Arkansas into NW Pennsylvania. Precip data for the UKMET is hard to find, but based on the track I have to believe its snow totals are between the GFS and ECMWF.
Preliminary Snowfall Forecast:
Obviously the models are converging on a solution that would result in a historic winter storm for SE Michigan. As I mentioned earlier, I expect 2-4" of snow to fall on Monday Night for SE Michigan. For Wednesday's forecast, I will use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, as they both appear to have a good handle on this storm. Therefore, I am forecasting 10-18" of snow to fall on Lake Orion and much of the rest of SE Michigan on Wednesday, save for lower amounts to the north of I-69. although as the storm draws closer I hope to hone in on amounts a little better. I know 10-18" of snow falling on Lake Orion on Wednesday for a storm total of 12-22" sounds unbelievable, but this really does look like a once in a decade event for SE Michigan. There is still some bust potential, but at this point in time it would take a fairly significant shift to the north for Lake Orion to have trouble with ice as opposed to snow. Conversely, it would take a fairly significant shift to the south at this point for Lake Orion to be north of the main snow axis.
Impacts From This Storm:
Obviously, the potential impacts to SE Michigan from this storm could be fairly significant. As I mentioned earlier, snow will likely fall at a rate of over 1"/hour for an extended period of time, meaning snow plows will just not be able to keep up. I'd expect even the main roads to be a relative disaster for the Wednesday Morning commute, and Wednesday Evening may not be much better. Obviously non main roads which don't get plowed until after the storm will likely be nearly undriveable, what with 10-18" of snow accumulating on them. Winds will also be quite strong creating low wind chills and near whiteout to whiteout conditions for much of the storm.
With regards to snow days, on Monday you obviously won't get one as no snow will have fallen yet. Therefore I will set the snow day grade to an E.
On Tuesday, you have a chance, if the NAM's depiction of the initial wave of snow on Monday Night is correct. However, as I've mentioned several times before in this blog, I believe the NAM is overdoing the amount of snow that will actually fall on Monday Night. However, I will account for the fact that it could be close to correct and set the snow day grade on Tuesday to a D.
On Wednesday, I really don't think there's any doubt that you guys will have a snow day. The morning and evening commutes will be a living nightmare. I will set the snow day grade on Wednesday to an A with no hesitation.
On Thursday, while I am a little more uncertain than Wednesday, I believe the non-main roads will still largely be unplowed, and I will also set the snow day grade on Thursday to an A.
Finally, Friday. Friday is slightly tougher to call, especially 6 days out...but I will still attempt to make a best guess for Friday's chances. To do this, I will look back to the January 1st, 2008 storm, where Lake Orion received anywhere from 14-16" of snow, depending where in town you measured. That was a completely different storm setup than this one, but totals will likely be similar, so I'll use it as an example anyways. With that storm, we received a snow day on our first day back from winter break, which was three days after the storm occurred. With that in mind, I believe it is more likely than not that back roads will still be in poor enough shape for you guys to receive a third snow day on Friday. I will therefore set the snow day grade to a B for now, although this by far is the day I feel least confident about.
Day By Day Snow Day Grades:
Monday: E
Tuesday: D
Wednesday: A
Thursday: A
Friday: B
In summary, I am highly confident that SE Michigan will receive a significant, long lasting winter storm. If the upper end of my possible accumulations is reached, this storm could potentially be historic. Due to this, travel will obviously be significantly affected, and I am highly confident that Lake Orion will see at least two snow days in the upcoming week.
On a final note, although I know I am forecasting extremely significant accumulations, please do not use this blog for emergency planning. Although my weather knowledge has grown significantly over the past few years, I am still definitely an amateur. Listen to what the professionals tell you over the next few days with regards to what preparations you should make, because they have a lot more weather knowledge than me. I expect this storm to get significant media coverage starting tomorrow.
As always, feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments section below. Thanks for reading, and stay tuned to the blog over the next several days.
Next Update
Since I'm sure people have been hearing about the potential for a major winter storm over the last day or so, I'm sure everyone is waiting for the next update...therefore I will post when I plan to have the next update.
At this time, I plan on having the update up between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
I am anticipating a major long duration winter storm for Lake Orion from Monday Night through Thursday Morning, and am highly confident that at least one snow day will occur, and likely more. More details to come in the next update.
At this time, I plan on having the update up between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
I am anticipating a major long duration winter storm for Lake Orion from Monday Night through Thursday Morning, and am highly confident that at least one snow day will occur, and likely more. More details to come in the next update.
Musings
For the main post on this storm, scroll down below. This will just be me listing off some quick updates.
There has been slightly greater model agreement tonight, but in general forecasting this storm is still a nightmare, which is to be expected because we are still 4.5 days out from impact in SE Michigan, and this storm is going to be very strong...and those storms are always tough to forecast. With each new set of model runs, I become more convinced that SE Michigan will not see any ice or rain. This is a very good thing because this storm will deliver a crippling ice storm to many many areas, potentially including myself in Oklahoma. However, when the question turns to just how much snow you guys will see, that's where the nightmares start. The 00z GFS has Lake Orion getting about 3" of snow while the 00z ECMWF has Lake Orion getting about 21" of snow. And as ridiculous as it sounds to say this...4.5 days out I could easily see Lake Orion getting anywhere from 3" to 21" of snow. Both the GFS and ECMWF have completely realistic solutions, although I personally still favor a solution between the two. And yes, I did say that the ECMWF's solution with 21" of snow is realistic. This storm is strong enough and has a tremendous moisture feed that I do believe someone will get jackpot totals over over 18". Obviously we won't know whom that will be for a few days.
I personally think that SE Michigan has a good chance of getting a significant winter storm around next Wednesday. I am much more confident about this than I was earlier tonight. Stay tuned for updates.
There has been slightly greater model agreement tonight, but in general forecasting this storm is still a nightmare, which is to be expected because we are still 4.5 days out from impact in SE Michigan, and this storm is going to be very strong...and those storms are always tough to forecast. With each new set of model runs, I become more convinced that SE Michigan will not see any ice or rain. This is a very good thing because this storm will deliver a crippling ice storm to many many areas, potentially including myself in Oklahoma. However, when the question turns to just how much snow you guys will see, that's where the nightmares start. The 00z GFS has Lake Orion getting about 3" of snow while the 00z ECMWF has Lake Orion getting about 21" of snow. And as ridiculous as it sounds to say this...4.5 days out I could easily see Lake Orion getting anywhere from 3" to 21" of snow. Both the GFS and ECMWF have completely realistic solutions, although I personally still favor a solution between the two. And yes, I did say that the ECMWF's solution with 21" of snow is realistic. This storm is strong enough and has a tremendous moisture feed that I do believe someone will get jackpot totals over over 18". Obviously we won't know whom that will be for a few days.
I personally think that SE Michigan has a good chance of getting a significant winter storm around next Wednesday. I am much more confident about this than I was earlier tonight. Stay tuned for updates.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Major Winter Storm To Affect Much Of The U.S. Next Week
Hi everyone. In the last day or so, all major forecast models have come to a consensus that a major winter storm will affect a wide swath of the country during next week. However, there are major differences among the models with regards to where the storm will track. With that in mind, today I am going to take a look at how the storm will form and why it's going to be such a major storm. In addition, I will mention my personal opinion on what I think is going to happen with this storm, and potential impacts for Lake Orion.
Disclaimer: The first three sections deal with in-depth weather terminology, though I have attempted to make everything as simple as possible through helpful graphics. The final two sections are much more similar to my normal blogging style.
How The Storm Will Form:
Essentially, two pieces of energy in the upper level of the atmosphere are going to combine over the Western U.S., which is the basis for the storm. This is shown in the image below from the NAM model. I have circled the two individual pieces of energy for the sake of simplicity.
However, this is not a perfect phase between the two pieces of energy. As represented by the blue circle on the GFS model in the image below, a lot of upper-level energy is left behind in the Southwest U.S. The fact that so much energy is left behind means that the storm is not as strong as it could possibly be if a more aggressive phase took place. The energy that does phase is shown by the red circle in the image below (this is the energy that was represented by the blue circles in image one.
Why It Will Be Such A Major Storm:
Despite the storm likely not being as strong as it could possibly be, this is still likely to be a major winter storm. I will use the image below from the NAM model to try and explain why. First, look at the blue polygon I placed over the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas. This polygon is meant to draw attention to the strongy baroclinic zone over the region in the polygon, which is represented on the map by the tightly packed blue and red lines. Basically, the baroclinic zone represents the temperature gradient...and a strong baroclinic zone favors a strengthening system. In this case, the baroclinic zone is obviously very strong which favors a strengthening system.
Second, look at the curved green lines I have drawn which extend from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Ohio Valley. These lines were made to draw your attention to the excellent moisture feed extending from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Northern U.S. ahead of the storm. Southerly low level winds will bring up warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northern U.S. The low level wind direction is shown on this map, and in case you do not know what it looks like...I circled one of the symbols in black in Southwest Louisiana. The wind blows from the direction of the part of the line without any bars on it...for example, in Southwest Louisiana, the wind is blowing from the SSW. The take home message is that the storm will be able to tap into the moist air and produce a lot of precipitation as a result.
Factors Affecting The Storm Track:
There are different factors that I believe will (a) prevent the storm from cutting too far west for SE Michigan to get a significant snowstorm and (b) also prevent the storm from tracking way to the south like previous storms. However, a miss to the south and east is still more likely for SE Michigan than a miss to the north and west. I'll explain more in a bit, but first, let's look at some images to show what I'm talking about.
The image below from the GFS model shows a 1048mb high pressure system located just north of Montana as the storm is getting its act together. As a rule, storms track around high pressure systems, and since this is a very strong high pressure system, it will likely prevent the storm from tracking too far west and giving SE Michigan a rain storm. A storm track through Chicago, for example, is unlikely in my opinion because of this strong high pressure system.
On the other hand, the image below, also from the GFS model, shows why I don't believe the storm will track way to the south like previous systems over the last month. The reason I believe this storm will track further north is because the height field is more amplified than with previous storms. This is showcased by the black line located in between the red lines that I drew for visual effect. The fact that the black line is amplified means the storm will be able to move to the north, although, as I mentioned earlier, some of the northward movement will be limited by the strong Canadian high pressure system. The simplest way to put it is that it's a balancing act between opposing forces, which is part of the reason why the storm track is so sensitive.
My Personal Track Preference For This Storm:
First, it is necessary to discuss the storm tracks of the latest GFS & ECMWF runs, as my storm track will be in comparison to those. The GFS tracks the storm from Memphis, TN to Lexington, KY to Pittsburgh, PA before transferring energy to the coast. The GFS shows little to no snow for most of SE Michigan. The ECMWF, on the other hand, tracks the storm from Little Rock, AR to Indianapolis, IN to Cleveland, OH. This is historically a great winter storm track for SE Michigan and this time would be no different, as the ECMWF shows all of SE Michigan getting over 1' of snow.
My personal preference at this time, due to the factors I mentioned above, is for a storm track that is in between the extremes shown on the ECMWF and GFS. The likely result of this track for SE Michigan would be a decent winter storm, although not to the extent of that shown on the ECMWF. Someone will almost certainly get over 1' of snow from this storm, but with my predicted storm track, that someone would likely be to the south of SE Michigan.
In Conclusion:
A major winter storm will affect a large portion of the U.S. in the middle of next week. Depending on the track, SE Michigan could get any variety of weather, ranging from cloudy skies with no snow, to a major snowstorm, to a crippling ice storm, to a dreary rainstorm.
At this time, I believe it is more likely the SE Michigan will be to the north of any snow (cloudy skies) as opposed to getting a dreary rainstorm. I also believe a snowstorm is more likely than an ice storm. All four possibilities are in play however. If I had to rank them, I would probably rank them in the following order: (1) Snowstorm, (2) Cloudy Skies, (3) Ice Storm, (4) Rain Storm. The most probable snow days that could occur from this storm are on Wednesday, February 2nd, and Thursday, February 3rd.
In conclusion, I believe at this time that a decent winter storm is becoming more likely for SE Michigan. If everything goes right, it could be a very major winter storm for SE Michigan. Despite the remaining uncertainty, this is easily the best chance for a major winter storm for SE Michigan since December 12th, 2010.
Stay tuned to the blog as I will likely have more posts and/or videos up throughout the weekend. As always, thanks a lot for taking the time to read, and please feel free to leave questions/comments in the comments section below.
Disclaimer: The first three sections deal with in-depth weather terminology, though I have attempted to make everything as simple as possible through helpful graphics. The final two sections are much more similar to my normal blogging style.
How The Storm Will Form:
Essentially, two pieces of energy in the upper level of the atmosphere are going to combine over the Western U.S., which is the basis for the storm. This is shown in the image below from the NAM model. I have circled the two individual pieces of energy for the sake of simplicity.
However, this is not a perfect phase between the two pieces of energy. As represented by the blue circle on the GFS model in the image below, a lot of upper-level energy is left behind in the Southwest U.S. The fact that so much energy is left behind means that the storm is not as strong as it could possibly be if a more aggressive phase took place. The energy that does phase is shown by the red circle in the image below (this is the energy that was represented by the blue circles in image one.
Why It Will Be Such A Major Storm:
Despite the storm likely not being as strong as it could possibly be, this is still likely to be a major winter storm. I will use the image below from the NAM model to try and explain why. First, look at the blue polygon I placed over the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas. This polygon is meant to draw attention to the strongy baroclinic zone over the region in the polygon, which is represented on the map by the tightly packed blue and red lines. Basically, the baroclinic zone represents the temperature gradient...and a strong baroclinic zone favors a strengthening system. In this case, the baroclinic zone is obviously very strong which favors a strengthening system.
Second, look at the curved green lines I have drawn which extend from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Ohio Valley. These lines were made to draw your attention to the excellent moisture feed extending from the Gulf of Mexico up into the Northern U.S. ahead of the storm. Southerly low level winds will bring up warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northern U.S. The low level wind direction is shown on this map, and in case you do not know what it looks like...I circled one of the symbols in black in Southwest Louisiana. The wind blows from the direction of the part of the line without any bars on it...for example, in Southwest Louisiana, the wind is blowing from the SSW. The take home message is that the storm will be able to tap into the moist air and produce a lot of precipitation as a result.
Factors Affecting The Storm Track:
There are different factors that I believe will (a) prevent the storm from cutting too far west for SE Michigan to get a significant snowstorm and (b) also prevent the storm from tracking way to the south like previous storms. However, a miss to the south and east is still more likely for SE Michigan than a miss to the north and west. I'll explain more in a bit, but first, let's look at some images to show what I'm talking about.
The image below from the GFS model shows a 1048mb high pressure system located just north of Montana as the storm is getting its act together. As a rule, storms track around high pressure systems, and since this is a very strong high pressure system, it will likely prevent the storm from tracking too far west and giving SE Michigan a rain storm. A storm track through Chicago, for example, is unlikely in my opinion because of this strong high pressure system.
On the other hand, the image below, also from the GFS model, shows why I don't believe the storm will track way to the south like previous systems over the last month. The reason I believe this storm will track further north is because the height field is more amplified than with previous storms. This is showcased by the black line located in between the red lines that I drew for visual effect. The fact that the black line is amplified means the storm will be able to move to the north, although, as I mentioned earlier, some of the northward movement will be limited by the strong Canadian high pressure system. The simplest way to put it is that it's a balancing act between opposing forces, which is part of the reason why the storm track is so sensitive.
My Personal Track Preference For This Storm:
First, it is necessary to discuss the storm tracks of the latest GFS & ECMWF runs, as my storm track will be in comparison to those. The GFS tracks the storm from Memphis, TN to Lexington, KY to Pittsburgh, PA before transferring energy to the coast. The GFS shows little to no snow for most of SE Michigan. The ECMWF, on the other hand, tracks the storm from Little Rock, AR to Indianapolis, IN to Cleveland, OH. This is historically a great winter storm track for SE Michigan and this time would be no different, as the ECMWF shows all of SE Michigan getting over 1' of snow.
My personal preference at this time, due to the factors I mentioned above, is for a storm track that is in between the extremes shown on the ECMWF and GFS. The likely result of this track for SE Michigan would be a decent winter storm, although not to the extent of that shown on the ECMWF. Someone will almost certainly get over 1' of snow from this storm, but with my predicted storm track, that someone would likely be to the south of SE Michigan.
In Conclusion:
A major winter storm will affect a large portion of the U.S. in the middle of next week. Depending on the track, SE Michigan could get any variety of weather, ranging from cloudy skies with no snow, to a major snowstorm, to a crippling ice storm, to a dreary rainstorm.
At this time, I believe it is more likely the SE Michigan will be to the north of any snow (cloudy skies) as opposed to getting a dreary rainstorm. I also believe a snowstorm is more likely than an ice storm. All four possibilities are in play however. If I had to rank them, I would probably rank them in the following order: (1) Snowstorm, (2) Cloudy Skies, (3) Ice Storm, (4) Rain Storm. The most probable snow days that could occur from this storm are on Wednesday, February 2nd, and Thursday, February 3rd.
In conclusion, I believe at this time that a decent winter storm is becoming more likely for SE Michigan. If everything goes right, it could be a very major winter storm for SE Michigan. Despite the remaining uncertainty, this is easily the best chance for a major winter storm for SE Michigan since December 12th, 2010.
Stay tuned to the blog as I will likely have more posts and/or videos up throughout the weekend. As always, thanks a lot for taking the time to read, and please feel free to leave questions/comments in the comments section below.
Potential Storm Around Wednesday
There is still the definitive possibility of a winter storm affecting SE Michigan sometime next week. However, due to a complex scenario, the forecast models have been jumping all over the place with an incredible spread of solutions. Essentially, two pieces of energy have the potential to phase and form a storm, and since the pieces are pretty strong, the resulting storm could be rather significant. In general, the more these two pieces combine, the farther north and west the storm would track. An alternative scenario is that the two pieces don't combine at all and the storm tracks well to the south of SE Michigan. Essentially, you guys could get anything from cloudy/cold conditions, to a major snowstorm, to a major rainstorm.
Since the two pieces of energy are currently over the Pacific Ocean and unable to be sampled well, there is not too much data being fed in to the forecast models right now, and as a result, there has been maddening inconsistency from run to run. For example, this morning's run of the ECMWF had a low pressure system tracking from Northern Mexico to Georgia, while this evening's run had the low tracking from St. Louis to Chicago, a shift of thousands of miles. In general, this evening's model runs have shown more favorable solutions for you guys to receive a winter storm around Wednesday, but there is still a ton of uncertainty. A great example of this is that since I wrote my last blog yesterday afternoon the models have shifted the timeframe of this storm back about a day.
Hopefully there will be some more certainty as to what will affect you guys around next Wednesday by the time I write another blog tomorrow afternoon...as I plan to have a much more detailed discussion then. It may be a video post as well...it depends on what I feel like doing.
Since the two pieces of energy are currently over the Pacific Ocean and unable to be sampled well, there is not too much data being fed in to the forecast models right now, and as a result, there has been maddening inconsistency from run to run. For example, this morning's run of the ECMWF had a low pressure system tracking from Northern Mexico to Georgia, while this evening's run had the low tracking from St. Louis to Chicago, a shift of thousands of miles. In general, this evening's model runs have shown more favorable solutions for you guys to receive a winter storm around Wednesday, but there is still a ton of uncertainty. A great example of this is that since I wrote my last blog yesterday afternoon the models have shifted the timeframe of this storm back about a day.
Hopefully there will be some more certainty as to what will affect you guys around next Wednesday by the time I write another blog tomorrow afternoon...as I plan to have a much more detailed discussion then. It may be a video post as well...it depends on what I feel like doing.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Much More Active Pattern Upcoming For SE Michigan
After a two week period of relatively quiet weather in SE Michigan, with no storms of over 2" occurring since January 12th, the weather pattern looks to get more active in the upcoming week. Up to three systems will affect the area over the next week, with each system packing a potentially bigger punch than the last. Let's look at these systems in order.
System One:
A weak system will drop out of Canada and track just to the north of Lake Orion tomorrow. This system will be enough to give all of SE Michigan a 1-2" snowfall tomorrow afternoon. Impacts will be fairly light, but I would expect a slower than usual afternoon/evening commute due to the snow that will be falling. Obviously there will not be a snow day from this storm, but it is still worth mentioning.
Expected Track of System One:
System One:
A weak system will drop out of Canada and track just to the north of Lake Orion tomorrow. This system will be enough to give all of SE Michigan a 1-2" snowfall tomorrow afternoon. Impacts will be fairly light, but I would expect a slower than usual afternoon/evening commute due to the snow that will be falling. Obviously there will not be a snow day from this storm, but it is still worth mentioning.
Expected Track of System One:
Snowfall Map for System One:
System Two:
A stronger piece of energy will drop out of Canada on Thursday Night and track to the south of the first piece of energy. This system will be weakening as it passes just to the south of the MI/OH border early Saturday Morning, but will still be stronger than the first system, which means dynamics will allow for a higher intensity snowfall than with the first system. At this time I am expecting about 3-4" of snowfall to fall over all of SE Michigan during a 15 hour period from around 11 p.m. Friday Night to around 2 p.m. Saturday Afternoon. Impacts from this system will be moderate, with travel likely being hazardous during the snow and until the road commission can get the snow cleared. Obviously there will not be a snow day from this storm, but it is still worth mentioning.
Expected Track of System Two:
Snowfall Map for System Two:
System Three:
This could be by far the best system out of the three, but is also the one with the most bust potential. Essentially, SE Michigan needs northern stream energy to combine with southern stream energy for a good snowstorm to happen. If this does not happen, then the system will go to the south again, which is essentially why SE Michigan has not seen any 5"+ snowstorms since 12/12/2010. At this time, I think that the pattern may be becoming more favorable for a phased system tracking through the Great Lakes, which could result in a snowstorm affecting you guys around next Tuesday Night. It's still way too early for this to be anything more than speculation, but the potential is definitely there.
Beyond these three systems, the pattern is definitely becoming more favorable for SE Michigan snowstorms, which potentially could result in a good February like the one we had last year, where we got two 7" snowstorms and two snow days. Stay tuned.
Next Post
With some activity upcoming in both the medium and long range the plan is to have a new post up by 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) tomorrow.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Cold Day?
I don't predict cold days ever as a rule, but there is a chance for you guys to get one tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
System on Thursday Night
Northern stream energy is going to try and phase (combine) with southern stream energy, which will likely give a lot of people a nice snowstorm on Thursday-Friday. Essentially, the better the phase between these two pieces of energy, the farther north and west this system will track. At this time, I do not feel that a major snowfall for SE Michigan from this system is particularly likely, as the system will likely track too far south to give SE Michigan a good hit. However, it is something to keep an eye on. In any case, you guys will likely receive at least minor accumulations from it on Thursday Night.
Beyond that, the next system looks to impact SE Michigan around next Monday.
Beyond that, the next system looks to impact SE Michigan around next Monday.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Winter Weather Advisory
Much of SE Michigan, including Lake Orion, is under a Winter Weather Advisory tomorrow morning for minor ice accumulations. While it only takes a little bit of ice to get a day off of school, I really think this will be a minor event to the point where you guys will likely have school tomorrow. I expect only a coating of ice on the roads, which I don't believe they will cancel school for. There's a small chance of a snow day, but my prediction is that you guys will have to go to school tomorrow.
Beyond that, there is a low chance of a decent storm affecting you guys around Thursday Night. Energy diving out of Canada is expected to partially phase with energy coming out of the Southwest U.S. resulting in a decent storm for much of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. While I don't currently expect Lake Orion to see a lot from this storm, there are some encouraging signs pointing to a more complete phase between the two pieces of energy. The main axis of snow is currently expected to affect the I-70 corridor, so it would have to be a pretty large northward shift for Lake Orion to get in on some good accumulations, but it's not out of the question. The better the two pieces of energy phase, the farther north the system tracks and the better the chances of snow for Lake Orion on Thursday Night. If this evening's models look more promising for SE Michigan, I may write a more complete discussion out later tonight.
For now, here's a video...it doesn't go much more in-depth than what I posted above, but if you're more of a visual person, you may prefer the video. As always, questions and comments are welcomed below...as long as the subject isn't how goofy I look in the screencap below...smh
Beyond that, there is a low chance of a decent storm affecting you guys around Thursday Night. Energy diving out of Canada is expected to partially phase with energy coming out of the Southwest U.S. resulting in a decent storm for much of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. While I don't currently expect Lake Orion to see a lot from this storm, there are some encouraging signs pointing to a more complete phase between the two pieces of energy. The main axis of snow is currently expected to affect the I-70 corridor, so it would have to be a pretty large northward shift for Lake Orion to get in on some good accumulations, but it's not out of the question. The better the two pieces of energy phase, the farther north the system tracks and the better the chances of snow for Lake Orion on Thursday Night. If this evening's models look more promising for SE Michigan, I may write a more complete discussion out later tonight.
For now, here's a video...it doesn't go much more in-depth than what I posted above, but if you're more of a visual person, you may prefer the video. As always, questions and comments are welcomed below...as long as the subject isn't how goofy I look in the screencap below...smh
Note:
Obviously there is not going to be a snow day for you guys on Tuesday...the storm is now looking like a huge slop storm, giving SE Michigan a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
I have a bunch of stuff to do to get ready for my new semester at Oklahoma tomorrow but I will try to get a short video up.
I have a bunch of stuff to do to get ready for my new semester at Oklahoma tomorrow but I will try to get a short video up.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Reviewing My January 11th Forecast
Here was my final snowfall map:
Here is the actual accumulation map:
As you can see, the main discepancy between my final forecast and the actual accumulation map is that the totals I forecasted generally were not reached in the western part of my 4-6" range on the map. This includes most of Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston, and Oakland Counties. Generally, totals for these areas ranged from 3-4", when I forecasted 4-6". This does include Lake Orion, but according to the official spotter reports received by the NWS, Lake Orion got 5.0" of snow from this storm, and Clarkston got 4.1", so I do believe the Lake Orion area did fall into my forecast of 4-6".
In retrospect, what I would have done differently is to lower my 4-6" accumulation area to a 3-5" accumulation area. Although the 4-6" forecast verified across roughly half of the area, a 3-5" forecast would have verified across much more of the area.
Other than that change, I feel that the northern portion of my snowfall map verified nicely for the most part. I personally would give myself a "B" grade for my forecast of this storm, as although I overforecasted in some areas, the National Weather Service tended to underforecast up until right before the storm (their forecast was 2-3" until right before the storm when they upped their forecast to 3-5"). So, I feel that I did decent forecasting this storm, considering my forecasted accumulations were so different from the NWS's until right before the storm.
Would you give me a different grade? If so, why? Feedback is welcomed in the comments section below. I have to approve all comments to prevent spam, but I will approve your comment and respond to any questions asked.
Source for the snowfall map & spotter reports: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=62628&source=0
Here is the actual accumulation map:
As you can see, the main discepancy between my final forecast and the actual accumulation map is that the totals I forecasted generally were not reached in the western part of my 4-6" range on the map. This includes most of Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston, and Oakland Counties. Generally, totals for these areas ranged from 3-4", when I forecasted 4-6". This does include Lake Orion, but according to the official spotter reports received by the NWS, Lake Orion got 5.0" of snow from this storm, and Clarkston got 4.1", so I do believe the Lake Orion area did fall into my forecast of 4-6".
In retrospect, what I would have done differently is to lower my 4-6" accumulation area to a 3-5" accumulation area. Although the 4-6" forecast verified across roughly half of the area, a 3-5" forecast would have verified across much more of the area.
Other than that change, I feel that the northern portion of my snowfall map verified nicely for the most part. I personally would give myself a "B" grade for my forecast of this storm, as although I overforecasted in some areas, the National Weather Service tended to underforecast up until right before the storm (their forecast was 2-3" until right before the storm when they upped their forecast to 3-5"). So, I feel that I did decent forecasting this storm, considering my forecasted accumulations were so different from the NWS's until right before the storm.
Would you give me a different grade? If so, why? Feedback is welcomed in the comments section below. I have to approve all comments to prevent spam, but I will approve your comment and respond to any questions asked.
Source for the snowfall map & spotter reports: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=62628&source=0
Multiple Chances For Snow
The active pattern continues for Lake Orion.
First, a weak low pressure system is moving through the area right now, and it will give Lake Orion up to 1" of snow tonight, which could make the morning commute tomorrow somewhat slick.
Second, a slightly stronger low pressure system will track through the Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Michigan, likely giving Lake Orion about 1-3" of additional snowfall on Saturday.
Third, and most exciting, all major forecast models have shown some type of system affecting the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As is usual this year, the models have been maddeningly inconsistent with regards to the track of this system, but I am confident that Lake Orion will see some notable weather on Tuesday. At this time, I would lean towards the precipitation type being snow, although that could change. If everything works out, this could be a rather significant storm, and could give you guys a chance of a snow day on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. This is the main system I will be keeping an eye on, and I will have another post up tomorrow afternoon.
As always, feel free to leave questions/comments in the comments section below.
First, a weak low pressure system is moving through the area right now, and it will give Lake Orion up to 1" of snow tonight, which could make the morning commute tomorrow somewhat slick.
Second, a slightly stronger low pressure system will track through the Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Michigan, likely giving Lake Orion about 1-3" of additional snowfall on Saturday.
Third, and most exciting, all major forecast models have shown some type of system affecting the Great Lakes on Tuesday. As is usual this year, the models have been maddeningly inconsistent with regards to the track of this system, but I am confident that Lake Orion will see some notable weather on Tuesday. At this time, I would lean towards the precipitation type being snow, although that could change. If everything works out, this could be a rather significant storm, and could give you guys a chance of a snow day on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. This is the main system I will be keeping an eye on, and I will have another post up tomorrow afternoon.
As always, feel free to leave questions/comments in the comments section below.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Final Prediction
I stand by pretty much everything I posted last night...the following video should supplement things nicely. I am predicting no snow day for Lake Orion tomorrow. Right now there is around 2.5" of snow on the ground...I am expecting us to end up with anywhere from 4-5" of snow...although isolated totals of over 5" of snow are possible, especially on the east side of town.
Quick Update
Just wanted to post a quick update to say that things are still on track with regards to this storm. The evening forecast models came in with similar solutions regarding snow totals in Lake Orion, and I am still expecting 4-6" here. I am still not sure why the National Weather Service is only forecasting 2-3" here, and I am also not sure why we aren't under a Winter Weather Advisory. I believe the models support what I am forecasting. So, either the NWS or I are going to be wrong, and I really think it's going to be them. The one change I saw with the evening forecast models is that the heavier snowfall amounts should extend slightly further north then I previously expected.
All in all, this looks to be a good plowable snowfall, albeit one that is unlikely to give you guys a snow day. I will have a more informative blog post or video up during the day tomorrow, and I will make my final snow day prediction around 8:30 p.m. tomorrow evening.
All in all, this looks to be a good plowable snowfall, albeit one that is unlikely to give you guys a snow day. I will have a more informative blog post or video up during the day tomorrow, and I will make my final snow day prediction around 8:30 p.m. tomorrow evening.
Monday, January 10, 2011
4-6" of snow to fall on Lake Orion
Question and comments are always appreciated and can be left below. The plan is to have a blog entry early tomorrow morning after the national championship game is over, then to have a video & final snowfall forecast/snow day prediction tomorrow evening.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Video Forecast
Questions and comments are always appreciated and can be left below. I plan on having another video forecast up around 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
SE Michigan Returns To An Active Pattern
After nearly a month of only minor snow events, it is becoming increasingly likely that SE Michigan could see a notable snow event in about a week. For several days now, the major forecast models have shown the possibility of a low pressure system tracking through Minnesota/Wisconsin/The UP of Michigan and giving SE Michigan a potentially significant snow event. Seeing that this event is about a week out, I won't make any attempt to forecast snow events yet, but will explain what the models are showing and why I am starting to become confident in a winter storm affecting SE Michigan next weekend.
Also, I will warn people now that if this system gives SE Michigan a snowstorm, the most likely timeframe for the snowstorm to happen is next Saturday. Therefore, unless this is an extremely strong event, a snow day is unlikely with this storm. However, since I will be in Lake Orion until next Sunday, I will certainly be paying attention to this storm and blogging about it.
Now, for those of you who regularly follow the weather in SE Michigan, you are probably wondering just how a low pressure system can track through Minnesota, or Wisconsin, or the U.P., and still give SE Michigan a snowstorm threat. Normally, when a storm system takes that track, it means a rainstorm for SE Michigan. However, two things support this system being different. First, there is going to be a cold airmass over SE Michigan for over a week before next weekend's storm hits. This will make it harder for any warm air advection accompanying the low pressure system to push temperatures above freezing. Second, and in my opinion, more importantly, the energy associated with this low pressure system is what's known as a low amplitude wave. This means that the wave will not dig as much, resulting in less warm air advection, and allowing for snow to the south and east of the low track, unlike with most low pressure systems. However, I am still skeptical of SE Michigan getting snow from a low pressure track so far to the NW. Although all models have shown us getting snow despite the low pressure track, I cannot help but feel that it wouldn't take much of a change to give us potential mixing issues. At this time, potential mixing issues are the biggest problem I can see with this storm.
More certain to me is the track and strength of the storm. Again, if you've been following the weather this winter, you know that the main problem lately for SE Michigan is that storms have been tracking way to the south. That won't be an issue with this storm, as the energy associated with it will be entering the U.S. at a farther north latitude than other energy lately. With regards to strength, the GFS forecast model has consistently been showing a fairly strong (sub 1000 mb) low pressure system, so as of right now, I feel that it is likely that someone will get a good snowstorm out of this.
I will likely have another post up sometime tomorrow afternoon. Until then, feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments section below, they are always appreciated.
Also, I will warn people now that if this system gives SE Michigan a snowstorm, the most likely timeframe for the snowstorm to happen is next Saturday. Therefore, unless this is an extremely strong event, a snow day is unlikely with this storm. However, since I will be in Lake Orion until next Sunday, I will certainly be paying attention to this storm and blogging about it.
Now, for those of you who regularly follow the weather in SE Michigan, you are probably wondering just how a low pressure system can track through Minnesota, or Wisconsin, or the U.P., and still give SE Michigan a snowstorm threat. Normally, when a storm system takes that track, it means a rainstorm for SE Michigan. However, two things support this system being different. First, there is going to be a cold airmass over SE Michigan for over a week before next weekend's storm hits. This will make it harder for any warm air advection accompanying the low pressure system to push temperatures above freezing. Second, and in my opinion, more importantly, the energy associated with this low pressure system is what's known as a low amplitude wave. This means that the wave will not dig as much, resulting in less warm air advection, and allowing for snow to the south and east of the low track, unlike with most low pressure systems. However, I am still skeptical of SE Michigan getting snow from a low pressure track so far to the NW. Although all models have shown us getting snow despite the low pressure track, I cannot help but feel that it wouldn't take much of a change to give us potential mixing issues. At this time, potential mixing issues are the biggest problem I can see with this storm.
More certain to me is the track and strength of the storm. Again, if you've been following the weather this winter, you know that the main problem lately for SE Michigan is that storms have been tracking way to the south. That won't be an issue with this storm, as the energy associated with it will be entering the U.S. at a farther north latitude than other energy lately. With regards to strength, the GFS forecast model has consistently been showing a fairly strong (sub 1000 mb) low pressure system, so as of right now, I feel that it is likely that someone will get a good snowstorm out of this.
I will likely have another post up sometime tomorrow afternoon. Until then, feel free to leave questions and comments in the comments section below, they are always appreciated.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)